Euro news update 30th Nov

European stock markets opened lower on Wednesday, with an overnight downgrade of 37 global banks, including major European and U.S. banks, by Standard & Poor's. Investors also eyed the euro-zone finance ministers meeting in Brussels amid worries that Europe is at the limit of what it can do to fight the debt crisis

Nifty out look for Medium term 23rd Nov 2011

Nifty: Support 4400 – 4585 - 4660 Pivot 4777 Resistance 4850 - 4965 - 5160

Nifty: The head-and-shoulders pattern is one of the most popular and reliable chart patterns in technical analysis. And as one might imagine from the name, the pattern looks like a head with two shoulders. Head and shoulders is a reversal pattern that, when formed, signals the security is likely to move against the previous trend. There are two versions of the head-and-shoulders pattern. The head-and-shoulders top is a signal that a security's price is set to fall, once the pattern is complete, and is usually formed at the peak of an upward trend. The second version, the head-and-shoulders bottom (also known as inverse head and shoulders), signals that a security's price is set to rise and usually forms during a downward trend. Looking at the chart of Nifty it has started its rally from 2525 and after testing the higher level of 5300 short correction was seen forming the left shoulder and tested the support of 4700 level. There after the rise which was seen crossed the higher level of 5300 and move further upside where 6330 were tested. There after reversal for the higher level again it has taken support at 4730 level and formed a neck line where shot bounce which was expected has been seen and tested the higher level of 5400 level. Further we are looking the formation of the Right Shoulder where short term top is expected to be posted and will move to test the Neck Line which comes at 4730 level and once this support of 4730 and sustain trading below 4700 will confirm the down trend where its next down side target will be the previous bottom of 2600 around. If we look at the Fibonacci Expansion of point a-b from point c which comes to 3700 which is 161.8% and 2660 comes to 261.8% level will be the immediate target where it may get halt for some time before the next round of selling which may be seen after short bounce. We are on the over view where the lower side bottom may be seen at 2600 with + - of 200 points. Stochastic are trading in mid zone and is moving towards the lower level and is expected to sustain in oversold zone where further fall in price may be expected.

Nifty Looking to test Double Bottom at 2600 level

Nifty Looking to test Double Bottom at 2600 level ....

If we look nifty from the lower level of 1000 level in 2003 if has perfectly formed Elliot wave Pattern and tested the higher levle of 6300 and after the same corrective patter a-b-c has tested the lower level of 2600 where spike low was seen till 2200 which was 23.6% retacement of the full rise from 1000 to 6300 .... After the fall sharp rise was seen till 6300 making double top formation and reverted,, trading near the support level of 4700 and further trading below 4700 will move and test the level of 3400 and 2600 once again making double bottom formation.... This will also make a long term Bull Flag pattern where this fall which will test 2600 will be D wave completion and again will move upside in form of wave E.. Pole of the Flag will be frm 1000 to 6300 which is 5300 points and crossover above 6300 will bring to 11600 in long run,, :: Rajeev Darji (9820987859) says VALUE BUYING IS ONLY ADVISE AROUND THE LOWER LEVEL OF 2600 AROUND + - 200 POINTS WHERE LONG RUN WILL GIVE GOOD RETURN. :

NW18: MCX gold down 1%, silver falls 1.5% tracking COMEX; rupee supports NewsWire18, Thursday, Nov 17

NW18: MCX gold down 1%, silver falls 1.5% tracking COMEX; rupee supports
NewsWire18, Thursday, Nov 17
.
By Samantha Menacherry
MUMBAI - Gold futures were trading nearly 1% lower on the MCX tracking
fall in benchmark COMEX contracts, where lower-than-expected US inflation data
Wednesday dampened market sentiment as the metal is perceived to be an
inflation hedge.
The downtrend in domestic futures was limited as the rupee depreciated
against the dollar today. The rupee ended at 50.90 per dollar compared with
50.74 Wednesday. A weak rupee makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive to
import.
At 1820 IST, December gold contract on MCX was at 28,783 rupees per 10 gm,
down 213 rupees from previous close, while the December contract on COMEX was
down $26.30 at $1,748.00 an ounce.
Gold has once again been caught in a broad-based commodity sell-off
today that was triggered due to heightened concerns over Eurozone after
Spanish bond yields surged, and as Fitch Rating agency warned that US banks
could face severe risks from the Eurozone debt crisis, analysts said.
"In the near-term, the metal may extend its fall to $1,700-$1,710 but the
impact of the sell-off may be reduced in the domestic markets due to the
ongoing depreciation in the rupee," said Rajeev Darji, senior research
analyst at X-Trade Brokers (Europe).
Good physical demand in the local markets at lower level may also provide
some support to the metal, analysts said.
Gold prices are likely to show some improvement in physical demand in
Oct-Dec due to the onset of the wedding season, Ajay Mitra, managing
director, India and West Asia, World Gold Council told reporters after the
release of the Gold Demand Trends report here today.
According to the report, the total gold demand in India fell 23% on year
to 203.3 tn in Jul-Sep.
On Wednesday, gold holdings of SPDR GoldTrust, the largest gold-backed
exchange traded fund, gained 9 tn to 1,277 tn, according to data on its
website.
Silver futures on MCX were trading 1.5% lower today mirroring COMEX
contracts, where weakness in gold and base metals pulled down prices.
"Silver had been trading in the range of $33.5-$35.0 (an ounce), but the
metal has now broken the support level of $33.5 and may extend the downtrend
to $30-$31 in the near term," Darji said.
Silver holdings of iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver
exchange-traded fund, were unchanged from previous session at 9,784 tn
Wednesday, according to data on its website.
December silver contract on MCX was at 56,267 rupees a kg, down 890 rupees.
The same-month contract on COMEX was down 75.20 cents at $33.07 an ounce.
.
OUTLOOK
Gold futures on COMEX may continue to trade lower today and market will
eye key US economic data such as initial jobless claims and new residential
construction, analysts said.
December gold contract on COMEX may face resistance at $1,765 an ounce,
while support is seen at $1,730.
MCX December gold contract may face resistance at 28,960 rupees, while
support is seen at 28,500 rupees. The December silver contract on MCX is likely
to trade in the range of 55,500-57,300 rupees. End
.
US$1 = 50.90 rupees
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
.
Edited by Arshad Hussain
.
NewsWire18 Tel +91 (22) 6637-8700
Send comments to feedback@newswire18.com
.

short term out look on market for 4 quarters

Nifty is nearing the support level of 4700 and if trading is seen below 4700 its expected to test 4200 soon and may also move to test 3800 level,, looking at Rupee which is expected to move towards 55 to 56$ in near term, i am looking nifty to test 2800 to 2500 level which will be double bottom in market where we have already seen double top at 6400 area.. there is the fundamental no good new expected in neat 3 to 4 quarters and this will be the negative move to continue ... worst condition is going to come in East where Euro zone will collapse and the tension between the Arabs and English will tensed up with the rise in Petrol price which will move and trade towards 150$ to 180$ soon. till the time no other alternative source of energy is pushed for heavy demand time will decide the further direction.

Nifty out look for short term 21st Nov 2011

Nifty: Nifty this was in down trend Fridays opening was seen at 4895 level and attested the lower level of 4845 where as buying was seen at lower level where closing was seen at days high at 4221 level. Today as the Asian market is trading flat to negative where Nifty is expected to open below 4880 and will move to test immediate support of 4850 and if sustain trading below 4850 will bring to 4770 – 4720 level in near term. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 4700 will open the door for 4500 in near term, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 5000 and till the time resistance is holding we expect it to continue the down trend in market and can wait for lower expected target of 4500 in medium term. Stochastic which were in down trend just below 20% zone where further down side move expected in near to medium term time frame.

.

USD/INR: Rupee which is in uptrend is facing short resistance at 51.50 per$ and yesterday after testing higher level of 51.50 closing was seen at 51.47 where days low was posted at 51.1 per$. Today’s after gap up opening near 51.51 per$ crossing the resistance at 51.5 per$ and will be in uptrend move where on lower side it’s not expected to trade below 51.3 per$ on closing basis and any dip will be buying opportunity where on higher side if sustain trading above 51 will spark the higher target of 51.75 per$ to 51.95 per$ immediately. Dollar index is trading just above 78 level at 78.25 and is taking support at 77.8 and is expected to continue the uptrend where on higher side 78.5 and 79 can be the expected target. Rupee is expected to trade in range of 51.5 per$ to 51.9$ for the day with buying at dips advise. Stochastic are trading just entered in overbought zone with positive intersection where some rise in price is expected.

Natural Gas Outlook for 2012 – 13

report publish on theenergybussiness.in

http://energybusiness.in/natural-gas-outlook-2012-13/

Nifty & Rupee Overview for 16th Oct 2011

Nifty: Nifty which was in down trend yesterday opening was seen flat around 5137 and after short bounce before European market open tested level of 5172 but in last few hrs. Sharp selling was seen and closing was seen around 5061 at days low which was just below 50 DMA of 5071 level. Today as the Asian market is trading flat and negative where Nifty is expected to open below 5050 and will move to test immediate support of 5000 where as on higher side resistance can be seen at 5130 level and till the time this resistance is holding short correction is expected. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 5050 will bring to 5010 to 5000 level in near term. Rupee is also trading at near term high of 51 per$ which is expected to test 54 with stronger Dollar bring further pressure on Nifty with outflow from FII can be expected. We maintain bearish view where 5000 is the next target and below 5000 can also test 4700 level in medium term. Stochastic which were in down trend just below 20% zone where further down side move expected in near to medium term time frame.

USD/INR: Rupee which is in uptrend yesterday opened at 50.54 level and resume its uptrend where has given breakout above resistance level of 50.65 per$ and after testing ther higher level of 50.89 closing was just near the higher level at 50.82 per$. Today’s after gap up opening near 50.98 per$ is expected to take resistance at 51 per$ and will be in the range bound move where on lower side its not expected to trade below 50.65 per$ on closing basis and any dip will be buying opportunity where on higher side if sustain trading above 52 will spark the higher target of 51.4 per$ to 51.8 per$ immediately. Dollar index is trading just above 78 level at 78.25 and is taking support at 77.8 and is expected to continue the uptrend where on higher side 78.5 and 79 can be the expected target. Rupee is expected to trade in range of 50.65 per$ to 50.95per$ for the day with buying at dips advise. Stochastic are trading just entered in overbought zone with positive intersection where some rise in price is expected.

Rangarajan favours decontrolling diesel prices

think if this is true what will happen..........

Italian Debt Still Troubling Market

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) sentiment reversed again last night with Italian bond yields once again heading towards 7% and negative headlines out of Europe prompting risk off trade. Also dampening sentiment is a growing trade spat between the US and China as the two superpowers clash over the strength of the Chinese Yuan. In US stocks, DJIA +259 points closing at 12153, S&P +24 points closing at 1263 and NASDAQ +53 points closing at 2678. Looking ahead, October Retail Sales forecast at 0.3% vs. 1.1% previously.

The Euro (EUR) The came under heavy selling pressure after opening on a strong footing after news on the weekend of a new Italian Government. When yields did not fall at the start of Europe the market sold the Euro aggressively and a solution to the crisis does not seem clear. Support was found under 1.3600 but sentiment is negative. Looking ahead, Q3 GDP forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.2%..

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold failed to test $1800 instead fell back on USD strength finding support at $1775. Oil was similar to Gold failing to test its key level instead falling back on rising risk aversion in global markets.

RUPEE Bull Flag Pattern Breakout 3 months view

Rupee: Support 47.40 – 49 – 50 Pivot 50.60 Resistance 51.60 – 52.20 – 53.80

Rupee: A Flag (Bullish) follows a steep or nearly vertical rise in price, and consists of two parallel trend lines that form a rectangular flag shape. The Flag can be horizontal (as though the wind is blowing it), however it often has a slight downtrend. The vertical uptrend, that precedes a Flag, may occur because of buyers' reactions to a favorable company earnings announcement, or a new product launch. The sharp price increase is sometimes referred to as the "flagpole" or "mast". Flags are very similar to Pennants. However, with a Flag, the price trend lines tend to run parallel, whereas with a Pennant, the price trend lines tend to converge. A bullish signal occurs when the price rebounds beyond the upper trend line of the Flag formation, and continues the original upward price movement. This is considered a pattern confirmation.

Looking at the chart of Rupee has started its rally from 44.80Per$ and after testing the higher level of 50.5 per$ it has been in the consolidation phase where on lower side it was taking support at 48.98 and 48.86 per$ just below 49 per$ and reversal in prices were seen from lower level. On higher side it was facing resistance at 50.5 per$ to 50.6 per$ and selling was seen from higher level. Recently it’s showing sign of give positive Breakout above 50.65 per$ indicating breakout of the Bull Flag pattern. Pole of the Flag started from 44.8 per$ to 50.5 per$ where the difference comes to 5.7 where if we look at breakout above 50.65 per$ expected target comes to 56.35 per$ in medium term. On the way up we might look at some resistance at level of 52 per$ and above 52 small resistance can also bee seen at 53.5 per$ and 55 per$ where some intervention can be expected from RBI side which might halt the Rupee for short term.

RAJEEV DARJI

9820987859

Daily Nifty & Rupee Outlook for 15th Nov 2011

Nifty: Nifty yesterday which opened gap up above 100 DMA at 5237 and after opening correction started where it traded below 5200 and tested the lower level of 5146 and closing was also seen at days low? Today as the Asian market is trading flat and negative where Nifty is expected to take support at falling trend line of 5125 level. Short bounce can be expected which can be used as a selling opportunity where near term resistance is seen at 5215 level and till the time this resistance hold selling is advise around 5160 – 5180 level. in the last trading session after the gap down opening. On lower side if sustain trading is seen below 5120 will bring to 5070 to 5000 level in near term. Immediate resistance is seen at 5200 and its expected to hold the resistance level and we maintain bearish view where 5000 is the next target and below 5000 can also test 4700 level in medium term. Stochastic which were in down trend just below 20% zone has given negative intersection and if the resistance is holding may again turn negative.

USD/INR: Rupee in the previous session which open at 50.10 per$ hold lower level support of 50 per$ and sharp reversal in price were seen and traded above 50.25 and tested days high of 50.57 per$ and closing was also seen near the higher level at 50.48 per$. Today’s after gap up opening near 50.54 per$ slight if sustain trading above 50.6 per$ is seen will give a fresh breakout in market where uptrend will continue and will move to test 50.9 per$ immediately. Rupee will give a Bull Flag Pattern Breakout if todays closing is seen above 50.65 per$ where in near term 52 per$ to 55 per$ will be the target. Dollar index is trading just above 77.5 level at 77.58 and is taking support at 77 and if some reversal in price is expected where on higher side 77.8 and 78.4 can be retested. Rupee is expected to trade in range of 50.55 per$ to 50.95per$ for the day with buying at dips advise. Stochastic are trading just below overbought zone with positive intersection where some rise in price is expected.

Copper outlook for Short term 11th Nov 2011

Copper: Support 6350 – 6950 – 7250 Pivot 7560 Resistance 7850 – 8150 – 8750

Copper: The head-and-shoulders pattern is one of the most popular and reliable chart patterns in technical analysis. And as one might imagine from the name, the pattern looks like a head with two shoulders. Head and shoulders is a reversal pattern that, when formed, signals the security is likely to move against the previous trend. There are two versions of the head-and-shoulders pattern. The head-and-shoulders top is a signal that a security's price is set to fall, once the pattern is complete, and is usually formed at the peak of an upward trend. The second version, the head-and-shoulders bottom (also known as inverse head and shoulders), signals that a security's price is set to rise and usually forms during a downward trend.

Looking at the chart of Copper it has started its rally from 2800 and after testing the higher level of 7950 short correction was seen forming the left shoulder and tested the support of 6000 level. There after the rise which was seen crossed the higher level of 7950 and move further upside where 10150 were tested. There after reversal for the higher level again it has taken support at 6610 level and formed a neck line where shot bounce which was expected has been seen and tested the higher level of 8150 level. Further we are looking the formation of the Right Shoulder where short term top is expected to be posted and will move to test the Neck Line which comes at 6650 level and once this support of 6650 and sustain trading below 6600 will confirm the down trend where its next down side target will be the previous bottom of 2800 around. If we look at the Fibonacci Expansion of point a-b from point c which comes to 5400 which is 100% and 4850 comes to 121% level will be the immediate target where it may get halt for some time before the next round of selling which may be seen after short bounce. We are on the over view where the lower side bottom may be seen at 4850 level and after testing the same further trend will be clear rather it will move to test 2800 or price may revert from the lower level of 5400 or 4850 level around.

Prepared By: Rajeev R. Darji

Sr. Research Specialist

XTB India

EURUSD outlook for Short term 9th Nov 2011

EURO: Support 1.3200 – 1.3450 – 1.3550 Pivot 1.3700 Resistance 1.3800 – 1.3950 – 1.4200

EURO: A Pennant (Bearish) is considered a bearish signal, indicating that the current downtrend may continue. A Pennant (Bearish) follows a steep or nearly vertical fall in price, and consists of two converging trend lines that form a narrow, tapering flag shape. The Pennant shape generally appears as a horizontal shape, rather than one with a downtrend or uptrend. Apart from its shape, the Pennant is similar in all respects to the Flag. The Pennant is also similar to the Symmetrical Triangle or Wedge continuation patterns however; the Pennant is typically shorter in duration and flies horizontally.

Looking at the chart Euro after the fall from the higher level of 1.4250 has tested the level of 1.3600 and after the fall has been in the consolidation phase and was showing higher bottom formation and was facing good resistance at 1.3850 level where selling was seen at higher level. Closing basis was not above to holding the level above 1.3800 and selling pressure was seen at higher level. . On lower side support was seen at 1.3700 which was the rising trend ling and today it has convincingly broken the same and is expect to move further down side. The highest of the Pole is 650 pips and crossover below 1.3700 brings the lower target of 1.3200 to 1.3100 levels. This is near the previous bottom what we have seen around September 2011

POSITIONAL CALL GOLD / EURUSD / CRUDE

POSITIONAL CALL :::: Rajeev: Gold Comex Sell @ 1765 TGT 1720 1670 1620 Stop Loss 1800 CMP 1765 11/7/2011 15:56

POSITIONAL CALL ::: Rajeev: EURUSD Sell @ 1.3700 TGT 1.3550 1.3400 1.3200 Stop Loss 1.377 CMP 1.3700 11/7/2011 15:55

POSITIONAL CALL ::: Rajeev: Brent Crude Sell @ 111.6 TGT 110 108 105 Stop Loss 113 CMP 111.6 11/7/2011 15:58

Daily Nifty & Rupee Outlook for 3rd Nov 2011

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the gap down opening at 5261 failed to cross the lower support level of 5250 and reverted from lower level testing higher level of 5332 level where days high was posted and closing was seen at days low around 5254 level. Today as the Asian market are trading negative market are likely to open negative and immediate support is seen at 5250 and further trading below 5250 will bring to 5180 and 5150 in intraday, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 5300 and crossover above the same will bring back to 5350 level. Nifty if fails to cross the higher resistance level of 5350 will bring back to lower support of 5250 and further below 5250 closing will come to 5000 as next support in coming days, where as further crossover above 5350 will confirm the uptrend to test 5500 level soon. Stochastic has just reverted from overbought zone and is showing negative intersection where is trading below 80% zone will bring it further down side where selling pressure in prices is expected.

USD/INR: Rupee yesterday just traded below the immediate support of 49.1 and reverted from the lower level and tested the days high at 49.42 where at the end of the session some profit booking was seen and closing was seen at 49.18 level. Today’s after gap down opening near 49.17 failed to trade below 49.1 and is currently trading at 49.4 where is nearing the resistance of 49.5 and further upside is expected to test the level of 49.7 – 49.9 immediately in few days. If sustain trading is seen above 49.42 will bring to 49.6 to 49.95 $, further above 50 per$ will bring to 52 to 53per$ in near to medium term which is expected target till the time 49$ holds on closing basis. I expect it to move upside beyond 50 in near to medium term for higher target. Dollar index which traded above 77 and was holding the support level of 76.8 and is trading at 77.3 where some range trading is expected where 77 is support and 77.7 is the resistance level. Rupee is expected to trade in range of 49.2per$ to 49.7per$ for the day with buying at dips advise. Stochastic has just reverted from the oversold zone and is trading at 50% zone indicating some upside way move to continue.

Nifty & Rupee Overview for 1st Nov 2011

Nifty: Nifty yesterday after the gap down opening failed to cross the higher resistance level of 5400 and reverted from 5375 level where low of the day was posted at 5332 and closing was also seen at day’s low. Today as the Asian market are trading negative market are likely to open negative and immediate support is seen at 5300 and further trading below 5300 will bring to 5250 in intraday, whereas on higher side resistance is seen at 5350 and crossover above the same will bring back to 5400 level. Nifty if fails to cross the higher resistance level of 5400 will bring back to lower support of 5320 and further below 5300 closing will come to 5150 as next support, where as further crossover above 5400 will confirm the uptrend to test 5500 level soon. Stochastic has just entered in overbought zone and is showing sign of negative intersection where only trading below 80% zone will bring it further down side where selling pressure in prices can be seen.

USD/INR: Rupee is taking support at 48.5 per$ to 48.6per$ area and bounce is seen from the lower level where on higher side immediate resistance is seen at 49.1 per$. Today the opening at 48.65 per$ but fails to cross the lower support of 48.5 per$ level. On higher side if sustain trading is seen above 49 will bring to 49.4 to 49.8 $, further above 50 per$ will bring to 52 to 53.5per$ in near to medium term which is expected target till the time 48.5$ holds on closing basis. I expect it to move upside beyond 50 in near to medium term for higher target. Dollar index which traded above 76 and was holding the support level of 76 and is trading at 76.55 where some range trading is expected where 76.4 is support and 77.4 is the resistance level. Rupee is expected to trade in range of 48.7per$ to 49.3per$ for the day. Stochastic has just reverted from the oversold zone and is flat near 15% zone indicating some side way move to continue.