Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Bear Flag Pattern Formation Breakdown @ 29900 and 29500 closing basis tgt 27275 - 24650


Bear Flag Pattern Formation Breakdown @ 29900 and 29500 closing basis tgt 27275 - 24650

Gold Head & Shoulder Pattern as well as ABC pattern showing same target 1145$


The basic "ABC" pattern is first described in H.M. Gartley's book, Profits in the Stock Market (1935). This pattern is shaped like a lightning bolt and signals a trend, a retracement and the resumption of the trend. This pattern is also called the "ABC Wave" or 1-2-3 pattern by technical analysts.
The "ABC" patterns forecast key market turning points and profit targets for traders. "ABC" patterns pinpoint important pivot levels with high and low prices and identify key trading zones.
The key point in identifying a "ABC" is correctly finding the A, B, and C pivot points in a chart. These key pivots are found using for various "pivot strength" levels, and for its correction waves. Once A, B, and C pivots are identified, an Auto-levels algorithm is applied to determine the confluence level "D". This area is called "Potential Reversal Zone" (PRZ). The "C" pivot in "ABC" patterns are determined by the Fibonacci retracement of (38.2 to 61 -8 percent) of AB swing. The projection from "C" level is measured using fib-ratios of AB and BC swings. Some traders use the confluence of these ratio levels as areas for profit taking.

1. Enter a "short" trade below the low of previous bar 1322 (38% of the AB range).
2. Place a "stop" order above level C at 1350.
3. Set "targets" at 100% of AB range (at 1233) and 1144 to 161.8% from point C range.

Head & Shoulder Pattern

It is also forming Head & Shoulder Pattern formation where the height of the Head is 152 Points ( 1434-1282) where 1282 is the midpoint of lower neckline. Breakdown is expected at 1298$ and sustain below 1298 will test 1146$ which is same target two expected by ABC pattern. Current market price is trading at 1425$ and immediate 1420 is support level. 

OIL Falling wedge Reversla Breakout expected @ 108.8$

Falling Market and falling wedge after the fall indicating a reversal in price,, Breakout at 108.80 tgt 112.5 - 117.8 CMP is 108.3 stop @ 107.5


"Falling Wedge" patterns are similar to "Symmetric Triangles" as they form in an angle; where as the "Symmetrical Triangles" form horizontally. "Falling wedge" patterns have lower highs and lower lows and are connected with two angled, slanted trend lines. These trend lines diverge at the bottom. Another type of "wedge" (inverse) pattern has trend lines converging at the bottom. The trend direction on the breakout from the "Falling Wedge" pattern would be upside.
"Falling wedges" are usually bullish in uptrend and downtrend markets. Similarly, "Falling wedge" patterns have a high failure rate. They are relatively difficult to spot them, and tend to work well in bearish markets.
Trade:
The "wedge" patterns are defined by trend. lines connecting the "higher-highs" and "lowerlows." A trend line breakout suggests a "long" trade. Trades are entered after a clear breakout from the trend line. Enter a "long" trade, one tick above the high of the breakout bar from the trend line.
Target:
Place a target at the higher "swing high" level of the "wedge" pattern. A secondary target is set at the depth of the wedge pattern from the breakout level.
Stop:
Place a "stop" order below the lowest level of the "wedge" pattern.

1. A "long" trade was entered above the breakout bars high.
2. A "stop" order was placed below the low of the "wedge" at the 107.5 level.
3. A target is set at the depth of the "wedge" pattern from the trade entry.

Targets: The length of the flagpole can be applied to the resistance break or support break of the flag/pennant to estimate the advance or decline.

Looking at the chart OIL 4hr chart is trading below the critical resistance of 108.8 and is expected to give a sharp continuation of uptrend from current level. If the resistance of 108.8 is holding and sustain trading is seen below 107 will continue in negative trend where on lower side it will move and test the lower level where it can test the level of 105 - 102 support level.