Yearly Report on FX Market USDINR

Principle of Elliot wave explained

Basic Sequence

There are two types of waves: impulse and corrective. Impulse waves move in the direction of the larger degree wave. When the larger degree wave is up, advancing waves are impulsive and declining waves are corrective. When the larger degree wave is down, impulse waves are down and corrective waves are up. Impulse waves, also called motive waves, move with the bigger trend or larger degree wave. Corrective waves move against the larger degree wave.

Three Guidelines

There are numerous guidelines, but this article will focus on three key guidelines. In contrast to rules, guidelines should hold true most of the time, not necessarily all of the time.

Guideline 1: When Wave 3 is the longest impulse wave, Wave 5 will approximately equal Wave 1.

Guideline 2: The forms for Wave 2 and Wave 4 will alternate. If Wave 2 is a sharp correction, Wave 4 will be a flat correction. If Wave 2 is flat, Wave 4 will be sharp.

Guideline 3: After a 5-wave impulse advance, corrections (abc) usually end in the area of prior Wave 4 low.

USDINR from 2012 mid was trading in the down side moving channel and have made a high of 57.32per$ and 54.8 per$ and lower side higher bottom was posted at 51.36 and 51.91per$. In may 2013 breakout was seen above the higher trend line and crossover above 54.7 per$ have given sharp uptrend which we can consider as wave I as it has been after a long consolidation. Wave I traded from 53.65 per$ low to the all time high of 68.8 per$, and there was just a short halt in this uptrend. Rupee has retraced by 50% and is taking strong support near 61per$ mark and have just tested lower level of 60.9 twice forming double bottom formation and is again showing uptrend.

                Recently its trading in the range of 63per$ resistance and support of 61per$ and once higher resistance is crossed will test the level of 68.8 all time high very soon. Only crossover below 61per$ on weekly closing basis will open the level of 59.55per$ which is 61.8% retracement of wave I and reversal might be seen from lower level of 59.55pew$ which is seem to be difficult as of now.

USDINR looking from 2008 onwards where the market has taken the rally from 39.18 and tested the level of 52.18 by Jan 2009

Yearly Report on FX Market EURGBP

EURGBP is trading in the long term down side moving channel and from November. 2008 higher trend line is tested and reversal was seen in price and on lower side support trend line was failing to cross for down trend and buying pressure was seen at lower level. The trading range was wide enough in the range of 1200 points and in recent one year from February 2013 the range has been narrow by just 400 points. It is just near the lower trend line of the short term down side falling channel where the support is seen at 0.8220 and sustain below the same will confirm the down trend to continue and will move to test the lower trend line at 0.7400 in medium to long term. 

Yearly Report on FX Market USDJPY

USDJPY from the above monthly chart was trading in the descending triangle where the falling trend line from 145 was resistance and on lower side support was seen at 101 parallel line and was looking at a bounce from the same level in year 1999 year and 2004 year but failed the hold the support and gave a breakdown below 101 and tested the level of 75 in the year 2011. There after we have seen a rise from the level of 75 and is trading near the level of 105 and is again nearing the falling trend line which is coming at 109 level. The fall from 121.1 to 75 we can consider as wave i and the recent uptrend can be expected as wave ii, wave ii has exactly retraced by 61.8% of wave I and is facing resistance at 105.5 and reversal is expected from current level only. Previous support of 101 can again be seen as a support level and sustain below the same will confirm the down trend where one can consider the start of wave iii or may say wave c as shown in the graph. If we consider 100% fall of wave I then we might look at 65 – 68 level on lower side.

On the other side if USDJPY failed to sustain below 101 and crossover above 109 will indicated the resistance is crossed and will bring fresh uptrend in market. On higher side 124 – 135 can be retested in medium to long term. As seen in the chart short term it has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern and has given a breakout above 99.6 and as per the triangle breakout it’s expected to test the level of 107.45 which is the high of the triangle. Where on crossover above the trend line weakening of JPY is expected against the Dollar, on other side Dollar index is also expected to get stronger against all the cross currency pair which is explained separately in the report. 

Yearly Report on FX Market AUDUSD

Elliott Wave Theory

The Elliot Wave Theory represents a development of the well-known Dow theory. It applies to any freely traded assets, liabilities, or goods (shares, obligations, oil, gold, etc.). The Wave Theory was proposed by accountant and business expert Ralph Nelson Elliott in his study titled "The Wave Principle" published in 1938.

After he had retired and a serious illness had been discovered in his organism, Elliott started to observe stock markets and their charts in the hope of understanding the market behavior. After he had performed a large work, he concluded that the market, being a product of predominant psychology of the masses, followed some laws.

The Elliott Wave Theory is based on a certain cyclic laws in human behavior psychology. According to Elliott, the market price behavior can be clearly estimated and shown in the chart as waves (wave is here an explicit price move). The Elliott Wave Theory says that the market can be in two large phases: Bull Market and Bear Market.

Elliott proposes, as well, that all price moves on the market are divided into:

                In the above chart there was a pattern formation of Symmetrical triangle and after the breakdown of the same the wave pattern has been started. After the crossover of support trend line at 0.9855 there was a sharp correction which can be named as wave I, there after slight pull back was seen in form of profit booking which was 50% retracement of the fall and       again reentered in the down side move. Over here the wave I bottom is taking as a support level and if this support is broken will move in form of wave III where the expected target will be 0.8160 where 1.8000 – 1.8100 will be support range and before the crossover below the same range slight bounce will be seen in form of wave IV, wave IV is not expected to cross the higher level of 0.8850 which is the bottom of wave I and is expected to reverse from the level of 0.8600 around. For the year 2014 AUDUSD is expected to be in the down side move where lower level of 0.7500 is the expected target

Wave	Classical Relations between Waves
1	-
2	0.382, 0.5, or 0.618 of Wave 1 length
3	1.618, 0.618, or 2.618 of Wave 1 length
4	0.382 or 0.5 of Wave 1 length
5	0.382, 0.5, or 0,618 of Wave 1 length
A	1, 0.618 or 0.5 of Wave 5 length
B	0.382 or 0.5 of Wave A length
C	1.618, 0.618, or 0.5 of Wave A length

Yearly Report on FX Market GBPUSD

Ascending Triangle (Continuation)

The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation.

Ascending triangle patterns are bullish patterns normally found in an uptrend. Like, symmetrical triangle, it has an apex point and a base and the minimum price movement equal to the height of base from the breakout point as shown in the picture below.

Description:          An Ascending Continuation Triangle shows two converging trendlines. The lower trendline is rising and the upper trendline is horizontal. This pattern occurs because the lows are moving increasingly higher but the highs are maintaining a constant price level. The pattern will have two highs and two lows, all touching the trendlines. This pattern is confirmed when the price breaks out of the triangle formation to close above the upper trendline. Volume is an important factor to consider. Typically, volume follows a reliable pattern: volume should diminish as the price swings back and forth between an increasingly narrow range of highs and lows. However, when breakout occurs, there should be a noticeable increase in volume. If this volume picture is not clear, investors should be cautious about decisions based on this Triangle.

Symmetrical Continuation Triangle Bullish

Introduction:        Generally, a triangle pattern is considered to be a continuation or consolidation pattern. Sometimes, however, the formation marks a reversal of a trend.

Symmetrical triangles are generally considered neutral, ascending triangles are bullish, and descending triangles are bearish. From a time perspective, triangles are usually considered to be intermediate patterns. Usually, it takes longer than a month to form a triangle. Seldom will a triangle last longer than three months. If a triangle pattern does take longer than three months to complete, Murphy advises that the formation will take on major trend significance.

Yearly Report on FX Market EURUSD

Continuation Wedge (Bearish)

A Continuation Wedge (Bearish) is considered a bearish signal, indicating that the current downtrend may continue.

Description:          A Continuation Wedge (Bearish) consists of two converging trend lines. The trend lines are slanted upward. Unlike the Triangles where the apex is pointed to the right, the apex of this pattern is slanted upwards at an angle. This is because prices edge steadily higher in a converging pattern i.e. there are higher highs and higher lows. A bearish signal occurs when prices break below the lower trendline. Over the weeks or months that this pattern forms the trend appears upwards but the long-term range is still downward.

Underlying Behavior:        In this pattern prices edge steadily higher in a converging pattern i.e. there are higher highs and higher lows indicating that bulls are winning over bears. However, at the breakout point the bears emerge the victors and the price descends.

Pattern Duration: Consider the duration of the pattern and its relationship to your trading time horizons. The duration of the pattern is considered to be an indicator of the duration of the influence of this pattern. The longer the pattern the longer it will take for the price to move to the Target. The shorter the pattern the sooner the price move. If you are considering a short-term trading opportunity, look for a pattern with a short duration. If you are considering a longer-term trading opportunity, look for a pattern with a longer duration.

Target Price:         The target price provides an important indication about the potential price move that this pattern indicates. Consider whether the target price for this pattern is sufficient to provide adequate returns after your costs (such as commissions) have been taken into account. A good rule of thumb is that the target price must indicate a potential return of greater than 5% before a pattern should be considered useful. However you must consider the current price and the volume of shares you intend to trade. Also, check that the target price has not already been achieved.

Expected Target:                EURUSD is forming a wedge pattern formation and is still in continuation of the pattern formation where is still not given a breakdown of point f at 1.3200.  If on higher side resistance of 1.3900 is holding on weekly closing basis, it will move to test the lower support level of 1.3200 and sustain below the same will give the down side breakdown of wedge pattern formation & confirming the lower level target of 1.3200 as first target then sustain below 1.3200 will move it further lower for 1.1755 level. 

IS INDIA SAFE–WHAT IS FORD FOUNDATION - by Prof Vaidyanathan

IS INDIA SAFE–WHAT IS FORD FOUNDATION

January 13, 2014 · by Prof Vaidyanathan · in NGOs/FCRA · 4 Comments 

Draft is modified from the mail written by Mr. Mohan.

Await for further editions.

Lot of tweets and buzz doing round about growing presence of Ford Foundation in India and Indian politics. Felt like doing some research on this. Trust me results have been shocking. It really raises questions – IS INDIA SAFE?

What is Ford Foundation?

Always thought that Ford Foundation was a philanthropic organization involved in charity, until I came across few of these links.

http://globalresearch.ca/articles/PET209A.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Foundation

Then I realized that in the garb of charity, their mandate is to ensure WASHINGTON’S HEGEMONY (DOMINANCE) in international market.

It was established as a front of US’ Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). The modus operandi is to fund people / professions that can influence decision making and policy making – authors, historians, journalists, social activists, media companies, publishers, etc.

Digging further on this, I got even more worried, when I saw their increasing interest and presence in Indian politics.

Here is the list of Indians/ NGOs who have been funded by or have proximity to Ford Foundation

•  Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia’s NGO – Kabeer
• Mallika Sarabhai’s Darpana
•  Yogendra Yadav was funded by ICSSR of Jawaharlal Nehru University, which in turn was funded by Ford Foundation
• Amartya Sen for its books – Ideas of Justice
•  Teesta Setalvad and Javed’s Sabrang Communication, one who has been fighting against Modi all these years

And you would know, most of these guys are part of Aam Aadmi Party or are major supporters of AAP.

This poses a very serious question on why is Ford Foundation interested in Indian Politics.

Just to do further research on members of Aam Aadmi Party, I tried to find some details on other members like Aruna Roy, Medha Patkar, Prashant Bhushan and Gopal Rai…

And this was even a bigger SHOCKER to me…

Aruna Roy is the one who had sent a petition to President PRANAB MUKHERJEE for mercy towards Ajmal Kasab.. the one who killed so many innocents in Mumbai terror attack on 26th November 2008. She was also part of Sonia Gandhi’s National Advisory Council

Here are some links pertaining to the same

http://www.kashmirtimes.in/newsdet.aspx?q=11654

Prashant Bhushan, who we all know for the rubbish referendum view on Kashmir, was also the preferred mediator of the Maoists a couple of years back. Now why would they want Prashant Bhushan?? Did they trust that Prashant Bhushan would show some soft corner towards them?

Here are the links pertaining to the same

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/prashant-bhushan-wants-referendum-on-army-presence-in-hinterland-of-kashmir/1/334580.html

http://indianexpress.com/news/maoists-name-prashant-bhushan-2-others-as-mediators/940819/

Medha Patkar – we all know her for being responsible for delay in Sardar Sarovar Dam. But something that I didn’t know earlier, I came to know when I read the link given below. It says that tribals in Chattisgarh had thrown her out of the village of Dantewada for herpro-naxal behavior.

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2010-01-07/india/28114789_1_naxal-hit-areas-narmada-bachao-andolan-tribals

There were some other articles, which suggested her proximity to Angana Chatterjee (who was suspected to be an ISI agent). But didn’t know the authenticity of the article, hence not attaching it.

Gopal Rai – Ex member of Sonia Gandhi’s NAC. Was president of All India Students Association (associated with CPI (M-L)), which is known for its pro Maoist stance..

If all this was not enough, One more article that I came across and that raised doubts on CIA’s interest in India is the one in Economic Times, that suggested that Government was giving work for Aadhar to a startup – MongoDB, which is funded by CIA’s venture fund. Links to the same are given below.

http://www.firstpost.com/economy/relax-cia-is-not-snooping-into-aadhaar-via-mongodb-1268077.html

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-12-03/news/44710564_1_uidai-chairman-nandan-nilekani-uid-data-in-q-tel

This really is giving me a sleepless nights. Just wondering, if we have so many anti nationals within the country, do we really see Pakistan and China as a bigger threat?

But then was wondering, why is media not exposing all this? But then somewhere the answer is in front of us – Manish Sisodia (ex journalist with Zee), Yogendra Yadav (ex Journalist CNN IBN), Shazia Ilmi (ex journalist) and the latest entrant Ashutosh (ex Managing Editor IBN7)…   Are they not a party to it?

Also wondered why people like Meera Sanyal (ex chief RBS) and V Bala (ex Director Infosys) joining AAP. Then came to know that Meera Sanyal’s NGO Pradan (which operates in Naxal hit belt) is funded by Ford Foundation. Also, Narayan Murthy (Chairman of Infosys) is on the board of Ford Foundation. Probably there could be his compulsion to align with them given that 60% of Infosys’business comes from US.

We all believe corruption is an issue, but nothing can be bigger that National Security.

We all want corruption free India and Aam Admi Party raised some hopes. But these news articles, really make me worried that by extending our support to AAP, are we compromising on NATIONAL SECURITY?

If people who can compromise on national security for personal gains, will they ever give you corruption free governance?

Like Ford Foundation, is AAP only a front face of some bigger conspiracy?

This time, I was thinking of seriously giving a chance to AAP… but not ANYMORE…

As a TRUE INDIAN, if this is worrying you as well, do forward it to spread awareness. Main Stream Media will not do that job