NIFTY TOPOUT @ 6100 SPOT AND fUTURE @ 6150

NIFTY TOPOUT @ 6100 SPOT AND fUTURE @ 6150

INFY result update chart formation Inverted Flag

Expectation : If INFY is failing to trade above recent high of 3200 today and at the end of the day closing is seen around 3050 and below the same around 3020 its confirm market is going to give a gapdown opening and will test 2850 - 2750 level immidiately and in near to medoum term it wil test lower support level around 2200 where multiple support is seen. 

Scenerio 1 : Inverted Flag pole difference is seen from 3500 to 2160 = 1340 points, support breakdown is seen at 2180 and sustain on weekly chart below 2180 will give target of 840 level on lower sdie in long term. 

Scenerio 2 : If we take rectangle pattern formation where the trading range of rectangle is from 3000 higher resistance to 2600 support where the height of the rectangle is 400 points and breakdown below 2160 weekly clsoing will bring level of 1760 (3000 - 2200 = 400) (2180 - 400 = 1760) as medium term level. .

Contra : If sustai ntrading is seen above 3200 on clsoing basis will retest higher level of 3500 in near to medium term. Tille the time below 3200 on weekly clsoing expectation it will give a sharp correction as might get a hard hit due to rupee fluctuation which has hit the Profitability as this is just a personal view.

Trade on with stop of ressitance and support given, and its investors call at the end of the say. 

Happy Trading.
Jai Mata Dee... 

Black Friday expected on 11th October 2013, infy result CMP is 3145

* INFY SELL @ 3145 STOP @ 3165 TGT 3100 3050 3000 - 10/10/2013 13:34
result tomorrow @ 8.30 :: lookng at sharp correction ...

* Bank Nifty SELL @ 10400 STOP @ 10460 TGT 10330 10240 10150 - 10/10/2013 13:37
Positional...

* Nifty SELL @ 6055 STOP @ 6085 TGT 6020 5980 5930 10/10/2013 13:38
Positional ... 

GBPUSD Head & Shoulder pattern formation

A Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forms after an uptrend, and its completion marks a trend reversal. The pattern contains three successive peaks with the middle peak (head) being the highest and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being low and roughly equal. The reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form support, or a neckline.

As its name implies, the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is made up of a left shoulder, a head, a right shoulder, and a neckline. Other parts playing a role in the pattern are volume, the breakout, price target and support turned resistance. We will look at each part individually, and then put them together with some examples.

1.        Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior uptrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior uptrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (or any reversal pattern for that matter).

2.        Left Shoulder: While in an uptrend, the left shoulder forms a peak that marks the high point of the current trend. After making this peak, a decline ensues to complete the formation of the shoulder (1). The low of the decline usually remains above the trend line, keeping the uptrend intact.

3.        Head: From the low of the left shoulder, an advance begins that exceeds the previous high and marks the top of the head. After peaking, the low of the subsequent decline marks the second point of the neckline (2). The low of the decline usually breaks the uptrend line, putting the uptrend in jeopardy.

4.        Right Shoulder: The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline.

5.        Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two low points, the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bearishness—a downward slope is more bearish than an upward slope. Sometimes more than one low point can be used to form the neckline.

6.        Volume: As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV,  Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. This decrease in volume and the new high of the head, together, serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder.

7.        Neckline Break: The head and shoulders pattern is not complete and the uptrend is not reversed until neckline support is broken. Ideally, this should also occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion in volume.

8.        Support Turned Resistance: Once support is broken, it is common for this same support level to turn into resistance. Sometimes, but certainly not always, the price will return to the support break, and offer a second chance to sell. 

9.        Price Target: After breaking neckline support, the projected price decline is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the top of the head. This distance is then subtracted from the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered as well. These factors might include previous support levels, Fibonacci retracements, or long-term moving averages.

GBPUSD has given a confirm breakdown below the neck lint in 4hr time frame at 1.6020 and till the time this resistance of 1.6020 is holding on closing basis I am expecting GBOUSD to test the level of 1.5700 – 1.5550 level in near term. First resistance at 1.5620 and major resistance and stop advice at 1.6130 above the right shoulder.

Bear Flag Pattern Formation Breakdown @ 29900 and 29500 closing basis tgt 27275 - 24650

Bear Flag Pattern Formation Breakdown @ 29900 and 29500 closing basis tgt 27275 - 24650

Gold Head & Shoulder Pattern as well as ABC pattern showing same target 1145$

The basic "ABC" pattern is first described in H.M. Gartley's book, Profits in the Stock Market (1935). This pattern is shaped like a lightning bolt and signals a trend, a retracement and the resumption of the trend. This pattern is also called the "ABC Wave" or 1-2-3 pattern by technical analysts.

The "ABC" patterns forecast key market turning points and profit targets for traders. "ABC" patterns pinpoint important pivot levels with high and low prices and identify key trading zones.

The key point in identifying a "ABC" is correctly finding the A, B, and C pivot points in a chart. These key pivots are found using for various "pivot strength" levels, and for its correction waves. Once A, B, and C pivots are identified, an Auto-levels algorithm is applied to determine the confluence level "D". This area is called "Potential Reversal Zone" (PRZ). The "C" pivot in "ABC" patterns are determined by the Fibonacci retracement of (38.2 to 61 -8 percent) of AB swing. The projection from "C" level is measured using fib-ratios of AB and BC swings. Some traders use the confluence of these ratio levels as areas for profit taking.

1. Enter a "short" trade below the low of previous bar 1322 (38% of the AB range).

2. Place a "stop" order above level C at 1350.

3. Set "targets" at 100% of AB range (at 1233) and 1144 to 161.8% from point C range.

Head & Shoulder Pattern

It is also forming Head & Shoulder Pattern formation where the height of the Head is 152 Points ( 1434-1282) where 1282 is the midpoint of lower neckline. Breakdown is expected at 1298$ and sustain below 1298 will test 1146$ which is same target two expected by ABC pattern. Current market price is trading at 1425$ and immediate 1420 is support level. 

OIL Falling wedge Reversla Breakout expected @ 108.8$

Falling Market and falling wedge after the fall indicating a reversal in price,, Breakout at 108.80 tgt 112.5 - 117.8 CMP is 108.3 stop @ 107.5

"Falling Wedge" patterns are similar to "Symmetric Triangles" as they form in an angle; where as the "Symmetrical Triangles" form horizontally. "Falling wedge" patterns have lower highs and lower lows and are connected with two angled, slanted trend lines. These trend lines diverge at the bottom. Another type of "wedge" (inverse) pattern has trend lines converging at the bottom. The trend direction on the breakout from the "Falling Wedge" pattern would be upside.

"Falling wedges" are usually bullish in uptrend and downtrend markets. Similarly, "Falling wedge" patterns have a high failure rate. They are relatively difficult to spot them, and tend to work well in bearish markets.

Trade:

The "wedge" patterns are defined by trend. lines connecting the "higher-highs" and "lowerlows." A trend line breakout suggests a "long" trade. Trades are entered after a clear breakout from the trend line. Enter a "long" trade, one tick above the high of the breakout bar from the trend line.

Target:

Place a target at the higher "swing high" level of the "wedge" pattern. A secondary target is set at the depth of the wedge pattern from the breakout level.

Stop:

Place a "stop" order below the lowest level of the "wedge" pattern.

1. A "long" trade was entered above the breakout bars high.

2. A "stop" order was placed below the low of the "wedge" at the 107.5 level.

3. A target is set at the depth of the "wedge" pattern from the trade entry.

Targets: The length of the flagpole can be applied to the resistance break or support break of the flag/pennant to estimate the advance or decline.

Looking at the chart OIL 4hr chart is trading below the critical resistance of 108.8 and is expected to give a sharp continuation of uptrend from current level. If the resistance of 108.8 is holding and sustain trading is seen below 107 will continue in negative trend where on lower side it will move and test the lower level where it can test the level of 105 - 102 support level.