By Pat Minczeski and Sarah Kent Published May 28, 2015
OPEC accounts for a third of the world’s oil.
Production in 2014; Includes natural-gas liquids and condensates
But a surge in U.S. shale-oil output is challenging its dominance.
Percentage change since the first quarter of 2010 in crude-oil production
Change since the first quarter of 2010 in crude-oil production, in millions of barrels
So OPEC has departed from its historic role as swing producer to defend its market share…
How swings in OPEC production have aligned with changes in the direction of Brent crude-oil futures prices
…and OPEC has ramped up output in recent months.
OPEC increased production in March and April, while U.S. production rose at a slower rate; percentage change in crude production since April 2014
While OPEC’s rivals are cutting investment in response to lower prices.
Global oil and natural gas upstream development capital expenditure, actual and forecast (2015,2016)
But analysts are split as to whether this marks a victory for OPEC that could pave the way for a rebound in prices.
Where investment banks currently (May 2015) see the price per barrel of Brent crude-oil futures heading
Sources: International Energy Agency (OPEC and non-OPEC production, charts 1–4); IEA via Thomson Reuters (production, chart 6); Thomson Reuters (Brent prices); Rystad Energy (capital expenditure); the companies (price forecasts)
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