Monday, November 21, 2011
Nifty Looking to test Double Bottom at 2600 level
NW18: MCX gold down 1%, silver falls 1.5% tracking COMEX; rupee supports NewsWire18, Thursday, Nov 17
NewsWire18, Thursday, Nov 17
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By Samantha Menacherry
MUMBAI - Gold futures were trading nearly 1% lower on the MCX tracking
fall in benchmark COMEX contracts, where lower-than-expected US inflation data
Wednesday dampened market sentiment as the metal is perceived to be an
inflation hedge.
The downtrend in domestic futures was limited as the rupee depreciated
against the dollar today. The rupee ended at 50.90 per dollar compared with
50.74 Wednesday. A weak rupee makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive to
import.
At 1820 IST, December gold contract on MCX was at 28,783 rupees per 10 gm,
down 213 rupees from previous close, while the December contract on COMEX was
down $26.30 at $1,748.00 an ounce.
Gold has once again been caught in a broad-based commodity sell-off
today that was triggered due to heightened concerns over Eurozone after
Spanish bond yields surged, and as Fitch Rating agency warned that US banks
could face severe risks from the Eurozone debt crisis, analysts said.
"In the near-term, the metal may extend its fall to $1,700-$1,710 but the
impact of the sell-off may be reduced in the domestic markets due to the
ongoing depreciation in the rupee," said Rajeev Darji, senior research
analyst at X-Trade Brokers (Europe).
Good physical demand in the local markets at lower level may also provide
some support to the metal, analysts said.
Gold prices are likely to show some improvement in physical demand in
Oct-Dec due to the onset of the wedding season, Ajay Mitra, managing
director, India and West Asia, World Gold Council told reporters after the
release of the Gold Demand Trends report here today.
According to the report, the total gold demand in India fell 23% on year
to 203.3 tn in Jul-Sep.
On Wednesday, gold holdings of SPDR GoldTrust, the largest gold-backed
exchange traded fund, gained 9 tn to 1,277 tn, according to data on its
website.
Silver futures on MCX were trading 1.5% lower today mirroring COMEX
contracts, where weakness in gold and base metals pulled down prices.
"Silver had been trading in the range of $33.5-$35.0 (an ounce), but the
metal has now broken the support level of $33.5 and may extend the downtrend
to $30-$31 in the near term," Darji said.
Silver holdings of iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver
exchange-traded fund, were unchanged from previous session at 9,784 tn
Wednesday, according to data on its website.
December silver contract on MCX was at 56,267 rupees a kg, down 890 rupees.
The same-month contract on COMEX was down 75.20 cents at $33.07 an ounce.
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OUTLOOK
Gold futures on COMEX may continue to trade lower today and market will
eye key US economic data such as initial jobless claims and new residential
construction, analysts said.
December gold contract on COMEX may face resistance at $1,765 an ounce,
while support is seen at $1,730.
MCX December gold contract may face resistance at 28,960 rupees, while
support is seen at 28,500 rupees. The December silver contract on MCX is likely
to trade in the range of 55,500-57,300 rupees. End
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US$1 = 50.90 rupees
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
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Edited by Arshad Hussain
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NewsWire18 Tel +91 (22) 6637-8700
Send comments to feedback@newswire18.com
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short term out look on market for 4 quarters
Nifty out look for short term 21st Nov 2011
Nifty: Nifty this was in down trend Fridays opening was seen at 4895 level and attested the lower level of 4845 where as buying was seen at lower level where closing was seen at days high at 4221 level. Today as the Asian market is trading flat to negative where Nifty is expected to open below 4880 and will move to test immediate support of 4850 and if sustain trading below 4850 will bring to 4770 – 4720 level in near term. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4700 will open the door for 4500 in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 5000 and till the time resistance is holding we expect it to continue the down trend in market and can wait for lower expected target of 4500 in medium term. Stochastic which were in down trend just below 20% zone where further down side move expected in near to medium term time frame.
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USD/INR: Rupee which is in uptrend is facing short resistance at 51.50 per$ and yesterday after testing higher level of 51.50 closing was seen at 51.47 where days low was posted at 51.1 per$. Today’s after gap up opening near 51.51 per$ crossing the resistance at 51.5 per$ and will be in uptrend move where on lower side it’s not expected to trade below 51.3 per$ on closing basis and any dip will be buying opportunity where on higher side if sustain trading above 51 will spark the higher target of 51.75 per$ to 51.95 per$ immediately. Dollar index is trading just above 78 level at 78.25 and is taking support at 77.8 and is expected to continue the uptrend where on higher side 78.5 and 79 can be the expected target. Rupee is expected to trade in range of 51.5 per$ to 51.9$ for the day with buying at dips advise. Stochastic are trading just entered in overbought zone with positive intersection where some rise in price is expected.