WTI OIL Breakdown

18 Years Ago This Country Collapsed Almost Overnight. Is This Time Different?

Submitted by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

In late June 1997, eighteen years ago, this part of the world felt pretty normal.

People had jobs. Inflation was fairly low. The economy was growing. Confidence was high. Life was great.

For years, most of the economies across Asia had seen meteoric, credit-fueled growth. Capital was pouring in from all corners of the globe, feeding a construction boom and stock frenzy.

Property prices soared. Stock prices soared. It was a classic bubble.

My friends who have been living in the region for decades tell me stories about how people bought property with the expectation to flip it and make a 50% return in no time.

Or they’d invest in the stock market without the slightest bit of analysis, simply because ‘stocks go up.’

That was the prevailing attitude in Asia back then– this time is different, and the good times will last forever.

But it all unraveled, practically overnight.

Thailand was hit first when a nasty currency swing caused the economy to practically grind to a halt. And the pain quickly spread to the rest of the region.

The local currency here in Indonesia, the rupiah, plunged 83% from its pre-crisis levels.

Dozens of banks went under, credit dried up, and many depositors got wiped out.

Then something interesting happened: the Indonesian economy simultaneously experienced BOTH inflation AND deflation.

On one hand, asset prices collapsed. Stocks dropped like a rock, and people felt much more poor.

But as the currency fell, suddenly imports became MUCH more expensive. So retail prices actually increased as consumers paid more, especially for imported goods.

This is about the worst economic scenario imaginable– asset prices falling with retail prices rising. But it happened.

Three important lessons I’d like to highlight:

1) Perhaps the great financial debate of our time is whether the unprecedented monetary expansion over the last several years will result in inflation OR deflation.

There are many a brilliant mind firmly entrenched in one camp or the other.

And the point is, there could easily be BOTH.

2) No one can predict precisely WHEN a correction will occur. But when the great unraveling does unfold, history shows that it happens very quickly.

3) People allow themselves to believe impossible things.

They’ll believe that asset prices can, will, and SHOULD go up forever.

They’ll believe that conjuring trillions of dollars out of thin air is consequence-free.

But they refuse to believe in the possibility that something will go wrong.

This time is never different.

Rajeev : We r at same crossroad again .. ALERT... This time dip is not a buy but EXIT and Sit on CASH ... 

Yes bank Sell call : Channel pattern 76.8% retraced

PLANET X - NIBIRU Crop Circles Tell ARRIVAL Date & Its NOT GOOD NEWS 2015

Technical charts - Reliance / SBIN & ICICI - Self explained charts

DE30 - NIfty - Banknifty - Dow - S&P trader call at cmp live

De30 Sell @ cmp 11385 stop @ 11460 tgt 11200 - 11050 - 10800

NIfty Sell @ CMP 8357 Stop @ 8405 tgt 8200 - 8100 - 8050

Bank nifty  Sell @ CMP 18350 Stop @ 18500 tgt 18000 - 17750 - 17500

Dow Sell @ CMP  18070 Stop @ 18220 tgt 17700 - 17400 - 17100

S&P Sell @ CMP 2116 sto p@ 2150 tgt 2060 - 2010 - 1900

Hot Explosive Breaking News: It’s Contagion: Banks in the Bucket

Sunday, June 21, 2015 14:58

It’s Contagion: Banks in the Bucket

 

by Tom Heneghan, International Intelligence Expert

source

UNITED States of America  -  It can now be reported that the Greek euro denominated debt has escalated to $360 billion.  This now represents as much as $25 TRILLION of worthless cross-collateralized derivatives, which are now outstanding with the Bank of England and the Bank of New York Mellon as counter parties.

 

They have joined Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citibank of New York, German Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale of France and Barclays Bank of England as catching full scale contagion disease.

 

Without a Greek deal all of these aforementioned banks collapse leading to capital controls and the possibility of worldwide bank runs.

 

At this hour it is all about the repo rate, the lack of liquidity in the system leading to a derivative debacle.

 

We can also divulge that the Greek government is enraged having learned that various financial ministers tied to European Union nations have created secret offshore tax havens in the Cayman Islands using the euro payments of the Greek People to establish these illegal offshore accounts.

 

Note:  IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde has now opened up a massive investigation of this money laundry.

 

P.S.  With massive financial Armageddon imminent aka a massive worldwide crooked bank “BAIL-IN”, the NAZI Paperclip U.S. NSA continues to script racial incidents aka FBI Division 5 racial “psy ops” (using mind control scalar technology linked to U.S. cell phones) as test runs in advance of another 9/11 BLACK OP-style False Flag Psy Ops reference a bio-chemical attack on the American People to be blamed on the “crisis actors” British Petroleum and British Intelligence bought and paid for puppets, the British Blackwater trained ISIS group.

 

History lesson:  The first British bio-chemical attack on the American People took place at the end of the American Revolutionary War when British General Cornwallis infected thousands of black slaves with smallpox and tried to transport them into the American and French army lines that were within five miles of the British and German Hessian forces.

 

The bio-chemical attack failed and the British and German Hessian mercenaries were routed by Washington and Lafayette leading to British capitulation at Yorktown and the end of the American Revolutionary War and freedom and liberty from the tyrannical British monarchy.

 

In closing, beware of certain American politicians that voted for the Patriot Act and the Bush-British illegal war in Iraq that resulted in the murders and/or injury of millions of innocent Iraqi civilians based on false evidence reference NO weapons of mass destruction, who now want to use a scripted racial incident in the American south as a predicate to shred the 2nd Amendment to the Constitution of the United States, the supreme law of our land.

 

Guess, folks, who the leader is of the chorus to disarm the American People:  her initials are HRC.

 

So, after more than 200 years of American history with the Second American Revolution due to commence immediately, identify the enemy, it is still the British Monarchy!!!

 

Remember that British piece of crap that used to be on CNN, Piers Morgan, who wanted to disarm the American People, shred the Constitution and half-hearted jokes in having the United States be returned to British monarchial rule.

Gold Buy trend Technical report

Gold in short-term we can expect rise in the futures contract traded on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) seems to be on the fresh upside move. The contract is showing breakout as the prices are trading above 27050 Rs/10 gm just crossing the 50% resistance level, where as the support is seen at 26860 Rs/10 gm which is 38.2% retracement of point B to Point C.

After testing the lower level of 26350 at point C prices has reverted from the lower level and in the past few trading session is trading in the range where on higher side it is failing to cross 27080 level and on lower side support is seen at 26800 Rs/10 gm. Once the resistance level of 27080 is crossed prices will rise to test 273750 Rs/10 gm immediately.  A fresh rally to test the next resistance at  27375  looks likely in the coming days. A strong break above this hurdle can take the contract further higher to the next target of 27680 Rs/10 gm.

Short-term traders can trade with support of 26860 and can look forward for the target of 27375 and 27700 levels.

Rupee one pager report Breakout @ 64.25 CMP 63.90

Report Prepared on 15th June 2015 

Rupee Buy above 64.25        Stop @ 63.5     Target @ 65.40 – 66.45 – 67.20

Ascending Triangle (Continuation)

The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation.

USD/INR formed an ascending triangle over a 6-month period before nearing the breakout resistance with an expansion of volume.

§  From a low of 63.10 in March, the prices established an uptrend by forming a higher low at 63.44 – 63.56 – 63.75 and advancing to a new reaction high in early April. The beginning of the trend started from January low of 61.30 and April Low of 62.05. After recording its highest price Rupee met resistance at 64.25. The duration of the pattern is around 2 months, which may seem quite sufficient. However, all the key ingredients for a robust pattern were in place.

§  The rupee is in advanced to cross 64.25 and once its crossed, immediate move can bring prices to 64.50 – 64.60 level before retesting the original resistance breakout, and this indicated underlying weakness in the currency.

§  The initial weakness was projected to be (64.25-63.1 = 1.15) points from the breakout at 64.25, making an initial target of 65.40. This target is expected to reach within few week. Prices has rose from 61.30 and 62.05 support level before entering in to pattern formation. Height of the poll is expected to be (61.30-64.25 = 2.95) and the higher side target comes to 67.20 in near term. Targets are only meant to be used as guidelines, and other aspects of technical analysis should also be employed for deciding when to sell.

MNM symmetrical triangle patten formation

HUL and LNT chart.. reversal point.

The Next Great European Financial Crisis Has Begun

The Greek financial system is in the process of totally imploding, and the rest of Europe will soon follow. Neither the Greeks nor the Germans are willing to give in, and that means that there is very little chance that a debt deal is going to happen by the end of June. So that means that we will likely see a major Greek debt default and potentially even a Greek exit from the eurozone. At this point, credit default swaps on Greek debt have risen 456 percent in price since the beginning of this year, and the market has priced in a 75 percent chance that a Greek debt default will happen. Over the past month, the yield on two year Greek bonds has skyrocketed from 20 percent to more than 30 percent, and the Greek stock market has fallen by a total of 13 percent during the last three trading days alone. This is what a financial collapse looks like, and if Greece does leave the euro, we are going to see this kind of carnage happen all over Europe.

Officials over in Europe are now openly speaking of the need to prepare for a “state of emergency” now that negotiations have totally collapsed.  At one time, it would have been unthinkable for Greece to leave the euro, but now it appears  that this is precisely what will happen unless a miracle happens…

Greece is heading for a state of emergency and an exit from the euro following the collapse of talks to agree a bailout deal, senior EU officials warned last night.

Europe must be prepared to step in otherwise Greek society would face an unprecedented crisis with power blackouts, medicine shortages and no money to pay for police, they said.

In the past, the Greeks have always buckled under pressure.  But this new Greek government was elected with a mandate to end austerity, and so far they have shown a remarkable amount of resolve.  In order for a debt deal to happen, one side is going to have to blink, and at this point it does not look like it will be the Greeks…

The world’s financial markets are facing up to the possibility that Greece could soon become the first country to crash out of Europe’s single currency. Talks between Athens and its eurozone creditors have collapsed in acrimony just days before a final deadline for Greece to unlock the €7.2bn (£5.2bn) in bailout funds it needs to avoid a catastrophic debt default.

The Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, accused the creditor powers of hidden “political motives” in their demands that Greece make further cuts to public pension payments in return for the financial aid. “We are shouldering the dignity of our people, as well as the hopes of the people of Europe,” Mr Tsipras said in a defiant statement. “We cannot ignore this responsibility. This is not a matter of ideological stubbornness. This is about democracy.”

As we approach the point of no return, both sides are preparing for the endgame.

In Greece, members of parliament have been studying what happened in Iceland a few years ago.  Many of them believe that a Greek debt default combined with a nationalization of Greek banks and a Greek exit from the euro could set the nation back on the path to prosperity fairly rapidly.  The following comes from the Telegraph…

The radical wing of Greece’s Syriza party is to table plans over coming days for an Icelandic-style default and a nationalisation of the Greek banking system, deeming it pointless to continue talks with Europe’s creditor powers.

Syriza sources say measures being drafted include capital controls and the establishment of a sovereign central bank able to stand behind a new financial system. While some form of dual currency might be possible in theory, such a structure would be incompatible with euro membership and would imply a rapid return to the drachma.

The confidential plans were circulating over the weekend and have the backing of 30 MPs from the Aristeri Platforma or ‘Left Platform’, as well as other hard-line groupings in Syriza’s spectrum. It is understood that the nationalist ANEL party in the ruling coalition is also willing to force a rupture with creditors, if need be.

Meanwhile, in a desperate attempt to get the Greeks to give in at the last moment, Greek’s creditors are preparing to pull out all the stops in order to put as much financial pressure on Greece as possible…

Germany’s Suddeutsche Zeitung reported that the creditors are drawing an ultimatum to the Greeks, threatening to cut off Greek access to the European payments system and forcing capital controls on the country as soon as this weekend. The plan would lead to the temporary closure of the banks, followed by a rationing of cash withdrawals.

For a long time, most in the financial world assumed that a debt deal would eventually happen.  But now reality is setting in.  As I mentioned at the top of this article, the cost to insure Greek debt has risen by an astounding 456 percent since the beginning of this year…

Given these dramatic stakes, the risk of a Greek default has gone way up. One way to measure that risk is by looking at the skyrocketing price of insurance policies that would pay out if Greek bonds go bust. The cost to insure Greek debt for one year against the risk of default has skyrocketed 456% since the start of the 2015, according to FactSet data.

These insurance-like contracts, known as credit default swaps, imply there is a 75% to 80% probability of Greece defaulting on its debt, according to Jigar Patel, a credit strategist at Barclays.

The probability of a Greek default soars to a whopping 95% for five-year CDS, Patel said.

“Default is looking more and more likely,” Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.

And in recent days, we have also seen Greek stocks and Greek bonds totally crash.  The following comes from CNN…

The Greek stock market has plummeted 13% over the past three trading days, including a 3% drop on Tuesday alone.

In the bond market, the yield on Greek two-year debt has skyrocketed to 30.2%. A month ago, the yield was only 20%. Yields rise as bond prices fall.

Of course if there is a Greek debt default and Greece does leave the euro, it won’t just be Greece that pays the price.

As I have written about previously, there are tens of trillions of dollars in derivatives that are directly tied to currency exchange rates and 505 trillion dollarsin derivatives that are directly tied to interest rates.  A “Grexit” would cause the euro to drop like a rock and interest rates all over the continent would start to go crazy.  The financial chaos that a “Grexit” would cause should not be underestimated.

And there are signs that some of Europe’s biggest banks are already on the verge of collapse.  For example, just consider what has been going on at the biggest bank in Germany.  Both of the co-CEOs at Deutsche Bank recently resigned, and it is increasingly looking as if it could soon become Europe’s version of Lehman Brothers.  The following summary of the recent troubles at Deutsche Bank comes from an article that was posted on NotQuant…

Here’s a re-cap of what’s happened at Deutsche Bank over the past 15 months: 

• In April of 2014,  Deutsche Bank was forced to raise an additional 1.5 Billion of Tier 1 capital to support it’s capital structure.  Why?
• 1 month later in May of 2014, the scramble for liquidity continued as DB announced the selling of 8 billion euros worth of stock – at up to a 30% discount.   Why again?  It was a move which raised eyebrows across the financial media.  The calm outward image of Deutsche Bank did not seem to reflect their rushed efforts to raise liquidity.  Something was decidedly rotten behind the curtain.
• Fast forwarding to March of this year:   Deutsche Bank fails the banking industry’s “stress tests” and is given a stern warning to shore up it’s capital structure.
• In April,  Deutsche Bank confirms it’s agreement to a joint settlement with the US and UK regarding the manipulation of LIBOR.   The bank is saddled with a massive $2.1 billion payment to the DOJ.  (Still, a small fraction of their winnings from the crime). 
• In May,  one of Deutsche Bank’s CEOs, Anshu Jain is given an enormous amount of new authority by the board of directors.  We guess that this is a “crisis move”.  In times of crisis the power of the executive is often increased.
• June 5:  Greece misses it’s payment to the IMF.   The risk of default across all of it’s debt is now considered acute.   This has massive implications for Deutsche Bank.
• June 6/7:  (A Saturday/Sunday, and immediately following Greece’s missed payment to the IMF) Deutsche Bank’s two CEO’s announce their surprise departure from the company.  (Just one month after Jain is given his new expanded powers).   Anshu Jain will step down first at the end of June.  Jürgen Fitschen will step down next May.
• June 9: S&P lowers the rating of Deutsche Bank to BBB+  Just three notches above “junk”.  (Incidentally,  BBB+ is even lower than Lehman’s downgrade – which preceded it’s collapse by just 3 months)

And that’s where we are now.  How bad is it?  We don’t know because we won’t be permitted to know.  But these are not the moves of a healthy company.

For a very long time, I have been warning that a major financial crisis was coming to Europe, and for a very long time the authorities in Europe have been able to successfully kick the can down the road.

But now it looks like we have reached the end of the road, and a day of reckoning is finally here.

Nobody is quite sure what is going to happen next, but almost everyone agrees that it isn’t going to be pretty.

So you better buckle up, because it looks like we are all in for a wild ride as we enter the second half of this year.

Sources : http://www.rightsidenews.com/2015061735973/us/economics/the-next-great-european-financial-crisis-has-begun.html

Indian Silver Demand Explodes to Silver Owners’ Delight

- India may absorb as much as one third of total global silver production this year
- Strong demand for silver steadily increasing year by year
- Indian citizens and solar industry take advantage of current low prices in silver
- U.S. silver imports still enormous despite ostensible decline in demand

The first four months of 2015 saw India import possibly as much as 3,000 tonnes of silver bullion. If the momentum is maintained India is on track to import a staggering 9,000 tonnes over the course of 2015.

This would represent almost one third of total annual mine supply globally. Worldwide mine supply was 877 million troy ounces (27,277 metric tonnes).

It would represent a 27% increase in India’s 2014 silver imports of 7063 tonnes which itself was a 13%  increase on the 2013 figure showing a steadily growing demand for physical silver in India with each passing year.

According to srsroccoreport.com, who compiled the data, it is Indian citizens who are the driving force behind the record demand for silver in India. We would speculate that India’s commitment to solar power may also be a factor.

Back in 2009, the Indian government set a target of 20GW of solar power generation by 2020. However, in January of this year the government dramatically reaffirmed its commitment to solar power by setting a new target of generating 100GW by 2022.

Solar power is generated by photovoltaic cells which rely upon silver for their manufacture. While PV cells used in India are predominantly manufactured in China it may be that Indian investors may be accumulating silver in anticipation of growing demand for PV cells – China also has a highly ambitious solar power program – or it may be that the government itself is stockpiling supplies to protect against supply disruptions.

GoldCore Gold Silver Ratio

Srsroccoreport.com also point out that silver imports into the U.S. continue to be enormous. They speculate that this is due to a handful of institutions and high net worth individuals buying silver while sentiment among the wider public remains pessimistic – a good contrarian indicator.

Silver is a useful component in any portfolio. While like all markets today, it is quite volatile, an allocation to physical silver compliments gold as a diversification and is a leveraged form of gold due to its tendency to outperform gold and provide higher returns in bull markets.

Many investors store silver in secure safe haven storage vaults, many more store silver with the Perth Mint Certificate Program, which allows investors to store silver at low cost and in the comfort of a government guarantee. At GoldCore, we have long believed that silver is an integral part of a portfolio of precious metals. The percentage of silver, depending on your attitude to risk and advice from your financial planner, should not make up more than 25% of your precious metal allocation.

A Word of Caution When Buying Silver: As a long term investor it is critical that you do not buy from a closed market digital metal provider who may entice you with ultra cheap premiums. For starters you may be limited in how you can sell your silver, should the time come, as the only market available to you will be the one made by the provider and the fees they charge may be subject to change at a moments notice. Short term investors may well be safe in such programs but for those with longer time horizons – safety and flexibility should trump all other considerations.

How euro correlates with crude and why analysts predict euro-dollar parity looking back at oil prices

     

When oil started falling in the mid-2014, it was one more reason for Europe to step up monetary stimulus to boost price growth, because the European Central Bank gives more weight to the influence of energy prices on inflation than the Federal Reserve.
The correlation has become “very strong” and is “linked to the difference in the way the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank approach inflation,” said Stephen Jen, managing partner and founder of hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP in London.
As a result, the euro dropped almost 25 percent against the dollar through mid-March, before rallying in line with oil.
As correlation is mounting, analyst predictions that crude prices will not recover in the next several months are backing the view that the single currency will fall toward parity with the dollar.
“Having seen how the bounce in oil prices coincided with the bounce in the euro against the dollar, I’m starting to take this relationship more seriously,” Jen said.
Forecasts that oil isn’t about to hit its peak of $107.73 almost a year ago are giving confidence to euro bears such as Credit Agricole SA, which predicts a decline to parity with the dollar by December, from $1.1030 as of 7:58 a.m. in New York.

ECB vs Fed policy

The ECB aims to keep price stability, which it defines as CPI (consumer-price inflation) - a measure that includes energy prices - of just under 2 percent.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation estimate also includes an energy component, but historically, U.S. central bankers have paid more attention to a measure that excludes food and energy prices. When this core index climbed more than economists predicted on May 22, the dollar rallied against its rivals.
The links between oil and expectations for consumer prices have strengthened in Europe but weakened in the U.S., bolstering the link with euro-dollar.
As Bloomberg says, crude’s correlation with the euro’s so-called five-year, five-year forward inflation rate has risen to 0.2, the most since October 2012, while the equivalent figure for the U.S. is virtually zero.
This witnesses that the Fed officials are free to keep preparing to lift borrowing costs later in 2015. Meanwhile, ECB officials will keep their benchmark rate unchanged at a record-low 0.05 percent when they meet on Wednesday, Bloomberg says.

Planet X Update For 1/15/2014

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  Jan 16, 2014

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Today we have a new image from a reader that we will be analyzing, this image has been layered:

At the bottom left of the image we can see the object in question, and the next image shows the inverted color of this object:

Here we can see something at the bottom left of this image, we will let readers determine what this object could be. The only way to know for sure something is coming is to start recording and capturing images, and if you find something you would like to share email us at contact@earthshiftx.com, we are working to get down to the truth about planet x, and so far there have been some interesting images shared with us.

A good question was asked by an amateur astronomer on the subject of planet x, and that question was where is planet x? Obviously something is being caught on cameras, but to say that planet x is right below the sun can’t work because earth makes it’s yearly orbit around the sun.

Could planet x/ hercolubus be coming from a farther distance out, such as shown in Gill broussards estimate orbitals of planet x:

Researcher Gill Broussard  has based his estimates of planet 7x in line with biblical references in order to provide estimates of the location of planet 7x. Keep in mind these are estimates and they are not set in stone.

Following Carlos Ferrada’s estimates planet x/ herculobus could increase its speed as it makes it’s way in, but he never gave an exact date for when everything could start taking place. Carlos has credibility due to his stunning accuracy of earthquakes before they took place:

Becoming an amateur astronomer helps on these types of topics, but it is clear that something is causing the earth changes, increase in fireball reports, 24 hour magnetic field compression and a host of other strange events.

A level of doubt can be healthy to any research project, but so far, the moon out of position is a fact, we have checked moon position with professional astronomical software and some nights it is not even visible in the location we have seen it on the previous night.

Here are the two astronomical software’s that we use to see the abnormal moon positions, first hand:

http://www.starrynighteducation.com/skychart

http://www.stellarium.org

Let’s Go over a few of today’s earth changes: 

Earthquakes – A moderate 4.4 earthquake struck in Fontana California and residents living in the area reported the earthquake as moderate. A swarm of earthquakes took place in Western Turkey today, with one of the largest tremors measuring 2.8 in magnitude.

A 5.0 earthquake struck in the Hindu Kush Region in Afghanistan, 4.8 in the Mid Indian Ridge, 4.5 in the Kuril Islands, 4.4 earthquake took place in Java Indonesia and a 5.4 in San Juan Argentina. A 4.7 took place in the sea of Okhotsk, and a 4.4 in Jujuy argentina.

OPEC’s Struggle With Falling Crude-Oil Prices

 By Pat Minczeski and Sarah Kent Published May 28, 2015

By Pat Minczeski and Sarah Kent

Published May 28, 2015

OPEC accounts for a third of the world’s oil.

Production in 2014; Includes natural-gas liquids and condensates

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But a surge in U.S. shale-oil output is challenging its dominance.

Percentage change since the first quarter of 2010 in crude-oil production

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Change since the first quarter of 2010 in crude-oil production, in millions of barrels

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So OPEC has departed from its historic role as swing producer to defend its market share…

How swings in OPEC production have aligned with changes in the direction of Brent crude-oil futures prices

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…and OPEC has ramped up output in recent months.

OPEC increased production in March and April, while U.S. production rose at a slower rate; percentage change in crude production since April 2014

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While OPEC’s rivals are cutting investment in response to lower prices.

Global oil and natural gas upstream development capital expenditure, actual and forecast (2015,2016)

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But analysts are split as to whether this marks a victory for OPEC that could pave the way for a rebound in prices.

Where investment banks currently (May 2015) see the price per barrel of Brent crude-oil futures heading

Sources: International Energy Agency (OPEC and non-OPEC production, charts 1–4); IEA via Thomson Reuters (production, chart 6); Thomson Reuters (Brent prices); Rystad Energy (capital expenditure); the companies (price forecasts)