Tuesday, October 1, 2013
Gold Head & Shoulder Pattern as well as ABC pattern showing same target 1145$
The basic "ABC"
pattern is first described in H.M. Gartley's book, Profits in the
Stock Market (1935). This pattern is shaped like a lightning bolt and
signals a trend, a retracement and the resumption of the trend. This pattern is
also called the "ABC Wave" or 1-2-3 pattern by technical analysts.
The "ABC" patterns
forecast key market turning points and profit targets for traders.
"ABC" patterns pinpoint important pivot levels with high and low
prices and identify key trading zones.
The key point in identifying
a "ABC" is correctly finding the A, B, and C pivot points in a chart.
These key pivots are found using for various "pivot strength" levels,
and for its correction waves. Once A, B, and C pivots are identified, an
Auto-levels algorithm is applied to determine the confluence level
"D". This area is called "Potential Reversal Zone" (PRZ). The
"C" pivot in "ABC" patterns are determined by the Fibonacci
retracement of (38.2 to 61 -8 percent) of AB swing. The projection from
"C" level is measured using fib-ratios of AB and BC swings. Some
traders use the confluence of these ratio levels as areas for profit taking.
1. Enter a "short"
trade below the low of previous bar 1322 (38% of the AB range).
2. Place a "stop"
order above level C at 1350.
3. Set "targets" at
100% of AB range (at 1233) and 1144 to 161.8% from point C range.
Head
& Shoulder Pattern
It
is also forming Head & Shoulder Pattern formation where the height of the
Head is 152 Points ( 1434-1282) where 1282 is the midpoint of lower neckline. Breakdown
is expected at 1298$ and sustain below 1298 will test 1146$ which is same
target two expected by ABC pattern. Current market price is trading at 1425$
and immediate 1420 is support level.
OIL Falling wedge Reversla Breakout expected @ 108.8$
Falling Market and falling wedge after the fall indicating a reversal in price,, Breakout at 108.80 tgt 112.5 - 117.8 CMP is 108.3 stop @ 107.5
"Falling Wedge"
patterns are similar to "Symmetric Triangles" as they form in an
angle; where as the "Symmetrical Triangles" form horizontally.
"Falling wedge" patterns have lower highs and lower lows and are
connected with two angled, slanted trend lines. These trend lines diverge at
the bottom. Another type of "wedge" (inverse) pattern has trend lines
converging at the bottom. The trend direction on the breakout from the
"Falling Wedge" pattern would be upside.
"Falling wedges"
are usually bullish in uptrend and downtrend markets. Similarly, "Falling wedge"
patterns have a high failure rate. They are relatively difficult to spot them,
and tend to work well in bearish markets.
Trade:
The "wedge"
patterns are defined by trend. lines connecting the "higher-highs"
and "lowerlows." A trend line breakout suggests a "long"
trade. Trades are entered after a clear breakout from the trend line. Enter a
"long" trade, one tick above the high of the breakout bar from the trend
line.
Target:
Place a target at the higher
"swing high" level of the "wedge" pattern. A secondary
target is set at the depth of the wedge pattern from the breakout level.
Stop:
Place
a "stop" order below the lowest level of the "wedge"
pattern.
1. A "long" trade
was entered above the breakout bars high.
2. A "stop" order
was placed below the low of the "wedge" at the 107.5 level.
3.
A target is set at the depth of the "wedge" pattern from the trade
entry.
Targets: The
length of the flagpole can be applied to the resistance break or support break
of the flag/pennant to estimate the advance or decline.
Looking at the chart OIL 4hr chart is
trading below the critical resistance of 108.8 and is expected to give a sharp
continuation of uptrend from current level. If the resistance of 108.8 is
holding and sustain trading is seen below 107 will continue in negative trend
where on lower side it will move and test the lower level where it can test the
level of 105 - 102 support level.
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