EURUSD One Pager Report Formation of Head & Shoulder Pattern Formation

Trading Call: EURUSD Sell CMP @ 1.3040 Stop Loss of 1.3250 closing basis Target of 1.2800 – 1.2200 – 1.1750 levels.

As its name implies, the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is made up of a left shoulder, a head, a right shoulder, and a neckline. Other parts playing a role in the pattern are volume, the breakout, price target and support turned resistance. We will look at each part individually, and then put them together with some examples.

As its name implies, the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is made up of a left shoulder, a head, a right shoulder, and a neckline. Other parts playing a role in the pattern are volume, the breakout, price target and support turned resistance. We will look at each part individually, and then put them together with some examples.

1. Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior uptrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior uptrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (or any reversal pattern for that matter).
2. Left Shoulder: While in an uptrend, the left shoulder forms a peak that marks the high point of the current trend. After making this peak, a decline ensues to complete the formation of the shoulder (1). The low of the decline usually remains above the trend line, keeping the uptrend intact.
3. Head: From the low of the left shoulder, an advance begins that exceeds the previous high and marks the top of the head. After peaking, the low of the subsequent decline marks the second point of the neckline (2). The low of the decline usually breaks the uptrend line, putting the uptrend in jeopardy.
4. Right Shoulder: The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline.
5. Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two low points, the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bearishness—a downward slope is more bearish than an upward slope. Sometimes more than one low point can be used to form the neckline.
6. Volume: As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. This decrease in volume and the new high of the head, together, serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder.
7. Neckline Break: The head and shoulders pattern is not complete and the uptrend is not reversed until neckline support is broken. Ideally, this should also occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion in volume.
8. Support Turned Resistance: Once support is broken, it is common for this same support level to turn into resistance. Sometimes, but certainly not always, the price will return to the support break, and offer a second chance to sell.
9. Price Target: After breaking neckline support, the projected price decline is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the top of the head. This distance is then subtracted from the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered as well. These factors might include previous support levels, Fibonacci retracements, or long-term moving averages.

EURO is showing Head & Shoulder Pattern formation and Neck Line is coming at 1.2750, sustain trading below 1.2750 will confirm the Pattern Formation where the height of the Head will be the expected target on lower side in this case will come to test 1.1750 level, this formation is only true till the time prices are sustaining below 1.3250 closing basis above which it becomes invalid pattern formation. 

Gold One Pager Report Expected tgt 1220 - 1160

Trading Call: XAU/USD Sell CMP @ 1464 Stop Loss of 1505 Target of 1320 – 1240 - 1160 levels.

Gold has retraced by 61.8% of the fall from the level of 1590 to 1321 and if the resistance of 1485 hold on closing basis reversal is expected from current level and will test immediate support of 1320$ and further trading below 1320 will bring to 1240 and 1160 on lower side.

We expect gold to fall by 161.8% of A-B from Point C which is the expected target of 1160$ on lower side.  On higher side till the time its below 76.4% retracement at 1525$ we expected this rise was just a pull back of the sharp selloff. Selling will continue from current level and further support of 1425$ and 1385$ can be seen immediately.

Market is in bearish trend and any level below 1200 – 1160 range will be the level to go long in market and it will enter in fifth wave in long term chart where some life time high level can be crossed in years to come. 

China Signals it will Back North Korea in War

http://www.fromthetrenchesworldreport.com/china-signals-it-will-back-north-korea-in-war/40302/

Finance Armageddon

7 April 2013 Breaking News China Signals it will Back North Korea in War end times news update 4-7-13

China won’t sell out North Korea, no matter how much it should, and that sends a message to the rest of the world.

Who would you rather have in your corner? Who is going to stand by you when times are tough? China or America?

Officially China may not be too happy about the way that North Korea is acting. Or maybe it is.

China isn’t too worried that Obama will actually drop his golf clubs and stand up to the Communist banker of his welfare state. It doesn’t want to appear too crazy in public, but it has moved to a more militarist stance and North Korean aggressiveness serves its interests by tying up the United States in Korea while allowing its leaders to be the ones who claim to have the choke hold on the Nuclear Hound of North Korea.

But if push does come to shove, then China has North Korea’s back. Unlike Obama Inc. which only has the Muslim Brotherhood’s back.

China continued moving tanks and armored vehicles and flying flights near North Korea this week as part of a military buildup in the northeastern part of the country that U.S. officials say is related to the crisis with North Korea.

The Obama administration, meanwhile, sought to play down the Chinese military buildup along the border with Beijing fraternal communist ally despite the growing danger of conflict following unprecedented threats by Pyongyang to attack the United States and South Korea with nuclear weapons. The buildup appears linked to North Korea’s March 30 announcement that it is in a state of war with South Korea after the United Nations imposed a new round of sanctions following the North’s Feb. 12 2013 nuclear test and because of ongoing large-scale joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troop and tank movements were reported in Daqing, located in northeastern Heilongjiang Province, and in the border city of Shenyang, in Liaoning Province.

Officials said one key military unit involved in the mobilization is the 190th Mechanized Infantry Brigade based in Benxi, Liaoning Province. The brigade is believed to be the PLA’s frontline combat unit that would respond to any regional conflict or refugee flows. Troops and tank movements also were reported in Dandong, in Liaoning Province. Fighter jets were reported flying in larger numbers in Fucheng, Hebei Province, and in Zhangwu and Changchun, Liaoning Provinces. Additionally, the troop buildup is a signal to Pyongyang that China will abide by its defense commitment to North Korea in the event of renewed conflict.

If the PRC really wanted to discourage North Korea’s misbehavior, then it would avoid the buildup. After all the only thing China really has to worry about is a flood of refugees and it doesn’t need jets or tanks to deal with them.

The message being sent is that China, unlike the United States, doesn’t abandon its allies.

Obama may have sold out Poland on missile defense and sold out the UK on the Falklands and Israel on Hamas. Obama sold out Mubarak and the leaders of most American allies in the Middle East.

March 31st 2013 Presstv reports – Russian president Putin orders unscheduled military drill in Black Sea Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered an unexpected military exercise involving dozens of ships and thousands of troops in the Black Sea.

Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday that Putin issued the order for the large-scale maneuvers overnight as he flew back from the South African city of Durban after a two-day summit of the BRICS group of emerging powers.

Peskov further said the drill is aimed at testing the battle-readiness of Russia’s Black Sea units. “These are large-scale unannounced test exercises. The main goal is to check the readiness and cohesion of the various units,” he said.

The ships taking part in the exercise have already left the Russia-leased Sevastopol port in Ukraine’s Crimea Peninsula, the Russian spokesman added.

According to a Kremlin statement, the drill will involve 36 vessels, up to 7,000 troops and an unspecified number of aircraft. However, the statement did not specify how long the exercise would last.

Russian foreign affairs analyst Fyodor Lukyanov, who is also the editor of Russia in Global Affairs journal, said, “It is flexing muscles and may have more to do with what is happening in the Mediterranean, around Syria, than in the Black Sea.”

In January, Russia launched its largest naval exercises in decades in the Mediterranean and Black Seas near the territorial waters of Syria.

Moscow said the drills were “held in line with the Russian Armed Forces’ 2013 combat training plan,” and focused on “interoperability of task forces from several fleets while on a mission in a far-off maritime zone.”

In addition to Georgia and Ukraine, Russia shares the Black Sea with Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania.

http://financearmageddon.blogspot.com/2013/04/breaking-news-china-signals-it-will.html

JUST A VIEW not to conclude till its totally confirm : (Rajeev)

GOLD_Positional_Bull_Flag_Pattern_Formation

Gold from the above chart is forming a Bull Flag Pattern Formation where it has rallied from the lower level of 680$ and tested the higher level of 1920 and on monthly closing basis was seen at 1825$. After the sharp rise from the lower level of 680 to 1825 Gold went in the consolidation phase where the consolidation was seen from August 2011 till now and is just near the lower support of 1500$ and if this support holds reversal is expected from current price and will move to test higher resistance level of 1790$ and crossover above 1790$ will give a Bull Flag pattern Breakout.

Calculating the Target from the Breakout which is also explained in the Chart where the market has rose from the lower level of 680 testing the higher level of 1825 making a Pole length of 1145$. Consolidation phase was seen between 1800$ to 1520$ which comes to 280 points. If we look at a reversal in price from here can test immediate resistance level of 1790$ and crossover above 1690 on weekly closing will further bring to higher target if 2935; which is the Difference of the Pole (1145) from the breakout point of 1790$.

1.        Sharp Move: To be considered a continuation pattern, there should be evidence of a prior trend. Flags and pennants require evidence of a sharp advance or decline on heavy volume. These moves usually occur on heavy volume and can contain gaps. This move usually represents the first leg of a significant advance or decline and the flag/pennant is merely a pause.

2.        Flagpole: The flagpole is the distance from the first resistance or support break to the high or low of the flag/pennant. The sharp advance (or decline) that forms the flagpole should break a trend line or resistance/support level. A line extending up from this break to the high of the flag/pennant forms the flagpole.

3.        Flag: A flag is a small rectangle pattern that slopes against the previous trend. If the previous move was up, then the flag would slope down. If the move was down, then the flag would slope up. Because flags are usually too short in duration to actually have reaction highs and lows, the price action just needs to be contained within two parallel trend lines.

4.        Break: For a bullish flag or pennant, a break above resistance signals that the previous advance has resumed. For a bearish flag or pennant, a break below support signals that the previous decline has resumed.

5.        Targets: The length of the flagpole can be applied to the resistance break or support break of the flag/pennant to estimate the advance or decline.

Positional Trading calls in Bullions

MCX BUY GOLD APRIL @ 29200 STOP @ 29000 TGT 29500 29800 30200 4/4/2013 11:20

MCX BUY SILVER JUNE @ 50800 STOP @ 50200 TGT 51500 52300 53000 4/4/2013 11:21