Yearly Report on FX Market USDJPY

USDJPY from the above monthly chart was trading in the descending triangle where the falling trend line from 145 was resistance and on lower side support was seen at 101 parallel line and was looking at a bounce from the same level in year 1999 year and 2004 year but failed the hold the support and gave a breakdown below 101 and tested the level of 75 in the year 2011. There after we have seen a rise from the level of 75 and is trading near the level of 105 and is again nearing the falling trend line which is coming at 109 level. The fall from 121.1 to 75 we can consider as wave i and the recent uptrend can be expected as wave ii, wave ii has exactly retraced by 61.8% of wave I and is facing resistance at 105.5 and reversal is expected from current level only. Previous support of 101 can again be seen as a support level and sustain below the same will confirm the down trend where one can consider the start of wave iii or may say wave c as shown in the graph. If we consider 100% fall of wave I then we might look at 65 – 68 level on lower side.

On the other side if USDJPY failed to sustain below 101 and crossover above 109 will indicated the resistance is crossed and will bring fresh uptrend in market. On higher side 124 – 135 can be retested in medium to long term. As seen in the chart short term it has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern and has given a breakout above 99.6 and as per the triangle breakout it’s expected to test the level of 107.45 which is the high of the triangle. Where on crossover above the trend line weakening of JPY is expected against the Dollar, on other side Dollar index is also expected to get stronger against all the cross currency pair which is explained separately in the report.