EURUSD Bear Flag Pattern Formation first support @ 1.2750 then 1.1800

Bear Flag is a sharp, strong volume decline, several days of sideways to higher price action on much weaker volume followed by a second, sharp decline to new lows on strong volume. 
The technical target for a bear flag pattern is derived by subtracting the height of the flag pole from the eventual breakout level at point (e). 
Even though flags and pennants are common formations, identification guidelines should not be taken lightly. It is important that flags and pennants are preceded by a sharp advance or decline. Without a sharp move, the reliability of the formation becomes questionable and trading could carry added risk. Look for volume confirmation on the initial move, consolidation and resumption to augment the robustness of pattern identification.

Bearish flags are comprised of higher tops and higher bottoms. "Bear" flags also have a tendency to slope against the trend. Their trendlines run parallel as well.

• Sharp Move: To be considered a continuation pattern, there should be evidence of a prior trend. Flags and pennants require evidence of a sharp advance or decline on heavy volume. These moves usually occur on heavy volume and can contain gaps. This move usually represents the first leg of a significant advance or decline and the flag/pennant is merely a pause.
• Flagpole: The flagpole is the distance from the first resistance or support break to the high or low of the flag/pennant. The sharp advance (or decline) that forms the flagpole should break a trend line or resistance/support level. A line extending up from this break to the high of the flag/pennant forms the flagpole.
• Flag: A flag is a small rectangle pattern that slopes against the previous trend. If the previous move was up, then the flag would slope down. If the move was down, then the flag would slope up. Because flags are usually too short in duration to actually have reaction highs and lows, the price action just needs to be contained within two parallel trend lines.
• Break: For a bullish flag or pennant, a break above resistance signals that the previous advance has resumed. For a bearish flag or pennant, a break below support signals that the previous decline has resumed.

Targets: The length of the flagpole can be applied to the resistance break or support break of the flag/pennant to estimate the advance or decline.

Looking at the chart EURUSD is trading below the critical resistance of 1.3425 and is expected to give a sharp continuation of down trend from current level. If the resistance of 1.5425 is holding and sustain trading is seen below 1.3200 will continue in negative trend where on lower side it will move and test the lower level where it can test the level of 1.2750 support level.  It will given breakdown at 1.2750 where point E is expected to test and sustain trading below 1.2750 will confirm the down side breakdown of the Bear Flag

Pattern Height of the Pole is 950 Pips (1.3700 – 1.2750). Immediately it is expected to test support at 1.2750 and Bear flag pattern breakdown is expected at same level. Sustain trading below 1.2750 will bring lower level target of 1.1800[(1.3700 – 1.2750)-1.2750] height of the Pole from the Breakdown point of 1.2750 level.

NIFTY positional view First 4500 then 2500 Bottom to test then 10100 - 11600

NIFTY positional view: First 4500 then 2500 Bottom to test  then Bull flag patter formation for target of 10100 and 11700 level CMP is 5340
NIfty base 1 starts from 900 and base 2 starts from 2500 where i am looking at Bull Flag Pattern with Base 1 and ecpected to test 2500 flag base. point D @ 2500 and then uptrend will continue. Where Breakout will be seen  6300 with target of 11700 in 10 years time by 2024 - 2025. Befor looking at higher target lower level are confirm with 2500 by  3nd or 4rd Quarter of 2014.

Rupee i am looking at 78 - 80 in near to medium term..

USDINR resistance @ 65.25 -* 65.35 short dip till 63.25 might be seen but trend is up for 70

USDINR is trading above 65 i am looking at  65.35 resistance on higher side,, days high it posted is 65.35.. short pull back might be seen and support of 63.25 - 63 might retest before reentering the higher lvl of 67 - 70 per $ in near term.

Alert : if sustain trading is seen above 65.35 closing on weekly basis might test 67 -  67.5 immidiately...

6th August report on Nifty targeting 4500 rock bottom support and 2500 if 4500 is crossed

Trading Call: Sell at the level of 5590 Target of 3800 – 3200 – 2500 levels.

Previous report sell call @ 5590 is expected to test target of 5350 – 5100 – 4850 level as 5750 is holding on closing basis.

Nifty if we look at the Pattern formation its getting strong reversal from 6200 level of closing basis and if sustain trading is seen below 5500 will test it straight to test the next rock bottom support level of 4500 where previous 2011 December  bottom was seen and reversal was seen in market. If on weekly closing below 4500 is sustain then might fall further where 3800 to 3200 is confirm and might also move to test the level of 2500 which was 2008 year end Bottom level of 2500. There is a high probability market will take a small support at 4500 and a short bounce might be seen but if the same is broken then 2500 is not where in medium term. 

My advise y people should be Stocking foodgrain and market corelation

RED ALERT :: Hello Friends stock the food which u can for the peroid of 2 years,, Rupee is expected to test 67 - 68 soon as my tgt of 63 is achived, now in worst case senerio if it moves above 68 might test 74 - 78 soon. this will bring civil unrest in economy,, if u look at price of ONION at at sky rocket, and this is just the begining ,, if petrol price rised which i expect soon to happen where my Crude oil report can look at my blog is to test 153$ from curent level of 110 $ might ride the inflation with rise in deasel and petrol prices,. cost of each item will rise and hope every one make a safe ground as soon as possible, advise to stock Pulses and grain as much as they can for safer side. , CIVIL Unrest means there will ba a JOB CUT and Closure of some mal industry.. we have seen Kingfisher going bankruptcy,,, this was just 1 company but i have a perception there are many who is going to get default soon and Banking sector which is one of the backboon of any country will be hit as one can look at the BANKNIFTY and Banking stocks one can get idea what will be the situation if i say Banknifty will test level below 4000 and can test 3300 where CMP is 9000 and i have been saying form 11000 lvl about the fall... what will be the case if the rates remain at the bottom for good amount of time where recovery will not be fast enough,, 

Botttom line : I am looking at CIVIL unrest if nifty cross 4500 rupee cross 68 and BAnk nifty crossing 7700... as said : this Ganpati and Diwali things might get clear,, PRAY for the best ,, do not want to look at the dark years like 1975 - 1977 ... 

Rupee alert Buying target 63 achived and next move will test 67

USDINR bu ycall @ 62.42 tgt 1 achi veed @ 62.55 tgt 2 @  62.7 tgt 3 @ 62.85 we wait for higer tgt

* USDINR MCX BUY @ 62.80 STOP @ 62.65 TGT 62.90 63.00 63.10 - 8/19/2013 16:01
previsou cal ltgt 3 almost down at 62.85 high at 62.8450

USDINR buy call @ 62.80 tgt 3 achived @ 63.1 CMP is 63.2 high at 63.28 : fresh call BTST with ::  *

USDINR MCX BUY @ 63.20 STOP @ 63.05 TGT 63.35 63.50 - 8/19/2013 16:47

Dollar Index Chanel Trading expected to test 85

Dollar Index CMP is 81 Expected to test 85

Channels

If we take this trend line theory one step further and draw a parallel line at the same angle of the uptrend or downtrend, we will have created a channel. No, we're not talking about ESPN, ABC, or Cartoon Network.

Still, this doesn't mean that you should walk away like it's a commercial break- channels can be just as exciting to watch as America's Next Top Model or Entourage!

Channels are just another tool in technical analysis which can be used to determine good places to buy or sell. Both the tops and bottoms of channels represent potential areas of support or resistance.

Types of channels

There are three types of channels:

1 : Ascending channel (higher highs and higher lows)

2 : Descending channel (lower highers and lower lows)

3 : Horizontal channel (ranging)

Important things to remember about trend lines:

• When constructing a channel, both trend lines must be parallel to each other.
• Generally, the bottom of channel is considered a buy zone while the top of channel is considered a sell zone.
• Like in drawing trend lines, DO NOT EVER force the price to the channels that you draw! A channel boundary that is sloping at one angle while the corresponding channel boundary is sloping at another is not correct and could lead to bad trades.

WTI CRUDE OIL Symmetical Triangle Pattern tgt 116 - 125 - 156 Level

Trading Call: Buy at the level of 105 Target of 116 – 125 - 156 levels.

A symmetrical triangle pattern is relatively easy to identify. In addition, triangle patterns can be quite reliable to trade with very low failure rates. There is a caution concerning trading these patterns, however. As mentioned previously, a triangle pattern can be either continuation or reversal patterns. Typically, they are continuation patterns. To achieve the reliability for which the triangle is well known, technical analysts advise waiting for a clear breakout of one of the trendlines defining the triangle.

1. Occurrence of a Breakout - Technical analysts pay close attention to how long the triangle takes to develop to its apex. The general rule, as explained by Murphy, is that prices should break out - clearly penetrate one of the trendlines - somewhere between three-quarters and two-thirds of the horizontal width of the formation.6 The break out, in other words, should occur well before the pattern reaches the apex of the triangle. . Adherence to this rule is strongly advised by Yager, She adds that the closer the breakout occurs to the apex the higher the risk of a false breakout.

2. Price Action - Unlike ascending and descending triangles which give advance notice of their intentions, the symmetrical triangle tends to be a neutral pattern. Murphy advises that the symmetrical triangle is generally a consolidation pattern. This means an investor can look to see the direction of the previous trend and make the basic assumption that the trend will continue. However, many experts advise investors that because the breakout direction could go either way that they wait until the breakout occurs before investing in or selling the stock. Schabacker refers to a symmetrical triangle as a "picture of hesitation.

3. Measuring the Triangle - To project the minimum short-term price objective of a triangle, an investor must wait until the price has broken through the trendline. When the price breaks through the trendline, the investor then knows whether the pattern is a consolidation or a reversal formation. To calculate the minimum price objective, calculate the "height" of the formation at its widest part - the "base" of the triangle. The height is equal determined by projecting a vertical line from the first point of contact with the trendline on the left of the chart to the next point of contact with the opposite trendline. In other words, measure from the highest high point on one trendline to the lowest low point on the opposite trendline.

Both these points will be located on the far left of the formation. Next, locate the "apex" of the triangle (the point where the trendlines converge). Take the result of the measurement of the height of the triangle and add it to the price marked by the apex of the triangle if an upside breakout occurs and subtract it from the apex price if the triangle experiences a downside breakout.

For example, working with a symmetrical triangle, assume the highest high of the pattern occurs at 100 and the lowest low at 80. The height of the pattern is 20 (100 - 80 = 20). The apex of the triangle occurs at 90. The pattern has an upside breakout. Using the measuring rule, the target price is 110 (90 + 20 = 110).

4. Duration of the Triangle - As mentioned before, the triangle is a relatively short-term pattern. It may take up to one month to form and it usually forms in less than three months.

5. Forecasting Implications - Once breakout occurs, the symmetrical triangle tends to be a reliable pattern. Bulkowski calculates failure rates ranging between 2% and 6% for symmetrical triangles after a valid breakout.

To avoid mistaking a false move for a valid breakout, experts advise waiting a few days to see if the breakout is dependable. According to Murphy, minimum penetration criteria would be a closing price outside the trendline and not just an intraday penetration. Investors do have time once a breakout has occurred.18 According to Bulkowski, when considering symmetrical triangles, an investor will have over five months to reach the ultimate high after an upside breakout and less than half that time after a downside breakout

Because premature breakouts (where prices close outside of the trendline) are so common, don't dismiss the pattern if it has experienced such a breakout. According to Bulkowski, however, "premature breakouts do not predict the final breakout direction or success or failure of the formation."

WTI Crude oil, working with a symmetrical triangle, the highest high of the pattern occurs at 115 $ and the lowest low at 64 $. The height of the pattern is 51 $ points (115 – 64 = 51). The apex of the triangle occurs at 105 $. The pattern has a upside breakout. Using the measuring rule, the target price is 156 $ (105 + 51 = 156 $).

With the above move it is also showing A-B-C Pattern Formation where it is expected to test 161% expansion of A-B from point C which comes to 56 levels. Point a is at 64 & Point b is at 115, point c at 75 has given retracement of 76.4% of the rise and confirming the upside side target. Taking 161.8 % Fibonacci Expansion of the A to B from the point C, comes to  higher level of 156 $ which can be seen in near term.

NIFTY Symmetical Triangle Pattern tgt 4840 CMP is 5600 Breakdown

Trading Call: Sell at the level of 5590 Stop Loss of 5750 Target of 5350 – 5100 - 4840 levels.

A symmetrical triangle pattern is relatively easy to identify. In addition, triangle patterns can be quite reliable to trade with very low failure rates. There is a caution concerning trading these patterns, however. As mentioned previously, a triangle pattern can be either continuation or reversal patterns. Typically, they are continuation patterns. To achieve the reliability for which the triangle is well known, technical analysts advise waiting for a clear breakout of one of the trendlines defining the triangle.

1. Occurrence of a Breakout - Technical analysts pay close attention to how long the triangle takes to develop to its apex. The general rule, as explained by Murphy, is that prices should break out - clearly penetrate one of the trendlines - somewhere between three-quarters and two-thirds of the horizontal width of the formation.6 The break out, in other words, should occur well before the pattern reaches the apex of the triangle. . Adherence to this rule is strongly advised by Yager, She adds that the closer the breakout occurs to the apex the higher the risk of a false breakout.

2. Price Action - Unlike ascending and descending triangles which give advance notice of their intentions, the symmetrical triangle tends to be a neutral pattern. Murphy advises that the symmetrical triangle is generally a consolidation pattern. This means an investor can look to see the direction of the previous trend and make the basic assumption that the trend will continue. However, many experts advise investors that because the breakout direction could go either way that they wait until the breakout occurs before investing in or selling the stock. Schabacker refers to a symmetrical triangle as a "picture of hesitation.

3. Measuring the Triangle - To project the minimum short-term price objective of a triangle, an investor must wait until the price has broken through the trendline. When the price breaks through the trendline, the investor then knows whether the pattern is a consolidation or a reversal formation. To calculate the minimum price objective, calculate the "height" of the formation at its widest part - the "base" of the triangle. The height is equal determined by projecting a vertical line from the first point of contact with the trendline on the left of the chart to the next point of contact with the opposite trendline. In other words, measure from the highest high point on one trendline to the lowest low point on the opposite trendline.

Both these points will be located on the far left of the formation. Next, locate the "apex" of the triangle (the point where the trendlines converge). Take the result of the measurement of the height of the triangle and add it to the price marked by the apex of the triangle if an upside breakout occurs and subtract it from the apex price if the triangle experiences a downside breakout.

For example, working with a symmetrical triangle, assume the highest high of the pattern occurs at 100 and the lowest low at 80. The height of the pattern is 20 (100 - 80 = 20). The apex of the triangle occurs at 90. The pattern has an upside breakout. Using the measuring rule, the target price is 110 (90 + 20 = 110).

4. Duration of the Triangle - As mentioned before, the triangle is a relatively short-term pattern. It may take up to one month to form and it usually forms in less than three months.

5. Forecasting Implications - Once breakout occurs, the symmetrical triangle tends to be a reliable pattern. Bulkowski calculates failure rates ranging between 2% and 6% for symmetrical triangles after a valid breakout.

To avoid mistaking a false move for a valid breakout, experts advise waiting a few days to see if the breakout is dependable. According to Murphy, minimum penetration criteria would be a closing price outside the trendline and not just an intraday penetration. Investors do have time once a breakout has occurred.18 According to Bulkowski, when considering symmetrical triangles, an investor will have over five months to reach the ultimate high after an upside breakout and less than half that time after a downside breakout

Because premature breakouts (where prices close outside of the trendline) are so common, don't dismiss the pattern if it has experienced such a breakout. According to Bulkowski, however, "premature breakouts do not predict the final breakout direction or success or failure of the formation."

NIFTY, working with a symmetrical triangle, the highest high of the pattern occurs at 6240 and the lowest low at 5480. The height of the pattern is 760 points (6240 – 5480 = 760). The apex of the triangle occurs at 5600. The pattern has an down side breakout. Using the measuring rule, the target price is 4840 (5600 – 760 = 4840).

With the above move it is also showing A-B-C Pattern Formation where it is expected to test 161% expansion of A-B from point C which comes to 5002 levels. Point a is at 6240 & Point b is at 5560, point c at 6110 has given retracement of 76.4% of the rise and confirming the Down side target. Taking 161.8 % Fibonacci Expansion of the A to B from the point C, comes to lower level of 5002 which can be seen in near term.

I maintain Sell call from the previous report generated at 6050 for target of 5600 and now I am still looking at 5000 to 4840 which is expected and still expect it to move lower. On lower side support of 4800 and if the same support is also broken then might look at 4200 - 3800 in long term, where further panic selling might take it to 2600 which is 2008 lower level.

News to read and share !!!!

Hello friends rupee closing is seen at all time high at 61.07 spot closing basis and future closing at 61.45 where expected tgt is 68 and 72 immediately
Nifty and bank nifty are bleeding and this is just the start of movie and still blood bath is expected where nifty cmp 5700 will test 4400 to 3500 and bank nifty cmp 10050  will test 8000 and 5500 in near term. 
Have been informing the same situation from long time and want to know on personal front look at banking stocks. 
Looking at gold 25000 has tested once in mcx future for 1 day cmp 27600 and I feel if retest 25000 in spot buy in bulk expected tgt 70k.  Silver cmp 41400 mcx future do not look like it will trade below 38000 and long term tgt 1.5lk Advise to start buying from today and keep adding.. 
3 to 6 months down the line tough time is expected. 
After diwali I feel real things will come out in India as people want ganpati and diwali to pass by before they get on street for mass protest. .. can look at 1975 to 1977 recession emergency
Just pray . Jai shri krishna.

NIFTY positional view ... RED ALERT

RED ALERT :::::

NIFTY majour support of 5600 on clsoing basis ,,, hope this holds if this is broken dont wait on long side,,,, CMP is 5675 i am looking at 5100 - 4600 in near term... BUYERS be aware.... I am also looking for 4000 level where stocks will be way below the lvl by 30 - 40 % from CMP