Rupee one pager report Breakout @ 64.25 CMP 63.90

Report Prepared on 15th June 2015 

Rupee Buy above 64.25        Stop @ 63.5     Target @ 65.40 – 66.45 – 67.20

Ascending Triangle (Continuation)

The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation.

USD/INR formed an ascending triangle over a 6-month period before nearing the breakout resistance with an expansion of volume.

§  From a low of 63.10 in March, the prices established an uptrend by forming a higher low at 63.44 – 63.56 – 63.75 and advancing to a new reaction high in early April. The beginning of the trend started from January low of 61.30 and April Low of 62.05. After recording its highest price Rupee met resistance at 64.25. The duration of the pattern is around 2 months, which may seem quite sufficient. However, all the key ingredients for a robust pattern were in place.

§  The rupee is in advanced to cross 64.25 and once its crossed, immediate move can bring prices to 64.50 – 64.60 level before retesting the original resistance breakout, and this indicated underlying weakness in the currency.

§  The initial weakness was projected to be (64.25-63.1 = 1.15) points from the breakout at 64.25, making an initial target of 65.40. This target is expected to reach within few week. Prices has rose from 61.30 and 62.05 support level before entering in to pattern formation. Height of the poll is expected to be (61.30-64.25 = 2.95) and the higher side target comes to 67.20 in near term. Targets are only meant to be used as guidelines, and other aspects of technical analysis should also be employed for deciding when to sell.