Nifty & Rupee Overview for 16th Oct 2011

Nifty: Nifty which was in down trend yesterday opening was seen flat around 5137 and after short bounce before European market open tested level of 5172 but in last few hrs. Sharp selling was seen and closing was seen around 5061 at days low which was just below 50 DMA of 5071 level. Today as the Asian market is trading flat and negative where Nifty is expected to open below 5050 and will move to test immediate support of 5000 where as on higher side resistance can be seen at 5130 level and till the time this resistance is holding short correction is expected. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 5050 will bring to 5010 to 5000 level in near term. Rupee is also trading at near term high of 51 per$ which is expected to test 54 with stronger Dollar bring further pressure on Nifty with outflow from FII can be expected. We maintain bearish view where 5000 is the next target and below 5000 can also test 4700 level in medium term. Stochastic which were in down trend just below 20% zone where further down side move expected in near to medium term time frame.

USD/INR: Rupee which is in uptrend yesterday opened at 50.54 level and resume its uptrend where has given breakout above resistance level of 50.65 per$ and after testing ther higher level of 50.89 closing was just near the higher level at 50.82 per$. Today’s after gap up opening near 50.98 per$ is expected to take resistance at 51 per$ and will be in the range bound move where on lower side its not expected to trade below 50.65 per$ on closing basis and any dip will be buying opportunity where on higher side if sustain trading above 52 will spark the higher target of 51.4 per$ to 51.8 per$ immediately. Dollar index is trading just above 78 level at 78.25 and is taking support at 77.8 and is expected to continue the uptrend where on higher side 78.5 and 79 can be the expected target. Rupee is expected to trade in range of 50.65 per$ to 50.95per$ for the day with buying at dips advise. Stochastic are trading just entered in overbought zone with positive intersection where some rise in price is expected.