Brent Crude outlook for Short term 18th Oct 2011

Brent Crude: Support 104.4 – 107.05 – 108.5

Pivot 111.2 Resistance 112.6 – 115.3 – 116.8

Brent Crude: Looking at the chart Brent Crude is trading ion consolidation move where the trend is side way to down side, where it’s forming Lower Top and Lower Bottom in long term chart looking from March 2011 onwards. Recently it has just tested the higher resistance level of 114$ and is reverting from 113.83$ which is the falling trend line and is also trading below 100 DMA of 110.3$ indicating short term top is place and is expected to test the lower support of 99$ and further on lower side trend line can be tested at 95$ in near to medium term. Till the time its holding 114$ on closing basis we maintain bearish view on Brent Crude where lower target can be expected. On the way down side it’s expected to take some minor support of 107 – 103 where as below 99 to 95 will be the support range where some buying may emerge. Stochastic which are trading in overbought zone has given negative intersection and is trading below 80% zone will bring it to lower level with fall in price what we are expecting it to test the level of 99 in near term.

EURUSD outlook for Short term 18th Oct 2011

EURO: Support 1.3490 – 1.3660 – 1.3760

Pivot 1.3830 Resistance 1.3930 – 1.4005 – 1.4175

Euro: Looking at the chart Euro is in formation of Inverted Head & Shoulder Pattern where it’s just reverted from the previous resistance level of 1.3940 which it tested in mid June and sharp selloff was seen thereafter and tested the level of 1.3145 which was the formation of Head. Left shoulder started from 1.4550 and after testing the bottom of 1.3500 reverted and tested 1.3940 from where neck line started. Sharp reversal in price was seen after testing 1.3145 levels and it’s near to the neck line area of 1.3913 days high. If the closing is seen well below the days high of 1.3913 level will confirm the pattern formation where on immediate basis it may move to test the level of 1.3500 – 1.3550 area once. Further we look to see some reversal in price from 1.3500 area and again move and test the neck line and further breakout above the neck line above 1.3900 will give sharp rise in price where 1.4400 – 1.4550 can be the upside target. We need to keep close watch on EURUSD giving closing below 1.3450 on weekly basis which will disqualify the pattern formation where next support may be at 1.3150 can be tested, may forming Double bottom formation. Stochastic which are trading in overbought zone has given negative intersection and if trading is seen below 80% zone will bring it to lower level with fall in price what we are expecting it to test the level of 1.3500 in near term.

Nifty short term out look 18th Oct 2011 (3 Months)

Nifty: Support 4960 – 4811 – 4585 Pivot 5040 Resistance 5187 – 5265 – 5492

Nifty: Looking at the chart Nifty is in formation of Bear Flag Pattern where it’s just reverted from the previous resistance level of 5156 and is trading at 5050 level. If we look at the Pole which started from the high of 5707 and tested the level of 4716 which was almost 1000 Points move, and there after it gave short bounce retracing just near to 50% of the fall where it failed to cross 5170 resistance level on closing basis. Recent rise which we have seen from 4723 point C to point D at 5156 indicate short term top is placed and is expected to test the level of lower support trend line at 4730 in near term. Further trading below 4730 – 4700 on closing basis will confirm the down trend where lower level gets open up. If we calculate the down side target after the break down taking 50 % of the Pole which comes to 500 points which will test 4800 level on lower side and 100 % fall which comes to 3700 on lower side. To be optimistic I am look Nifty to test 4200 as strong support and some consolidation move in lower band of 4200 to 4500 for few days and there after further trading below 4200 on weekly closing will bring to 4000 and 3700 in medium term. Stochastic which are trading in overbought zone has given negative intersection and is trading below 80% zone will bring it to lower level with fall in price what we are expecting it to test the level of 4200 in near term.