Daily Nifty & Rupee Outlook for 20th Oct 2011

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after gap up opening at 5077 traded positive and tested the higher resistance trend line at 5154 where closing was just at the resistance level of 5140 indicating sharp pull back in market. Today with the Asian market trading negative its expected opening sharply down side where on lower side if opening is below 5100 will bring to 5020 level on lower side where as further trading below 5000 will open the door for 4740 which is the lower trend line. Nifty is forming Bearish Flag Pattern and below the support of 4760 on closing basis will confirm the down side break out where as on higher side 5150 is the near term resistance level on closing basis from where its showing sign of reversal, where further crossover above 5170 will confirm the uptrend. Stochastic has given negative intersection are trading below 80% zone where short selloff in price can be expected.

USD/INR: Rupee yesterday tested the level just below 49 but fails to sustain below the same and closing was seen at 49.16 with the positive move in Dollar index. Today the opening is positive at 49.43 per$ but fails to cross the lower resistance of 49.5 per$ level. Immediate support is seen at 49.25per$ and further crossover below 49.25 per$ will bring to 49.1 to 48.9 on lower side. On higher side if sustain trading is seen above 49.4 will bring to 49.5 – 49.75per $ which is the resistance level and RBI intervention was seen at 50 per$, further above 50 per$ will bring to 52 to 53.5per$ in near to medium term which is expected target till the time 48.7$ holds on closing basis. I expect it to move upsdei beyond 50 in near to medium term for higher target. Dollar index after testing 76.56 gave a sharp reversal in price where yesterdays closing were seen above 77, and currently it is trading at 77.20 and is near the resistance of 77.3 level. Rupee is expected to trade in range of 49.7per$ to 49.25per$ for the day. Stochastic are trading in mid zone and with positive intersection is trading at 40% zone which indicates upside move can be expected.

Brent Crude outlook for Short term 18th Oct 2011

Brent Crude: Support 104.4 – 107.05 – 108.5

Pivot 111.2 Resistance 112.6 – 115.3 – 116.8

Brent Crude: Looking at the chart Brent Crude is trading ion consolidation move where the trend is side way to down side, where it’s forming Lower Top and Lower Bottom in long term chart looking from March 2011 onwards. Recently it has just tested the higher resistance level of 114$ and is reverting from 113.83$ which is the falling trend line and is also trading below 100 DMA of 110.3$ indicating short term top is place and is expected to test the lower support of 99$ and further on lower side trend line can be tested at 95$ in near to medium term. Till the time its holding 114$ on closing basis we maintain bearish view on Brent Crude where lower target can be expected. On the way down side it’s expected to take some minor support of 107 – 103 where as below 99 to 95 will be the support range where some buying may emerge. Stochastic which are trading in overbought zone has given negative intersection and is trading below 80% zone will bring it to lower level with fall in price what we are expecting it to test the level of 99 in near term.

EURUSD outlook for Short term 18th Oct 2011

EURO: Support 1.3490 – 1.3660 – 1.3760

Pivot 1.3830 Resistance 1.3930 – 1.4005 – 1.4175

Euro: Looking at the chart Euro is in formation of Inverted Head & Shoulder Pattern where it’s just reverted from the previous resistance level of 1.3940 which it tested in mid June and sharp selloff was seen thereafter and tested the level of 1.3145 which was the formation of Head. Left shoulder started from 1.4550 and after testing the bottom of 1.3500 reverted and tested 1.3940 from where neck line started. Sharp reversal in price was seen after testing 1.3145 levels and it’s near to the neck line area of 1.3913 days high. If the closing is seen well below the days high of 1.3913 level will confirm the pattern formation where on immediate basis it may move to test the level of 1.3500 – 1.3550 area once. Further we look to see some reversal in price from 1.3500 area and again move and test the neck line and further breakout above the neck line above 1.3900 will give sharp rise in price where 1.4400 – 1.4550 can be the upside target. We need to keep close watch on EURUSD giving closing below 1.3450 on weekly basis which will disqualify the pattern formation where next support may be at 1.3150 can be tested, may forming Double bottom formation. Stochastic which are trading in overbought zone has given negative intersection and if trading is seen below 80% zone will bring it to lower level with fall in price what we are expecting it to test the level of 1.3500 in near term.

Nifty short term out look 18th Oct 2011 (3 Months)

Nifty: Support 4960 – 4811 – 4585 Pivot 5040 Resistance 5187 – 5265 – 5492

Nifty: Looking at the chart Nifty is in formation of Bear Flag Pattern where it’s just reverted from the previous resistance level of 5156 and is trading at 5050 level. If we look at the Pole which started from the high of 5707 and tested the level of 4716 which was almost 1000 Points move, and there after it gave short bounce retracing just near to 50% of the fall where it failed to cross 5170 resistance level on closing basis. Recent rise which we have seen from 4723 point C to point D at 5156 indicate short term top is placed and is expected to test the level of lower support trend line at 4730 in near term. Further trading below 4730 – 4700 on closing basis will confirm the down trend where lower level gets open up. If we calculate the down side target after the break down taking 50 % of the Pole which comes to 500 points which will test 4800 level on lower side and 100 % fall which comes to 3700 on lower side. To be optimistic I am look Nifty to test 4200 as strong support and some consolidation move in lower band of 4200 to 4500 for few days and there after further trading below 4200 on weekly closing will bring to 4000 and 3700 in medium term. Stochastic which are trading in overbought zone has given negative intersection and is trading below 80% zone will bring it to lower level with fall in price what we are expecting it to test the level of 4200 in near term.

NIfty Overview for 13th Oct 2011

Nifty Sell @ 5100 - 5105 stop @ 5130 tgt 5060 - 5020

Nifty is facing ressitance @ 5140 level and its no expected to trade abvoe 5140 where days high is posted at 5135. short term rise which we were expecting is done and someshort corection can be seen in market. nifty is in consolidation mave and is reverting from higher resitance levle and can test lower trend line.

Nifty Intraday trading call 12th oct 2011

Rajeev: Nifty Buy @ 5005 TGT 5025 5045 5065 Stop Loss 4990 CMP 5005 ##

Forex outlook for the day 11th Oct 2011

EURUSD buy @ 1.3640 stop @ 1.3600 tgt 1.3680 - 1.3710 - 1.3740

only below 1.3600 will bring to 1.3550 - 1.3510 level

GBPUSD Buy @ 1.5640 stop @ 1.5600 tgt 1.5690 - 1.5740

sustain trading below 1.5580 will hamper bullish out look

AUDUSD buy @ 0.9960 stop @ 0.9900 tgt 1.0060 - 1.0150

closing below 0.9900 will give correction till 0.9800 which is unlikely

Nifty after the September expiry which was seen at 4943 where the trading range is getting narrow within the range, where on higher side resistance is seen at 5150 and support of 4820 is seen on lower side. Today with the negative Asian market its expected gap down opening and if sustain trading is seen below 4760 will move towards the lower level of 4710 to 4640 which is immediate support. Nifty is forming Symmetrical Triangle Pattern and is expected to give down side bread out. Yesterday it traded below the trend line but closing was just above the support level of 4760. If sustain trading is seen below 4760 and 4700 level will confirm the down trend. Difference of the triangle comes to 500 points and breakdown below 4760 will bring to 4250 level immediately. Stochastic has given negative intersection need the mid zone indicating down side move in price can be expected and it may move towards the oversold zone were further round of selloff can be expected in near term.

INDIAN Market over view 5th Oct 2011

Nifty CMP is 4790 resistance @# 4840 can move and test 4755 - 4720 - 4680 level in near term.

USDINR CMP is 49.4 MCX-SX expected to test 49.8 level : RBI intervention is seen at 49.9 - 50 level .. expect to test 52 shortly till the time 48.2 holds on closing basis.

Bullion's Outlook 5th Oct 2011

Gold CMP is 1620$ :: resistance is seen at 1630 and if fails to cross the same will move to test the level of 1610 - 1602 - 1590 level on lower side.

Silver CMP is29.5$ :: Resistance is seen at 30$ and till the time its trading below the same resistance level its expected to test 29 - 28.6 - 28 $ on lower side.

we maintain bearish view on both crossover above resistance level will only hamper the bearish outlook for short term.

Nifty out look for short term

Nifty after reverting from higher level of 5170 is taking support of 4800 sustain trading below 4800 will bring to 4660 - 4500 - 4350 level on lower side.. resistance of 4950 should hold on closing basis.

GBPUSD outlook for Short term 3rd Oct 2011

GBPUSD CMP is 1.5420 : GBPUSD is expect to continue the down trend in market where on lower side immediate support is seen at 1.5300 and if sustain trading is seen below 1.5300 will bring to 1.5180 - 1.5050 level on lower side, resistance of 1.5600 is seen on closing basis. we maintain bearish outlook for short term.

EURUSD outlook for Short term 3rd Oct 2011

EURUSD CMP is 1.3210 : EURUSD has broken the strong support level of 1.3400 with gap down opening indicating down trend to continue and its expected to test the level of 1.3100 and 1.2900 in near term.

INDIAN Market over view 4th Oct 2011

Nifty CMP is 4860 resistance @# 4890 can move and test 4830 - 4800 - 4760 level in near term.

USDINR CMP is 49.43 MCX-SX expected to test 49.8 level : RBI intervention is seen at 49.9 - 50 level .. expect to test 52 shortly till the time 48.2 holds on closing basis.

Bullion's Outlook 4th Oct 2011

Gold CMP is 1674$ :: resistance is seen at 1680 and if fails to cross the same will move to test the level of 1666 - 1660 - 1654 level on lower side.

Silver CMP is 31.14$ :: Resistance is seen at 31.50$ and till the time its trading below the same resistance level its expected to test 30.80 to 30.55$ on lower side.

we maintain bearish view on both crossover above resistance level will only hamper the bearish outlook for short term.