Friday, May 23, 2014

One Pager Positional Report on WTI OIL


WTI OIL BUY @ 104 CMP stop @ 101 TGT 108 – 111  :- Wave III completion

                The basic pattern of the Elliott wave principle, how price moves not in a straight line but in a series of rises and retracements. Except for unusual circumstances, price moves in waves and not in a straight-line run. These waves are like the tide coming in. Price advances and recedes, advances a bit more and recedes, slowly creeping up the shore. The outgoing tide shows the wave advance not as far as previous waves, and withdrawing further. The motive phase is composed of three advancing waves, 1, 3, and 5 and counter trend waves 2 and 4. Following the motive wave comes the corrective phase. It shows two receding waves, A and C, with a counter trend wave between, B. The series, 1 through 5 and A through C can be repeated to show how the tide comes in, or price advances up the chart. If you were to zoom in on waves 1 and 2, you would see the same 1 through 5 and ABC combination. You can say the same about waves 3 and 4, 5 and A, B and C (with the structure reversed). In this manner, the cycle is fractal, meaning the closer you zoom in, the more motive and corrective phase combinations you see. If you were to zoom out, say look at the structure from across the room or from the other side of your yard, the 1 through 5 and ABC combination would take shape of waves 1 and 2.


            From the above chart WTI OIL after testing the lower support at 91.75 forming Double Bottom formation and reversal in price was seen and also have crossed the neckline at 100$ and tested the higher level of 105 from where short profit booking was seen. Rise in price from 91.4 to 105.2 can be consider as wave I of the Elliot wave theory and there after correction pattern tested the level of 97 in form of wave II which was near to 61.8% retracement of wave I which was coming at 96.3, but price reverted from 97 and in showing formation of inter wave of wave III. It in inter wave its again in (iii) wave where the expected target comes to 108$ and after a short dip till 106$ in form of wave (iv) will again move to test the level of 111 – 112$ where the inter wave (v) will get over with larger wave III.

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