Saturday, November 3, 2012
EURUSD Forming a Bat Pattern Formation
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Trading Hour Schedule for US Public Holiday in May 28th 2012
Trading Hour Schedule for US Public Holiday in May 2012
Instrument Monday 28th May
FX regular hours
EQs & ETFs Closed
Index CFDs
Europe 50 02:00 - 11:30
France 40 02:00 - 11:30
Germany 30 02:00 - 11:30
UK FTS 100 02:00 - 11:30
US SP 500 02:00 - 11:30
US NASQ 100 02:00 - 11:30
US DJ 30 02:00 - 11:30
Commodity
Nat gas Closed
Gold 18:00 Sun - 13:00 Mon
Silver 18:00 Sun - 13:00 Mon
US Crude Closed
*All times in EDT
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Daily Forex and Commodity Report for 23rd May 2012
Sunday, May 20, 2012
India is on verge of collapse
From another blog
Here is prediction about Indian Economy by one of the leading Indian Astrologers based in USA. Though this astrologer has failed many a times but some of his predictions have gone remarkably accurate.
India is on verge of collapse
Dear Member’s
Since last eight months I have been concern about India. Today, again I decided to read detail Indian wave of nature/Astro cycle chart and too me they are giving most scary signal. In my recent book I clearly mentioned that India Market would underperform compare to world equity market. Investing in S&P and US stocks advised proven one of the best of 2012. Currently I am reading India’s Astro/Wave of nature cycles and prediction article will be ready within few days.
Its’ looks like Indian economy can fall before Greece or Spain. I issue a warning to those who are holding investment in India, in Indian real-estate market, equity market, bonds and Rupee. All these assets can tumble over night. It can create havoc in world financial market.
This is most scary story is developing in World Astro cycle, and India can take place center point and start taking world into big scary whole, I don’t know how world market will react to this so please give me few days before I complete my study and publish article in the next week’s weekly newsletter.
I warn Indian investors to stay away for all investments class like, equity, Rupee, real-estate and metals as these all assets may collapse. Big corporate, banks or business houses may fail, most scary scenario can emerge. I will be watching next 48 hours very closely before I put everything on paper and release it.
Last week on Wednesday we released alert recommending, staying away from all investments, like equity, oil and metals for the next five days. Tomorrow is fifth day and would like to see how next two days perform. Below here is alert.
Thanks & God Bless,
Mahendra Sharma
Things are not as bad as doomsdayers claim
Relax, things are not as bad as doomsdayers claim
Doomdayers are having a field day given our current market conditions. Calls range from the collapse of the eurozone to a fall in China’s economy. India is receiving its fair share of dark predictions ranging from runaway inflation expectations, a sharp rise in interest rates and below-par growth.
If the predictions actually come out right, three-fourths of the world’s population will be living in poverty for the next ten years. The small proportion of individuals that has managed to hoard wealth will be invested in US treasuries, which yield below 2 percent, and gold, which yields nothing.
India’s poor run will stop sooner than later and it will be despite the government. Reuters
But more likely than not, the doomsayers’ predictions will not come true and the world will get on with its life, albeit with a few hiccups. It is the market sentiment that is giving rise to gloom and doom predictions, and these predictions will disappear once markets get back to normal. One has to remember that the theme in the 2000-2008 period was the collapse of the US dollar, unfettered growth in BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations and an unstoppable rise in commodity prices.
None of these bull market predictions have come true: the US dollar is gaining, commodity prices are falling and growth in BRIC nations has come off leading to negative returns in BRIC equities over the past four years.
India is facing the worst market scenario since the 1990s. The Sensex and rupee are down over 15 percent from their peaks levels seen in late 2007, while ten-year benchmark bond yields are up by 350 basis points from their 2008 lows.
GDP growth has come off from over 9 percent to below 7 percent, while inflation has trended towards double digits from levels of below 6 percent over the past four years. India was once seen as a country that could do nothing wrong; now, it is seen as a country that can do nothing right.
Things will turn around for India
India’s poor run will stop sooner than later and it will be despite the government. Take, for example, the IT sector. Infosys and Cognizant have guided for slower growth this year, but the fact is that their hiring plans are still robust with each of them planning to up the workforce by over 20 percent. The other majors of TCS, Wipro and HCL Tech are also having robust hiring plans. Why would IT majors hire if the outlook for business in the US and Europe are not good?
The markets have punished policy makers enough for their follies. The fact that the government provided fiscal stimulus and the Reserve Bank of India provided monetary stimulus post the 2008 crisis, and their inability to roll back the stimulus quickly in the face of rising inflation is seen in the weak financial markets. The government and the RBI are now ultra-cautious in their approach to the growth-inflation trade off, and that makes for sounder policies that the ones that were made in the clamor for growth in the 2000s.
The situation is similar to other sectors in the economy. Banks, especially the private sector banks have focused their attention of improving asset quality and the earnings growth rates of 30 percent and above for the biggies, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank, shows the effort. Smaller private-sector banks such as ING Vysya have also delivered 30 percent or higher earnings growth.
Airlines are cutting costs and restructuring to become profitable. Consumer goods companies such as ITC and HUL are reaping the benefits of a ten-year competitiveness exercise and have shown earnings growth over 20 percent in the past year.
Doomsdayers, put your money where your mouth is
China has realised the folly of over-investment and directed lending after a property bubble and a stock market crash. China’s equity index is down 50 percent from its highs seen in 2007 and its growth has come off from double digit levels to 8 percent and thereabouts. China’s policies will now be attuned towards steady growth, driven less by exports and more by domestic consumption.
The US is still holding on to its status as the global powerhouse despite its issues on debt. Dollar bashers have had to hold their tongues as the dollar and dollar-denominated debt are still seen as safe haven assets.
Eurozone debt issues will persist, but will they lead to the collapse of the euro and the world? The questions each euro nation must ask itself is what will the consequence will be of leaving the euro? The consequence will be as bad as the ones faced by South American countries when their currencies were devalued, hyperinflation and economic collapse. Euro nations will strive to stay in the eurozone with help from Germany and the European Central Bank. Germany itself is seeing resurgence in its economy with unemployment at two-decade lows and consumer and business confidence holding strong in the face of many negatives.
Investors should also realise doomsdayers will never be short on markets even if they are predicting a market collapse. The reason is that they themselves do not believe their predictions. A true forecaster will put his money where his mouth is and doomsdayers are not true forecasters or risk takers. Hence, it is better to ignore doomsayers and look beyond the present.
Arjun Parthasarathy is editor of www.investorsareidiots.com, a web site for investors.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Trading Calls for the day with timing
Friday, May 4, 2012
Daily Report for 4th May 2012
EURUSD: Support 1.3060 – 1.3110 Pivot: 1.3144
Resistance: 1.3190 – 1.3230
Euro: The U.S. dollar remained broadly higher against its major counterparts on Thursday, as mixed U.S. economic reports and sustained concerns over the handling of the euro zone’s financial crisis weighed on demand for riskier assets. the bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1%, in a widely expected decision.. The pair was likely to test support at 1.3105, the low on April 23, and resistance at 1.3284, the high of May 1. Sustain trading below 1.3130 will indicate stop term top is placed and will bring to 1.3085 and 1.3050$ support level. Stochastic has drifted from overbought zone and is trading around 50% where turning towards oversold zone indicating short correction in the price to continue.
GBPUSD: Support 1.6130 – 1.6165 Pivot: 1.6190
Resistance: 1.6220 – 1.6250
Pound: The British Pound was higher against the U.S. Dollar on Friday. GBP/USD was trading at 1.6186, up 0.06% at time of writing. The pair was likely to find support at 1.6160, Thursday’s low, and resistance at 1.6302, Monday’s high.It is taking support at 1.6180 which is 10 DEMA and trading below the same on closing basis will open the door for 1.6110 to 1.6060 levels where 1.6240 will be resistance level. Stochastic has drifted from the overbought zone and has given negative intersection and trading below 50% moving towards lower zone where correction will continue till the time resistance of 1.6300 holds.
AUDUSD: Support 1.0200 – 1.0230 Pivot: 1.0275
Resistance: 1.0310 – 1.0350
The dollar strengthened against most major currencies on Thursday mainly due to weak manufacturing data out of Europe. AUD/USD tested the lower support level of 1.0240 and closing was just above the support level and crossover below the same will confirm the down trend to continue. Once the support is crossed on lower side target of 1.0100 to 1.0020 will be the immediate support level to be tested. Lower side 1.0020 is a strong support and after consolidation over there where some profit booking may be seen. We are looking at the bear flag pattern breakdown where the difference of the Pole is 600 points and expected breakdown target will be 0.9600 to 0.9550 levels. Stochastic are trading just below 30% zone with negative intersection and is moving towards over sold zone where some downside move is expected.
Gold: Support: 1618 – 1627 Pivot: 1640
Resistance: 1650 – 1663
Gold futures added to losses during early U.S. morning trade on Thursday, after official data showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell by the most since May 2011. Gold traded at a low of USD1,630 after opening was seen below the level of 1650 a troy ounce during the session. After breaching the support of 1645 confirmation of the down side was seen and today support is seen at yesterday low of 1630$ and sustain trading below the same will bring to 1622$ and 1615$ in near term. Stochastic are trading below 50% area and is moving towards oversold zone where further selling in price may be expected to continue.
Silver: Support: 29.44 – 29.8 Pivot: 30.23
Resistance: 30.6 – 31.05
Silver which reverted from the level of 31.42 where resistance was respected at 31.5$ and is trading near the support of 30$ and sustain trading below 30$ will confirm the down trend where will continue in pattern breakdown moving to test 25A$ level. Sustain trading below 29.8$ yesterday low will continue for 29.2 – 28.8$ immediately where further 27.5$ and 25$ will be the medium term target. As it’s a rule after the breakdown short recovery was expected and this rise can be the selling opportunity where selling is seen from 31.2 – 31.5 range. From current level we will continue the bearish view if trading is seen below 29.8$ where before breaking the same short bounce till 30.25 will be the fresh sell opportunity. Stochastic are trading in just above oversold zoen where trading below 29.8$ will continue downtrend
Crude: Support: 100.5 – 101.5 Pivot: 103.45
Resistance: 104.5 – 106.4
Crude: Crude oil futures came under heavy selling pressure during U.S. morning trade on Thursday, after European Central Bank president Mario Draghi refrained from pledging more liquidity-boosting measures and said the economic outlook in the region was subject to “downside risks”. There are worries that the region’s sovereign debt crisis could trigger a broader economic slowdown that would curb demand for oil. Crossover below 102.2$ will brings to 101.5 – 100.5$ levels and may go further down, where as failing to cross the same and trading above 104 will retest 107$ level. Stochastic are trading below 80% zone and is negative expecting down side move to continue.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
EUR & POUND Short Term Report
Above Chart shows a good example of a head-and-shoulders top. The three bumps are clearly visible, with the center bump being the highest of the three. The left shoulder usually appears after an extended uphill run. The entire formation seems to stand alone when viewed in the context of a year’s worth of daily price data. This stand-alone characteristic makes the head-and-shoulders top easily identified in a price series. A head-and-shoulders top formation where the center peak towers above the other two. A pullback to the neckline occurs frequently. A trend line drawn along the bottoms of the two troughs between the three peaks forms the neckline. The line may slope in any direction but slopes upward about 52% of the time and downward 45% of the time with the remainder being horizontal. The direction of neckline slope is a predictor of the severity of the price decline.
EURUSD: Technically Euro has rose from the level of 1.2620 level and has rose to the level of 1.3120 and short correction of the rise testing the level of 1.2975 forming the Left Shoulder. There after the rise from the level of 1.2975 tested the fresh high of 1.3485 was the top of the Head and again tested the lower support @ 1.3000 levels where the neck line was seen and also the double bottom was formed. Short bounce was seen from the double bottom level testing the level of 1.3285 which was the resistance of Left shoulder & rise by 61.8% of the fall where reversal in price is expected from here. On lower side support is seen at 1.3000 to 1.3030 level where the Neck Line is coming and sustain trading below the same will bring to the lower level of 1.2700 to 1.2660 level in near to medium term.
GBPUSD: Technically Pound has rose from the level of 1.5235 level and has rose to the level of 1.5925 and short correction of the rise testing the level of 1.5640 forming the Left Shoulder. There after the rise from the level of 1.5640 tested the fresh high of 1.5990 was the top of the Head and again tested the lower support @ 1.5617 levels where the neck line was seen and also the double bottom was formed. Short bounce was seen from the double bottom level testing the level of 1.5920 which was the resistance of Left shoulder & rise by 76.4% of the fall where reversal in price is expected from here. On lower side support is seen at 1.5600 to 1.5640 level where the Neck Line is coming and sustain trading below the same will bring to the lower level of 1.5300 to 1.5250 level in near to medium term.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Friday, February 24, 2012
After Europe Now China is a cause of Worry
An exclusive preview of an economic report on China, prepared by the World Bank & government insiders is alarming:
China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep reforms, including scaling back its vast state-owned enterprises and making them operate more like commercial firms. "China 2030," a report set to be released Monday by the bank & a Chinese government think tank, addresses some of China's most politically sensitive economic issues, according to a half-dozen individuals involved in preparing and reviewing it.
It is designed to influence the next generation of Chinese leaders who take office starting this year, these people said. And it challenges the way China's economic model has developed during the past decade under President Hu Jintao, when the role of the state in the world's 2nd largest economy has steadily expanded.
The report warns that China's growth is in danger of decelerating rapidly & without much warning. That is what has occurred with other highflying developing countries, such as Brazil and Mexico, once they reached a certain income level, a phenomenon that economists call the "middle-income trap." A sharp slowdown could deepen problems in the Chinese banking & elsewhere, the report warns, and could prompt a crisis, according to those involved with the project. It recommends that state-owned firms be overseen by asset-management firms, say those involved in the report. It also urges China to overhaul local government finances and promote competition and entrepreneurship. The Chinese government must decide "whether it wants state-led capitalism dominated by giant state-owned corporations or free-market entrepreneurship."
Current forecasts by the Conference Board, a U.S. think tank, see the Chinese economy growing 8% in 2012 & slowing to an average annual growth rate of 6.6% from 2013 to 2016. Economists argue that China's annual growth rate will begin to "downshift" by at least 2% points starting around 2015. While some reduction in growth is inevitable—China has been growing at an average of 10% a year for 30 years—the rate of decline matters greatly to the world economy. With Europe & Japan fighting recession and the U.S. experiencing a weak recovery, China has become the most reliable source of growth globally. Commodity producers count on China for growth, as do capital goods makers, farmers and fashion brands in the U.S. and Europe.
How much the report will help reshape the Chinese economy is unclear. Even ahead of its release, it has generated fierce resistance from bureaucrats who manage state enterprises, according to several individuals involved in the discussions. China's political heir apparent, Xi Jinping, now vice president, has given few clues about his economic policies. Analysts expect the high-profile report will encourage Mr. Xi and his allies to discuss making changes to a state-led economic model that has alarmed Chinese private entrepreneurs while creating tension between China and its main trading partners, including the U.S.
Currently, state-managed enterprises tower over the Chinese economy, dominating the nation's energy, natural resources, telecommunications and infrastructure industries. Among other things, they have easy access to low-interest loans from state-owned banks.
China needs to restrict the roles of the state-owned enterprises, break up monopolies, diversify ownership and lower entry barriers to private firms. Currently, many state-owned firms have real-estate subsidiaries, which tend to bid up prices for land, and have helped to create a housing bubble that the Chinese government is trying to deflate. The report also recommends a sharp increase in the dividends that state companies pay to their owner—the government. That would boost government revenue and pay for new social programs, said those involved with the report. Chinese and U.S. economists say that dividend money from profitable state-owned firms now is often directed to unprofitable ones by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, or SASAC, which regulates the firms and tries to ensure their profitability.
China is vulnerable to a sharp slowdown, said Jun Ma, a Deutsche Bank China economist, because it relies too heavily on industries that copy foreign technology and doesn't produce enough breakthroughs of its own. South Korea was able to keep growing rapidly after it hit a per-capita income level of $5,000—about where China is today—because it pushed innovation. However, China lags behind South Korea badly in patents produced per capita, he said.
Chinese local governments often draw much of their revenue from the sale of land, rather than from taxes. The report urges that Chinese social spending be funded more by dividends from state-owned firms and by property, corporate and other taxes.
China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep reforms, including scaling back its vast state-owned enterprises and making them operate more like commercial firms. "China 2030," a report set to be released Monday by the bank & a Chinese government think tank, addresses some of China's most politically sensitive economic issues, according to a half-dozen individuals involved in preparing and reviewing it.
It is designed to influence the next generation of Chinese leaders who take office starting this year, these people said. And it challenges the way China's economic model has developed during the past decade under President Hu Jintao, when the role of the state in the world's 2nd largest economy has steadily expanded.
The report warns that China's growth is in danger of decelerating rapidly & without much warning. That is what has occurred with other highflying developing countries, such as Brazil and Mexico, once they reached a certain income level, a phenomenon that economists call the "middle-income trap." A sharp slowdown could deepen problems in the Chinese banking & elsewhere, the report warns, and could prompt a crisis, according to those involved with the project. It recommends that state-owned firms be overseen by asset-management firms, say those involved in the report. It also urges China to overhaul local government finances and promote competition and entrepreneurship. The Chinese government must decide "whether it wants state-led capitalism dominated by giant state-owned corporations or free-market entrepreneurship."
Current forecasts by the Conference Board, a U.S. think tank, see the Chinese economy growing 8% in 2012 & slowing to an average annual growth rate of 6.6% from 2013 to 2016. Economists argue that China's annual growth rate will begin to "downshift" by at least 2% points starting around 2015. While some reduction in growth is inevitable—China has been growing at an average of 10% a year for 30 years—the rate of decline matters greatly to the world economy. With Europe & Japan fighting recession and the U.S. experiencing a weak recovery, China has become the most reliable source of growth globally. Commodity producers count on China for growth, as do capital goods makers, farmers and fashion brands in the U.S. and Europe.
How much the report will help reshape the Chinese economy is unclear. Even ahead of its release, it has generated fierce resistance from bureaucrats who manage state enterprises, according to several individuals involved in the discussions. China's political heir apparent, Xi Jinping, now vice president, has given few clues about his economic policies. Analysts expect the high-profile report will encourage Mr. Xi and his allies to discuss making changes to a state-led economic model that has alarmed Chinese private entrepreneurs while creating tension between China and its main trading partners, including the U.S.
Currently, state-managed enterprises tower over the Chinese economy, dominating the nation's energy, natural resources, telecommunications and infrastructure industries. Among other things, they have easy access to low-interest loans from state-owned banks.
China needs to restrict the roles of the state-owned enterprises, break up monopolies, diversify ownership and lower entry barriers to private firms. Currently, many state-owned firms have real-estate subsidiaries, which tend to bid up prices for land, and have helped to create a housing bubble that the Chinese government is trying to deflate. The report also recommends a sharp increase in the dividends that state companies pay to their owner—the government. That would boost government revenue and pay for new social programs, said those involved with the report. Chinese and U.S. economists say that dividend money from profitable state-owned firms now is often directed to unprofitable ones by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, or SASAC, which regulates the firms and tries to ensure their profitability.
China is vulnerable to a sharp slowdown, said Jun Ma, a Deutsche Bank China economist, because it relies too heavily on industries that copy foreign technology and doesn't produce enough breakthroughs of its own. South Korea was able to keep growing rapidly after it hit a per-capita income level of $5,000—about where China is today—because it pushed innovation. However, China lags behind South Korea badly in patents produced per capita, he said.
Chinese local governments often draw much of their revenue from the sale of land, rather than from taxes. The report urges that Chinese social spending be funded more by dividends from state-owned firms and by property, corporate and other taxes.
Friday, February 10, 2012
Nifty Yearly Report 2012
India Nifty: Nifty if we look from the past trend the formation has been repeating and the move was according to the past move. Looking the fall from the point a of 6240 to point b at 5725 the retracement of a-b has seen by 76.4% testing 6206 level where point c was seen. There after the fall was seen, this was 161.8% expansion of a-b from point c testing point d at 5173 level. After testing the level of 5173 reversal in price was seen and point e was seen at 5968 which as 76.4% retracement of d-e similar formation of previous fall a-b and rise to point c. after completing the retracement of 76.4% at point e selling was confirm and tested the lower level point f at 5182 which was previous bottom point d, just forming the double bottom formation confirm the short reversal. After reverting from point f the rise was similar to previous one which retraced by 76.4% of e – f where point g at 5750 was confirmed to get top out and reversal in the price was seen. Looking at the past performance the market has retraced by 161.8% expansion after the retracement by 74.6%, which states that 161.8% expansion of e-f from point g which need to test the level of 4536 where point h has been seen. But some consolidation was seen before testing the target where 4700 was the support taken twice reverted from the support level but was not sharp enough and after testing the level of 4536 point h which confirm the expected move reversal in price was seen and has moved shapely where the retirement as seen by 76.4% of g-h where the expected move is seem to get exhaust from where the reversal can be expected. Today we have seen the market has tested the level of 5450 level which is exactly coming to 76.4% retracement of g-h and is confirming the point i at 5448 and reversal in price can be expected from here.
As we have been looking the fall which is seen by 161.8% in the past, and on the same basis if we calculated the further move with expansion of g – h from i which bring the lower target of 3500 level in medium term. On the fall to reach the lower target there will be short pull back at various support levels with profit booking on the way to test the target. Further on the long term chart dating from 2004 bottom 1240 and 2009 bottom at 2500, taking the trend line which is also showing market need to give a correction and the level again comes at 3500 which is 161.8% expansion of the last formation and the time frame is getting decided where the bottom is expected by December 2012 or max by February 2013. Following in the long term chart explaining the bottom to situation and the long term positional buying opportunity at lower level where nifty may again test the all time high at 6340 and crossover above will bring NIFTY in FIVE DIGIT in following years.
Nifty looking at the long term chart from 2004 onwards with the level of 1260 has given a sharp rise and with the corrective move has tested the level of 6340, there after the crash of 2008 it made a bottom of 2525 level at point c and sharp reversal was seen but failed to cross the high which it posted at 2008 and point d was seen again at 6340 level and again reversal was seen in after taking short support of 4500 bounce was seen. Looking at the lower rising trend line its expected that market will test 3500 level covering the gap which is formed during the rise and also the previous corrective 161.8% expansion confirming the lower target to be achieved by the year end around.
Positional buying is advice at the level of 3500 around plus or minus 200 points where I am looking nifty to cross the double top of 6340 and move and trade in Five Digit in next Four to Five years.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
GOLD LIKELY TO SEE A CORRECTION
Considered one of the safest assets,gold will probably become even more appealing to investors this year as its price is likely to come down
Shobhana Chadha
The glitter of the yellow metal could probably continue to lure investors this year too,especially those who are wary of the choppy equity markets.Last year,gold provided a splendid return of 31.1%.However,investors shouldnt be overjoyed seeing the performance of the commodity since its not a true reflection of its worth.In fact,the metal is basking in glory because the rupee is weakening against the dollar.According to data gathered from Bloomberg,the metal delivered returns of only 10.52% last year in dollar terms.
The inflated returns of Indian investors were due to the falling rupee.This is why experts are warning investors not to go overboard with gold.Many believe that the prices of the noble metal are poised for a significant correction.The magnetic appeal of gold remains weak in the near term.
Several factors are at play that can influence gold prices in the coming months.Heres a look at some of them.
A strong dollar
The greenback is regaining its safe haven appeal due to the ongoing economic uncertainty in the Eurozone,and this is likely to have a negative impact on the demand for gold.With caution over European economic status,investors will prefer holding dollar-denominated cash rather than any other financial asset, says.Investors are increasingly losing faith in the future prospects of the euro.According to Bloomberg,the Dollar Index,a measure of the dollar against six major currencies,has surged 6.05% since 28 October 2011.Considering the gravity of the global economic scenario,experts believe that the index will continue to go up.On the other hand,the yellow metal has witnessed a change in course.As investors are moving away from gold,the dollar prices have already fallen by about 16% since the record high of $ 1,900 per ounce on 5 September 2011.The magnitude of the decrease indicates that the asset class is already on the brink of a bear phase.Gold prices may see a consolidation or correction in the first half of 2012.
A slump in real demand
The demand for physical gold is cooling off.According to the third quarter report of the World Gold Council (WGC),global demand for gold jewellery slumped by 10% in the quarter as compared to the previous year.India,which is the worlds largest market for gold jewellery and gold bars and coins,witnessed a corresponding decline of 26% and 18% in tonnage demand in the two segments as compared to last year.Experts are attributing the dampening consumer enthusiasm to heightened volatility in gold price.Real demand is reducing because of the high price of the metal.I hold a very negative view regarding the performance of gold in 2012, says Sandip Sabharwal,CEO,PMS,Prabhudas Lilladher.
Affirms Arindam Ghosh,CEO,Mirae Asset Global Investments: The actual demand for the metal cannot justify its price level. According to him,gold is not a productive asset class,which is why the fund house has not launched a gold fund despite the euphoria over it.
Demand driven by investment
Gold prices are in a bubble.The asset class is dangerously inflated due to speculative positioning, says Ghosh.The WGC report shows that while the overall demand for gold rose by 6% in the third quarter as compared to the previous year,the increase was primarily fuelled by the investment demand.The demand for gold exchange traded funds and similar products rose by 58%.The surge in the price of any commodity cannot be driven by investment and speculative demand alone, says Sabharwal.
Despite this increase,a sharp recovery in gold prices in the fourth quarter was restricted due to poor investor sentiments.In fact,it seems that globally,the investment and speculative demand is beginning to wobble as gold is increasingly being seen as overbought.Many experts are developing a firm view that the rally in the metal will consolidate,if not correct.
A recent report by Bloomberg stated that many hedge fund managers have sold gold in 2011 and speculators in the New York futures have not been bullish on the commodity in the past 31 months.Investor George Soros,who made $1 billion in one day in the currency market,had cut 99% of his holdings in the first quarter of 2011.All these factors will adversely impact the investment demand to a large extent as even this channel was largely driven by the long-term,safe-haven appeal of gold,which has deteriorated in the past few months.
Magnitude of correction
Experts have their own grades of pessimism.I expect gold prices to fall by 20-25 % by the end of the year, says Sabharwal.Ghosh expects an even more severe correction and believes that it is long overdue.The price level of the commodity should come back to the mean price level of the past five-six years, says Ghosh.This would result in a correction of 33-38 % from the current levels.
On the other hand,i have a more moderate estimate.He sees a correction of up to 11% in gold prices in the first six months of 2012 as the prices may touch 25,000 per 10 gm.Thereafter,he expects the prices to rally by about 14-19 % in the remaining half of the year with target price levels of 28,500-29,800 in the domestic market.If the rally continues,the commodity could test the level of 31,800 per 10 gm in the later part of the year
However,he does not rule out the possibility of a drastic correction like the one witnessed by oil prices in 2008.The prices fell from around $150 to about $30 in just six months.If the pressure on gold prices continues,there is a likelihood of global hedge funds and speculators going short on the commodity and prices seeing a massive plunge.However,we hope that some solution will emerge for the European crisis which should help stabilise sentiments by the second half of the year.Currently,gold is performing more like a risky asset than a safe haven.
Should you book profits
If you intend to hold only for three six months,then yes,book profits.But if you plan to stay invested for three-five years,there is no need to worry as the long-term fundamentals of gold remain unchanged.Though gold serves as a hedge against inflation,it should only be used as a diversifying element in the portfolio.Dont rely strictly on current trends.Assets under management data of the past few months shows that investors are allocating larger amounts to gold.This is not an ideal move as it is not the time to enter gold in a big way, says Sabharwal.Those considering gold with a longer time frame in mind should enter the gold market in a staggered manner.A lump-sum investment can be made at around 25,000 levels.
Shobhana Chadha
The glitter of the yellow metal could probably continue to lure investors this year too,especially those who are wary of the choppy equity markets.Last year,gold provided a splendid return of 31.1%.However,investors shouldnt be overjoyed seeing the performance of the commodity since its not a true reflection of its worth.In fact,the metal is basking in glory because the rupee is weakening against the dollar.According to data gathered from Bloomberg,the metal delivered returns of only 10.52% last year in dollar terms.
The inflated returns of Indian investors were due to the falling rupee.This is why experts are warning investors not to go overboard with gold.Many believe that the prices of the noble metal are poised for a significant correction.The magnetic appeal of gold remains weak in the near term.
Several factors are at play that can influence gold prices in the coming months.Heres a look at some of them.
A strong dollar
The greenback is regaining its safe haven appeal due to the ongoing economic uncertainty in the Eurozone,and this is likely to have a negative impact on the demand for gold.With caution over European economic status,investors will prefer holding dollar-denominated cash rather than any other financial asset, says.Investors are increasingly losing faith in the future prospects of the euro.According to Bloomberg,the Dollar Index,a measure of the dollar against six major currencies,has surged 6.05% since 28 October 2011.Considering the gravity of the global economic scenario,experts believe that the index will continue to go up.On the other hand,the yellow metal has witnessed a change in course.As investors are moving away from gold,the dollar prices have already fallen by about 16% since the record high of $ 1,900 per ounce on 5 September 2011.The magnitude of the decrease indicates that the asset class is already on the brink of a bear phase.Gold prices may see a consolidation or correction in the first half of 2012.
A slump in real demand
The demand for physical gold is cooling off.According to the third quarter report of the World Gold Council (WGC),global demand for gold jewellery slumped by 10% in the quarter as compared to the previous year.India,which is the worlds largest market for gold jewellery and gold bars and coins,witnessed a corresponding decline of 26% and 18% in tonnage demand in the two segments as compared to last year.Experts are attributing the dampening consumer enthusiasm to heightened volatility in gold price.Real demand is reducing because of the high price of the metal.I hold a very negative view regarding the performance of gold in 2012, says Sandip Sabharwal,CEO,PMS,Prabhudas Lilladher.
Affirms Arindam Ghosh,CEO,Mirae Asset Global Investments: The actual demand for the metal cannot justify its price level. According to him,gold is not a productive asset class,which is why the fund house has not launched a gold fund despite the euphoria over it.
Demand driven by investment
Gold prices are in a bubble.The asset class is dangerously inflated due to speculative positioning, says Ghosh.The WGC report shows that while the overall demand for gold rose by 6% in the third quarter as compared to the previous year,the increase was primarily fuelled by the investment demand.The demand for gold exchange traded funds and similar products rose by 58%.The surge in the price of any commodity cannot be driven by investment and speculative demand alone, says Sabharwal.
Despite this increase,a sharp recovery in gold prices in the fourth quarter was restricted due to poor investor sentiments.In fact,it seems that globally,the investment and speculative demand is beginning to wobble as gold is increasingly being seen as overbought.Many experts are developing a firm view that the rally in the metal will consolidate,if not correct.
A recent report by Bloomberg stated that many hedge fund managers have sold gold in 2011 and speculators in the New York futures have not been bullish on the commodity in the past 31 months.Investor George Soros,who made $1 billion in one day in the currency market,had cut 99% of his holdings in the first quarter of 2011.All these factors will adversely impact the investment demand to a large extent as even this channel was largely driven by the long-term,safe-haven appeal of gold,which has deteriorated in the past few months.
Magnitude of correction
Experts have their own grades of pessimism.I expect gold prices to fall by 20-25 % by the end of the year, says Sabharwal.Ghosh expects an even more severe correction and believes that it is long overdue.The price level of the commodity should come back to the mean price level of the past five-six years, says Ghosh.This would result in a correction of 33-38 % from the current levels.
On the other hand,i have a more moderate estimate.He sees a correction of up to 11% in gold prices in the first six months of 2012 as the prices may touch 25,000 per 10 gm.Thereafter,he expects the prices to rally by about 14-19 % in the remaining half of the year with target price levels of 28,500-29,800 in the domestic market.If the rally continues,the commodity could test the level of 31,800 per 10 gm in the later part of the year
However,he does not rule out the possibility of a drastic correction like the one witnessed by oil prices in 2008.The prices fell from around $150 to about $30 in just six months.If the pressure on gold prices continues,there is a likelihood of global hedge funds and speculators going short on the commodity and prices seeing a massive plunge.However,we hope that some solution will emerge for the European crisis which should help stabilise sentiments by the second half of the year.Currently,gold is performing more like a risky asset than a safe haven.
Should you book profits
If you intend to hold only for three six months,then yes,book profits.But if you plan to stay invested for three-five years,there is no need to worry as the long-term fundamentals of gold remain unchanged.Though gold serves as a hedge against inflation,it should only be used as a diversifying element in the portfolio.Dont rely strictly on current trends.Assets under management data of the past few months shows that investors are allocating larger amounts to gold.This is not an ideal move as it is not the time to enter gold in a big way, says Sabharwal.Those considering gold with a longer time frame in mind should enter the gold market in a staggered manner.A lump-sum investment can be made at around 25,000 levels.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Ten questions about the European crisis Commentary: Two years in, the crisis still makes no sense
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — I must be very stupid.
I have been watching this European financial crisis for two years now. And it still doesn’t make any sense to me whatsoever.
When it started out, I figured that it would soon become clear. But it hasn’t. It’s getting worse.
Am I alone? Am I the only person baffled? Does everyone else understand this?
Here are my questions.
Reuters
A commercial street in Athens. Greece has repeatedly flirted with bankruptcy in recent months.
1.Why would anyone lend their money to Greece for 30 years at 3.5% interest? That’s the rate being insisted on by the Greek government in the current negotiations with its bondholders. But that’s less than the rate Australia and New Zealand — countries with some of the strongest finances in the world — pay for 10 year money. Would Greek prime minister, Lucas Papademos, lend his money on these terms? If so, will he agree to do so as part of the negotiations? And if not, why should anyone else?
2.If Greece gets to pay 3.5% interest on its debts, as a reward for defaulting, why would the Irish continue to pay 7.2% for not defaulting? Why would the Spanish pay 5.7% and the Italians 6.5%? Why won’t they look at this deal and say, “We’d like the same thing”?
Click to Play
Should you bet against the Davos consensus?
The yearly meeting of journalists and economists at Davos might come up with common themes, but should one bet against the Davos consensus? Michael Casey discusses on Markets Hub. (Photo: VINCENZO PINTO/AFP/Getty Images)
3.Why on Earth did the European Union leaders try to make a big stand over Greece in the first place? It was always a lost cause. And it is a tiny country anyway. Its economy accounts for less than 2% of European Union’s gross domestic product, and its debts for less than 3%. Why didn’t they draw the line around somewhere more defensible, like Ireland?
4.Am I mistaken, or couldn’t we have reached this point two years ago? It seems that we have spent the last two years hearing about the European Union’s attempts to prevent Greece from defaulting. Unless my eyes deceive me, this looks like Greece defaulting.
5.How exactly is the imposition of new austerity rules on depressed countries like Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal going to help them recover? You don’t have to be a raging Keynesian to think that bringing in “tough new budget rules” at this moment is like throwing an anvil, instead of a life preserver, to a drowning man.
6.Owners of Greek debt are being told that unless they accept haircut on their loans as part of a “voluntary” agreement, they will have a deeper haircut imposed upon them by fiat. Could someone in the European Union please explain the use of the word “voluntary” here, and how it differs from the word “blackmail”?
7.Why don’t the Greeks just leave the European Union and relaunch the drachma? They could devalue, regain their autonomy, and restore growth. Great Britain boomed after it left the European currency union in 1992. And being outside Europe hasn’t hurt the Turks: Their economy and their stock market have done much better than the E.U. since their talks to join the union got bounced five years ago.
8.Why do we keep talking about “bailing out Greece” when we are really bailing out the French and German banks who lent them money? The Greeks have already had the money, and spent it. They aren’t really being bailed out at all — least of all if the “bail out” means making their lives even more miserable. Shouldn’t Angela Merkel and Nicholas Sarkozy be required to admit that we are talking about bailing out some of their constituents, and not the Greeks?
Click to Play
Art of the farewell workplace email
For better or worse, employees who quit or get fired or laid off are crafting their own farewell emails to colleagues. Sue Shellenbarger reports on Lunch Break. Photo: AP.
9.If you come right down to it, why are the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund even intervening in this at all? If some banks were foolish enough to lend to the central bank of Greece on the same terms they lent to Germany and Sweden, isn’t that their problem? And if Greece must renegotiate the terms of the debt, isn’t that really a private matter between the Greek government and the banks? Why shouldn’t Greece just be allowed to default and go through Chapter 11, the way American Airlines is doing? We would not expect the EU to intervene, say, to settle a contractual dispute between the Greek government and a company hired to collect the trash in Athens or run the airport. Certainly, international institutions can reasonably step in to settle markets in a panic, or to provide emergency liquidity, but that is a totally different matter from intervening in these contracts.
10.People who bought credit default swaps — insurance — on Greek debt did so in order to insure themselves against a Greek default. Counterparties sold them these CDS insurance contracts in order to earn a return on their money in exchange for taking a risk. Clearly Greece is going to default by any common sense definition. If the European authorities rig this process so that it is not a “technical” default, simply in order to avoid triggering payouts on these credit default swaps, how is that not an act of theft against the owner of those contracts, and in favor of the seller?
I’m sure the answers to these questions must be obvious. I look forward to hearing them.
I have been watching this European financial crisis for two years now. And it still doesn’t make any sense to me whatsoever.
When it started out, I figured that it would soon become clear. But it hasn’t. It’s getting worse.
Am I alone? Am I the only person baffled? Does everyone else understand this?
Here are my questions.
Reuters
A commercial street in Athens. Greece has repeatedly flirted with bankruptcy in recent months.
1.Why would anyone lend their money to Greece for 30 years at 3.5% interest? That’s the rate being insisted on by the Greek government in the current negotiations with its bondholders. But that’s less than the rate Australia and New Zealand — countries with some of the strongest finances in the world — pay for 10 year money. Would Greek prime minister, Lucas Papademos, lend his money on these terms? If so, will he agree to do so as part of the negotiations? And if not, why should anyone else?
2.If Greece gets to pay 3.5% interest on its debts, as a reward for defaulting, why would the Irish continue to pay 7.2% for not defaulting? Why would the Spanish pay 5.7% and the Italians 6.5%? Why won’t they look at this deal and say, “We’d like the same thing”?
Click to Play
Should you bet against the Davos consensus?
The yearly meeting of journalists and economists at Davos might come up with common themes, but should one bet against the Davos consensus? Michael Casey discusses on Markets Hub. (Photo: VINCENZO PINTO/AFP/Getty Images)
3.Why on Earth did the European Union leaders try to make a big stand over Greece in the first place? It was always a lost cause. And it is a tiny country anyway. Its economy accounts for less than 2% of European Union’s gross domestic product, and its debts for less than 3%. Why didn’t they draw the line around somewhere more defensible, like Ireland?
4.Am I mistaken, or couldn’t we have reached this point two years ago? It seems that we have spent the last two years hearing about the European Union’s attempts to prevent Greece from defaulting. Unless my eyes deceive me, this looks like Greece defaulting.
5.How exactly is the imposition of new austerity rules on depressed countries like Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal going to help them recover? You don’t have to be a raging Keynesian to think that bringing in “tough new budget rules” at this moment is like throwing an anvil, instead of a life preserver, to a drowning man.
6.Owners of Greek debt are being told that unless they accept haircut on their loans as part of a “voluntary” agreement, they will have a deeper haircut imposed upon them by fiat. Could someone in the European Union please explain the use of the word “voluntary” here, and how it differs from the word “blackmail”?
7.Why don’t the Greeks just leave the European Union and relaunch the drachma? They could devalue, regain their autonomy, and restore growth. Great Britain boomed after it left the European currency union in 1992. And being outside Europe hasn’t hurt the Turks: Their economy and their stock market have done much better than the E.U. since their talks to join the union got bounced five years ago.
8.Why do we keep talking about “bailing out Greece” when we are really bailing out the French and German banks who lent them money? The Greeks have already had the money, and spent it. They aren’t really being bailed out at all — least of all if the “bail out” means making their lives even more miserable. Shouldn’t Angela Merkel and Nicholas Sarkozy be required to admit that we are talking about bailing out some of their constituents, and not the Greeks?
Click to Play
Art of the farewell workplace email
For better or worse, employees who quit or get fired or laid off are crafting their own farewell emails to colleagues. Sue Shellenbarger reports on Lunch Break. Photo: AP.
9.If you come right down to it, why are the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund even intervening in this at all? If some banks were foolish enough to lend to the central bank of Greece on the same terms they lent to Germany and Sweden, isn’t that their problem? And if Greece must renegotiate the terms of the debt, isn’t that really a private matter between the Greek government and the banks? Why shouldn’t Greece just be allowed to default and go through Chapter 11, the way American Airlines is doing? We would not expect the EU to intervene, say, to settle a contractual dispute between the Greek government and a company hired to collect the trash in Athens or run the airport. Certainly, international institutions can reasonably step in to settle markets in a panic, or to provide emergency liquidity, but that is a totally different matter from intervening in these contracts.
10.People who bought credit default swaps — insurance — on Greek debt did so in order to insure themselves against a Greek default. Counterparties sold them these CDS insurance contracts in order to earn a return on their money in exchange for taking a risk. Clearly Greece is going to default by any common sense definition. If the European authorities rig this process so that it is not a “technical” default, simply in order to avoid triggering payouts on these credit default swaps, how is that not an act of theft against the owner of those contracts, and in favor of the seller?
I’m sure the answers to these questions must be obvious. I look forward to hearing them.
Friday, January 27, 2012
GOLD Reserve the only solution for Greek Debt
Gold Reserve the only solution for the European market to get out of all the financial mess and the last resort for ending the financial crises.
France Italy and German stand in top five countries holder of gold in the reserve and this can be used for bring fund in the liquidity market and support the bank and on the bottom line money in circulation.
France (French National bank) is holding 2435 tones which is 66.2% reserve
Italy is holding 2451 tones which is 71.2% of the reserve and
German the largest economy in the Euro zone is holding 3400 tones which is 71.4% reserve
According to me if only 10 – 15% of the reserve is shed by this country which will bring good liquidity in the market ands flood the bank with liquid cash where the cycle of the flow will start.
In the European summit which is expected to be hold on 30th Jan 2012 I feel this point should also be the strong point to discuss..
France Italy and German stand in top five countries holder of gold in the reserve and this can be used for bring fund in the liquidity market and support the bank and on the bottom line money in circulation.
France (French National bank) is holding 2435 tones which is 66.2% reserve
Italy is holding 2451 tones which is 71.2% of the reserve and
German the largest economy in the Euro zone is holding 3400 tones which is 71.4% reserve
According to me if only 10 – 15% of the reserve is shed by this country which will bring good liquidity in the market ands flood the bank with liquid cash where the cycle of the flow will start.
In the European summit which is expected to be hold on 30th Jan 2012 I feel this point should also be the strong point to discuss..
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Indian Govt hike custom duty by 2% on GOld & 6% on Silver
Indian Govt hike custom duty by 2% on GOld & 6% on Silver
Friday, January 13, 2012
Rupee Over View 12 Dec. 11
Rupee tested the level of 51.5 as expected ?: reversal is expected from here and is expected to test 52.5 - 53 immediately,,, from Monday onward upside rally to resume.. may also test 54.5
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Nifty & Rupee Overview for 10th Jan 2011
Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the gap down opening failed to trade below previous day low and on higher side 4775 was tested where the closing was around the level of 4754 and flat trading was seen through out the day. Today as the Asian stock markets as Japan emerged from a Monday holiday to trade on better-than-expected U.S. jobs data that broke last Friday, and also Reports that European leaders remain united in keeping the currency zone intact also bolstered Asian equities markets. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4720 will open the door for 4680 to 4620 immediately, where as further 4200 can be expected in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4780 on closing basis. It’s not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4850 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a - b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic which has reverted from the overbought zone is just below 80% zone and is expected to give short correction in market.
USD/INR: Rupee last trading session closing was seen at 52.8 and on higher side 53.05 was the resistance taken and was trading negative as some buying pressure is seen at the level of 52.75 around. Today opening was seen down side around 53.75 per$ with the spike where some negative move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 52.2 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 53 per$ where till the time support of 52 per$ holds buying at dips is advise around 52.25 and above 52.6 per$ will further move to 53 in near term. In short term trading range bound to down move is expected where it will move slowly to test 52.2 per$ and on higher side resistance is seen at 53 per$. Stochastic which has given negative intersection near lower zone which indicates price will move side way to down side and lower target can be tested soon.
Friday, January 6, 2012
10 Largest Gold Reserves By Country
Gold definitely has caught the public’s attention; for proof, just look at the number of cash for gold ads. Gold has been rising since 2001 and its near vertical rise over the last two years helps explain some of the recent fascination, but political actions have helped as well. In the United States, Rep. Ron Paul and others have called for a return to the gold standard. Elsewhere, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez recently nationalized his country’s gold industries, and some analysts have said countries should dip into their gold reserves to alleviate the sovereign debt crisis. With all these recent stories, we wanted to see which countries actually have the most gold in their reserves, based on information from the World Gold Council. [Take a look at the list below.] Words: 565
So says Michael J. McFarlin (www.futuresmag.com) in excerpts from his original article* as further edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) where deemed appropriate to provide clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
McFarlin goes on to say:
Honorable Mention: Venezuela
Although Venezuela technically is number 13 on the list behind Taiwan [#11] and Portugal [#12], Venezuela President Hugo Chávez’s move to nationalize his country’s gold industry was the catalyst for this list. With gold and oil under his control, perhaps now he can possess that pinnacle of dictatorial decadence…
Tonnes: 322.9
% of reserves: 60.8%
#10: India
The world’s second most populous country barely made the top 10 list…[even though it] consumes more gold than any other…
Tonnes: 557.7
% of reserves: 8.7%
#9: Netherlands
Although known for being a fairly liberal society, the Netherlands is fairly conservative in its financial reserves…
Tonnes: 612.5
% of reserves: 58.9%
#8: Japan
Gold only constitutes a very small percentage of Japan’s overall reserves. Like another Asian country on this list, Japan holds a significant number of U.S. dollars in its reserves…
Tonnes: 765.2
% of reserves: 3.3%
#7: Russia
As the world’s number five gold producing nation, Russia’s gold reserves have grown significantly over the last couple years…
Tonnes: 836.7
% of reserves: 7.7%
#6: Switzerland
Beyond watches, chocolate and pocket knives, Switzerland is best known as a financial center…
Tonnes: 1,040.1
% of reserves: 17.8%
#5: China
[Although China is] the world’s most populous nation…[its] gold holdings are only 1.6% of its total reserves…[given the fact that] it has more than $3 trillion in U.S. dollars in its reserve.
Tonnes: 1,054.1
% of reserves: 1.6%
#4: France
The French National Bank, Banque De France, is home to the country’s gold holdings…
Tonnes: 2,435.4
% of reserves: 66.2%
#3: Italy
Italy is the only top 10 country to also make the prestigious “PIIGS” list of Eurozone countries with sovereign debt problems (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain), although Portugal just missed the list at number 12…
Tonnes: 2,451.8
% of reserves: 71.2%
#2: Germany
The largest economy in the Eurozone also has the largest reserve of gold…
Tonnes: 3,401.0
% of reserves: 71.4%
#1: United States
The United States holds nearly 30% of the 27,372.6 tonnes of gold in all sovereign reserves. Although Fort Knox is the iconic location of U.S. gold, more gold actually is stored in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s underground vault, although not all of it belongs to the U.S. government…
Tonnes: 8,133.5
% of reserves: 74.2%
So says Michael J. McFarlin (www.futuresmag.com) in excerpts from his original article* as further edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) where deemed appropriate to provide clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
McFarlin goes on to say:
Honorable Mention: Venezuela
Although Venezuela technically is number 13 on the list behind Taiwan [#11] and Portugal [#12], Venezuela President Hugo Chávez’s move to nationalize his country’s gold industry was the catalyst for this list. With gold and oil under his control, perhaps now he can possess that pinnacle of dictatorial decadence…
Tonnes: 322.9
% of reserves: 60.8%
#10: India
The world’s second most populous country barely made the top 10 list…[even though it] consumes more gold than any other…
Tonnes: 557.7
% of reserves: 8.7%
#9: Netherlands
Although known for being a fairly liberal society, the Netherlands is fairly conservative in its financial reserves…
Tonnes: 612.5
% of reserves: 58.9%
#8: Japan
Gold only constitutes a very small percentage of Japan’s overall reserves. Like another Asian country on this list, Japan holds a significant number of U.S. dollars in its reserves…
Tonnes: 765.2
% of reserves: 3.3%
#7: Russia
As the world’s number five gold producing nation, Russia’s gold reserves have grown significantly over the last couple years…
Tonnes: 836.7
% of reserves: 7.7%
#6: Switzerland
Beyond watches, chocolate and pocket knives, Switzerland is best known as a financial center…
Tonnes: 1,040.1
% of reserves: 17.8%
#5: China
[Although China is] the world’s most populous nation…[its] gold holdings are only 1.6% of its total reserves…[given the fact that] it has more than $3 trillion in U.S. dollars in its reserve.
Tonnes: 1,054.1
% of reserves: 1.6%
#4: France
The French National Bank, Banque De France, is home to the country’s gold holdings…
Tonnes: 2,435.4
% of reserves: 66.2%
#3: Italy
Italy is the only top 10 country to also make the prestigious “PIIGS” list of Eurozone countries with sovereign debt problems (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain), although Portugal just missed the list at number 12…
Tonnes: 2,451.8
% of reserves: 71.2%
#2: Germany
The largest economy in the Eurozone also has the largest reserve of gold…
Tonnes: 3,401.0
% of reserves: 71.4%
#1: United States
The United States holds nearly 30% of the 27,372.6 tonnes of gold in all sovereign reserves. Although Fort Knox is the iconic location of U.S. gold, more gold actually is stored in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s underground vault, although not all of it belongs to the U.S. government…
Tonnes: 8,133.5
% of reserves: 74.2%
Nifty short term out look 6th Jan 2012
Black Friday :: Wait for Blood Bath In Nifty Today ,,, just wait and watch tgt 4620 - 4560 can be tested today.. CMP is 4730 resitance 4765
Nifty will test 4200 this expiryy...
SBIN Sel @ 1667 stop @ 1680 tgt 1640 - 1610 wait for 3 - 4 days
LT sell @ 1072 tgt 1060 - 1040 - 1010 stop @ 1090 hold for few days,,
Reliance Sell @ 702 stop @ 708 tgt 685 - 670 - 650
rest will follow by same percentage..
Nifty will test 4200 this expiryy...
SBIN Sel @ 1667 stop @ 1680 tgt 1640 - 1610 wait for 3 - 4 days
LT sell @ 1072 tgt 1060 - 1040 - 1010 stop @ 1090 hold for few days,,
Reliance Sell @ 702 stop @ 708 tgt 685 - 670 - 650
rest will follow by same percentage..
Nifty & Rupee Overview for 6th Jan 2011
Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the positive opening at the level of 4761 tested the higher level of 4790 but failed to hold the higher level and in the later part of trading session it traded negative where the low was tested at 4738 and closing was seen negative at 4750 level similar to the previous trading session move. Today as the Asian market trading negative we expect flat opening in Nifty too, where on higher side 4800 is the immediate resistance level which is 40 DMA and if fails to trade above the same selling may continue from the higher level where as on lower side 4720 is the support and today’s trading range will be 4820 to 4660 level and selling is advise at higher level. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4750 will open the door for 4680 to 4620 immediately, where as further 4200 can be expected in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 4850 on closing basis. It’s not expected to cross the higher resistance of 4850 and till the time its holding the same selling at rise is advisable, where in medium term 4350 is the target which is 100% expansion of a - b from point c and can also test 3900 which comes to 161.8% in medium term. Stochastic are trading in the mid zone and if the resistance is holding selling may be seen at higher level.
USD/INR: Rupee last trading session closing was seen at 53.20 and on higher side 53.25 was the resistance taken and was trading negative as some buying pressure is seen at the level of 52 around. Today opening was seen flat around 53.2 per$ where some negative move is expected where on lower side support is seen at 53 per$ and on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 53.55 per$ where till the time support of 53 holds buying at dips is advise around 53.05 per$ and will test 53.25 and above 53.5 per$ will further move to 54 in near term. In short term trading range bound to upside move is expected where it will move slowly to test 54 again and 54.5 in medium terms and long term target of 58 cannot be denied where buying at dips is advice in medium term for positional traders. Stochastic which has given positive intersection near lower zone which indicates price will move side way to upside and higher target can be tested soon.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)