RUPEE Bull Flag Pattern Breakout 3 months view

Rupee: Support 47.40 – 49 – 50 Pivot 50.60 Resistance 51.60 – 52.20 – 53.80

Rupee: A Flag (Bullish) follows a steep or nearly vertical rise in price, and consists of two parallel trend lines that form a rectangular flag shape. The Flag can be horizontal (as though the wind is blowing it), however it often has a slight downtrend. The vertical uptrend, that precedes a Flag, may occur because of buyers' reactions to a favorable company earnings announcement, or a new product launch. The sharp price increase is sometimes referred to as the "flagpole" or "mast". Flags are very similar to Pennants. However, with a Flag, the price trend lines tend to run parallel, whereas with a Pennant, the price trend lines tend to converge. A bullish signal occurs when the price rebounds beyond the upper trend line of the Flag formation, and continues the original upward price movement. This is considered a pattern confirmation.

Looking at the chart of Rupee has started its rally from 44.80Per$ and after testing the higher level of 50.5 per$ it has been in the consolidation phase where on lower side it was taking support at 48.98 and 48.86 per$ just below 49 per$ and reversal in prices were seen from lower level. On higher side it was facing resistance at 50.5 per$ to 50.6 per$ and selling was seen from higher level. Recently it’s showing sign of give positive Breakout above 50.65 per$ indicating breakout of the Bull Flag pattern. Pole of the Flag started from 44.8 per$ to 50.5 per$ where the difference comes to 5.7 where if we look at breakout above 50.65 per$ expected target comes to 56.35 per$ in medium term. On the way up we might look at some resistance at level of 52 per$ and above 52 small resistance can also bee seen at 53.5 per$ and 55 per$ where some intervention can be expected from RBI side which might halt the Rupee for short term.

RAJEEV DARJI

9820987859

Daily Nifty & Rupee Outlook for 15th Nov 2011

Nifty: Nifty yesterday which opened gap up above 100 DMA at 5237 and after opening correction started where it traded below 5200 and tested the lower level of 5146 and closing was also seen at days low? Today as the Asian market is trading flat and negative where Nifty is expected to take support at falling trend line of 5125 level. Short bounce can be expected which can be used as a selling opportunity where near term resistance is seen at 5215 level and till the time this resistance hold selling is advise around 5160 – 5180 level. in the last trading session after the gap down opening. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 5120 will bring to 5070 to 5000 level in near term. Immediate resistance is seen at 5200 and its expected to hold the resistance level and we maintain bearish view where 5000 is the next target and below 5000 can also test 4700 level in medium term. Stochastic which were in down trend just below 20% zone has given negative intersection and if the resistance is holding may again turn negative.

USD/INR: Rupee in the previous session which open at 50.10 per$ hold lower level support of 50 per$ and sharp reversal in price were seen and traded above 50.25 and tested days high of 50.57 per$ and closing was also seen near the higher level at 50.48 per$. Today’s after gap up opening near 50.54 per$ slight if sustain trading above 50.6 per$ is seen will give a fresh breakout in market where uptrend will continue and will move to test 50.9 per$ immediately. Rupee will give a Bull Flag Pattern Breakout if todays closing is seen above 50.65 per$ where in near term 52 per$ to 55 per$ will be the target. Dollar index is trading just above 77.5 level at 77.58 and is taking support at 77 and if some reversal in price is expected where on higher side 77.8 and 78.4 can be retested. Rupee is expected to trade in range of 50.55 per$ to 50.95per$ for the day with buying at dips advise. Stochastic are trading just below overbought zone with positive intersection where some rise in price is expected.

Copper outlook for Short term 11th Nov 2011

Copper: Support 6350 – 6950 – 7250 Pivot 7560 Resistance 7850 – 8150 – 8750

Copper: The head-and-shoulders pattern is one of the most popular and reliable chart patterns in technical analysis. And as one might imagine from the name, the pattern looks like a head with two shoulders. Head and shoulders is a reversal pattern that, when formed, signals the security is likely to move against the previous trend. There are two versions of the head-and-shoulders pattern. The head-and-shoulders top is a signal that a security's price is set to fall, once the pattern is complete, and is usually formed at the peak of an upward trend. The second version, the head-and-shoulders bottom (also known as inverse head and shoulders), signals that a security's price is set to rise and usually forms during a downward trend.

Looking at the chart of Copper it has started its rally from 2800 and after testing the higher level of 7950 short correction was seen forming the left shoulder and tested the support of 6000 level. There after the rise which was seen crossed the higher level of 7950 and move further upside where 10150 were tested. There after reversal for the higher level again it has taken support at 6610 level and formed a neck line where shot bounce which was expected has been seen and tested the higher level of 8150 level. Further we are looking the formation of the Right Shoulder where short term top is expected to be posted and will move to test the Neck Line which comes at 6650 level and once this support of 6650 and sustain trading below 6600 will confirm the down trend where its next down side target will be the previous bottom of 2800 around. If we look at the Fibonacci Expansion of point a-b from point c which comes to 5400 which is 100% and 4850 comes to 121% level will be the immediate target where it may get halt for some time before the next round of selling which may be seen after short bounce. We are on the over view where the lower side bottom may be seen at 4850 level and after testing the same further trend will be clear rather it will move to test 2800 or price may revert from the lower level of 5400 or 4850 level around.

Prepared By: Rajeev R. Darji

Sr. Research Specialist

XTB India

EURUSD outlook for Short term 9th Nov 2011

EURO: Support 1.3200 – 1.3450 – 1.3550 Pivot 1.3700 Resistance 1.3800 – 1.3950 – 1.4200

EURO: A Pennant (Bearish) is considered a bearish signal, indicating that the current downtrend may continue. A Pennant (Bearish) follows a steep or nearly vertical fall in price, and consists of two converging trend lines that form a narrow, tapering flag shape. The Pennant shape generally appears as a horizontal shape, rather than one with a downtrend or uptrend. Apart from its shape, the Pennant is similar in all respects to the Flag. The Pennant is also similar to the Symmetrical Triangle or Wedge continuation patterns however; the Pennant is typically shorter in duration and flies horizontally.

Looking at the chart Euro after the fall from the higher level of 1.4250 has tested the level of 1.3600 and after the fall has been in the consolidation phase and was showing higher bottom formation and was facing good resistance at 1.3850 level where selling was seen at higher level. Closing basis was not above to holding the level above 1.3800 and selling pressure was seen at higher level. . On lower side support was seen at 1.3700 which was the rising trend ling and today it has convincingly broken the same and is expect to move further down side. The highest of the Pole is 650 pips and crossover below 1.3700 brings the lower target of 1.3200 to 1.3100 levels. This is near the previous bottom what we have seen around September 2011

POSITIONAL CALL GOLD / EURUSD / CRUDE

POSITIONAL CALL :::: Rajeev: Gold Comex Sell @ 1765 TGT 1720 1670 1620 Stop Loss 1800 CMP 1765 11/7/2011 15:56

POSITIONAL CALL ::: Rajeev: EURUSD Sell @ 1.3700 TGT 1.3550 1.3400 1.3200 Stop Loss 1.377 CMP 1.3700 11/7/2011 15:55

POSITIONAL CALL ::: Rajeev: Brent Crude Sell @ 111.6 TGT 110 108 105 Stop Loss 113 CMP 111.6 11/7/2011 15:58

Daily Nifty & Rupee Outlook for 3rd Nov 2011

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the gap down opening at 5261 failed to cross the lower support level of 5250 and reverted from lower level testing higher level of 5332 level where days high was posted and closing was seen at days low around 5254 level. Today as the Asian market are trading negative market are likely to open negative and immediate support is seen at 5250 and further trading below 5250 will bring to 5180 and 5150 in intraday, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 5300 and crossover above the same will bring back to 5350 level. Nifty if fails to cross the higher resistance level of 5350 will bring back to lower support of 5250 and further below 5250 closing will come to 5000 as next support in coming days, where as further crossover above 5350 will confirm the uptrend to test 5500 level soon. Stochastic has just reverted from overbought zone and is showing negative intersection where is trading below 80% zone will bring it further down side where selling pressure in prices is expected.

USD/INR: Rupee yesterday just traded below the immediate support of 49.1 and reverted from the lower level and tested the days high at 49.42 where at the end of the session some profit booking was seen and closing was seen at 49.18 level. Today’s after gap down opening near 49.17 failed to trade below 49.1 and is currently trading at 49.4 where is nearing the resistance of 49.5 and further upside is expected to test the level of 49.7 – 49.9 immediately in few days. If sustain trading is seen above 49.42 will bring to 49.6 to 49.95 $, further above 50 per$ will bring to 52 to 53per$ in near to medium term which is expected target till the time 49$ holds on closing basis. I expect it to move upside beyond 50 in near to medium term for higher target. Dollar index which traded above 77 and was holding the support level of 76.8 and is trading at 77.3 where some range trading is expected where 77 is support and 77.7 is the resistance level. Rupee is expected to trade in range of 49.2per$ to 49.7per$ for the day with buying at dips advise. Stochastic has just reverted from the oversold zone and is trading at 50% zone indicating some upside way move to continue.

Nifty & Rupee Overview for 1st Nov 2011

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the gap down opening failed to cross the higher resistance level of 5400 and reverted from 5375 level where low of the day was posted at 5332 and closing was also seen at day’s low. Today as the Asian market are trading negative market are likely to open negative and immediate support is seen at 5300 and further trading below 5300 will bring to 5250 in intraday, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 5350 and crossover above the same will bring back to 5400 level. Nifty if fails to cross the higher resistance level of 5400 will bring back to lower support of 5320 and further below 5300 closing will come to 5150 as next support, where as further crossover above 5400 will confirm the uptrend to test 5500 level soon. Stochastic has just entered in overbought zone and is showing sign of negative intersection where only trading below 80% zone will bring it further down side where selling pressure in prices can be seen.

USD/INR: Rupee is taking support at 48.5 per$ to 48.6per$ area and bounce is seen from the lower level where on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 49.1 per$. Today the opening at 48.65 per$ but fails to cross the lower support of 48.5 per$ level. On higher side if sustain trading is seen above 49 will bring to 49.4 to 49.8 $, further above 50 per$ will bring to 52 to 53.5per$ in near to medium term which is expected target till the time 48.5$ holds on closing basis. I expect it to move upside beyond 50 in near to medium term for higher target. Dollar index which traded above 76 and was holding the support level of 76 and is trading at 76.55 where some range trading is expected where 76.4 is support and 77.4 is the resistance level. Rupee is expected to trade in range of 48.7per$ to 49.3per$ for the day. Stochastic has just reverted from the oversold zone and is flat near 15% zone indicating some side way move to continue.