Daily Forex Report for 12th Feb 2013

EURUSD: Support 1.3326 – 1.3364                              Pivot: 1.3396

                   Resistance: 1.3434 – 1.3466

The euro was almost unchanged near two-week lows against the dollar on Monday as concerns over political uncertainty in the euro zone weighed and investors watched a meeting of euro zone finance ministers. EUR/USD hit 1.3412 during U.S. morning trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3374, edging up 0.05%. The pair was likely to find support at 1.3352, Friday’s low and a two-week low and resistance at 1.3478, the high of January 25. Earlier Monday, official data showed that French industrial production came in slightly better than expected, falling 0.1% in December from November compared to expectations for a 0.2% drop. Stochastic are trading below 20% oversold zone where support is seen at 1.3350 and trading below some more selling is expected.

GBPUSD: Support: 1.5540 – 1.5598                             Pivot: 1.5704

                    Resistance: 1.5761 – 1.5867

The pound remained lower against the U.S. dollar on Monday, as sustained concerns over the outlook for growth in the U.K. continued to weigh on demand for sterling.  GBP/USD hit 1.5703 during U.S. morning trade, the pair's lowest since February 7; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5713, shedding 0.54%.  Cable was likely to find support at 1.5646, the low of February 7 and resistance at 1.5810, the session high.  Last week the BoE warned that the economic recovery would be “slow and sustained” and “likely to remain muted in the near term” after it announced a decision to leave interest rates on hold at 0.5% and keep its easing program unchanged. Stochastic has given negative intersection and if sustain trading is seen below 1.5630 free fall is expected to test 1.5400. 

AUDUSD: Support: 1.0203 – 1.0231                            Pivot: 1.0278

                     Resistance: 1.0306 – 1.0353

The U.S. dollar traded mostly lower against its major rivals in what is looking like another quiet Asian session on Tuesday. Markets in Hong Kong, Shanghai and others across the region remain closed for Chinese New Year festivities. AUD/USD climbed 0.10% to 1.0266 even after reports that traders are increasing bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia will pare rates later this year. Some traders are betting on nearly 50 more basis points being shaved from RBA’s key overnight rate, currently 3%. Even a 25 basis point reduction to 2.75% would take Australian interest rates to a record low. 

Stochastic are trading just above oversold zone with negative intersection and if trading is seen below 1.0250 can move to test 1.0160 level on lower side.

EURUSD Forming a Bat Pattern Formation

From the above chart EURUSD is showing the BAT Pattern which is rare formation and is near to similar to the Head and shoulder pattern, just a difference is the Head is not above the shoulder and is below the both the shoulder which gives the BAT pattern outlook on the chart. yesterday after the sharp correction which we have seen from 1.2940 and tested the lower level of 1.2821 testing the support of 1.2820 and closing was near the Neck Line support as well. It is expected to have a gap down opening on Monday which will be below 1.2800 and will move further towards the expected support of 1.2610 and 1.2480 will be the target in near term. Only Closing above 1.2890 will hamper the bearish outlook in market. Trading Call : Sell EURUSD @ 1.2800 Stop Loss @ 1.2900 Target @ 1.2610 - 1.2480 in near term. Rajeev Darji +91-9820987859

Trading Hour Schedule for US Public Holiday in May 28th 2012

Trading Hour Schedule for US Public Holiday in May 2012 Instrument Monday 28th May FX regular hours EQs & ETFs Closed Index CFDs Europe 50 02:00 - 11:30 France 40 02:00 - 11:30 Germany 30 02:00 - 11:30 UK FTS 100 02:00 - 11:30 US SP 500 02:00 - 11:30 US NASQ 100 02:00 - 11:30 US DJ 30 02:00 - 11:30 Commodity Nat gas Closed Gold 18:00 Sun - 13:00 Mon Silver 18:00 Sun - 13:00 Mon US Crude Closed *All times in EDT

Daily Forex and Commodity Report for 23rd May 2012

EURUSD: Support 1.2550 – 1.2605 Pivot: 1.2710 Resistance: 1.2765 – 1.5870 Euro: The euro was down against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday after former Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos admitted that the country has crafted a roadmap to exit the eurozone although the possibility of such a risk isn't likely. In Greece, the country's financial stability fund approved a EUR18 billion capital injection for the country's four top banks, however, former Prime Minister Lucas Papademos reportedly told Dow Jones newswires the possibility of a Greek exit from the eurozone was a real possibility. The pair was likely to find support at 1.2641, Friday’s low and a four-month low and resistance at 1.2868, the high of May 15. This bounce is just a short correction in profit booking side where some range will continue to trade. Stochastic has drifted below 50% zone & down side rally will continue.

GBPUSD: Support 1.5670 – 1.5720 Pivot: 1.5780 Resistance: 1.5825 – 1.5890 Pound: The pound trimmed losses against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, pulling away from a two-day low after positive U.S. new home sales data, but a previous U.K. inflation report and uncertainty ahead of a key European summit continued to weigh. As the expected support is broken below 1.6000 and trading below the same on closing basis will open the door for 1.5880 and the support if 1.5820 is also broken and next target is expected at 1.5620 level. – 1.5550 levels where 1.5900 will be resistance level. Stochastic has given negative intersection just drifting below 20 % zone and if failed to cross resistance of 1.5900 reversals in price may be expected.

AUDUSD: Support 0.9650 – 1.9710 Pivot: 0.9820 Resistance: 0.9880 – 0.9995 The dollar rose against major world currencies in Asian trading on Wednesday, after former Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said Greece can't rule out exiting the eurozone, which sparked a flight to the safety of the greenback. The news sparked demand for the greenback amid a global risk-off trading session. As per the pattern breakdown below 1.0240 it has tested the level of 0.9860 some range bounce move is expected trading below the same will bring to 0.9660 level. Stochastic are still trading below 30% zone and has again given negative intersection where fall in price is expected to test the lower level of 0.9660 – 0.9400 where selling at rise is advisable.

Gold: Support: 1541 – 1554 Pivot: 1575 Resistance: 1587 – 1607 Gold prices dropped in Asian trading on Wednesday after investors rushed to the dollar on comments from former Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos the country cannot rule out the possibility that it could leave the eurozone. In Greece, the country's financial stability fund approved a EUR18 billion capital injection for the country's four top banks, Gold futures were likely to test support at USD1,526.95 a troy ounce, the low on May 16, and resistance at USD1,603.35, the high from May 9. If sustain trading is seen above 1605 it will move to test 1620 to 1355$ and will enter in range bound. Sustain trading below 1550 will bring to 1530 to 1515$ in near term. Stochastic are trading negative where downside movement is expected to continue.

Silver: Support: 27.4 – 27.74 Pivot: 28.25 Resistance: 28.58 – 29.09 Silver which reverted from the level of 31.42 where resistance was respected at 31.5$ and is trading below the support of 28.5$ and sustain trading below 27$ will continue the down trend where will continue in pattern breakdown moving to test 25$ level. Sustain trading below 27$ recent low will continue for 25 –23$ immediately where further 21$ and 18$ will be the medium term target. As it’s a rule after the breakdown short recovery can be seen from 25$ and retest the level of 28 and then continue the down trend for lower level. From current level we will continue the bearish view if trading is seen below 27$ will bring to 26.5– 25 immediately. Stochastic are trading in just traded with negative intersection where trading below 27.5$ has continue downtrend.

Crude: Support: 89.9 – 90.7 Pivot: 92.01 Resistance: 92.8 - 24 Crude: Crude oil futures fell in Asian trading on Wednesday on talk Iran is increasingly willing to open its doors to nuclear inspectors, which could ease sanctions on the country and pave the way to normal oil exports. Iran cut oil exports to portions of Europe to counter economic sanctions slapped on the country, and a European Union-wide oil embargo still remains set to take effect in July. Crossover below 91$ will brings to 90.3 – 89$ levels and may go further down, where as failing to cross the same and trading above 95 will retest 99$ level. Stochastic are in mid zone with negative intersection where down fall is expected

India is on verge of collapse

From another blog Here is prediction about Indian Economy by one of the leading Indian Astrologers based in USA. Though this astrologer has failed many a times but some of his predictions have gone remarkably accurate. India is on verge of collapse Dear Member’s Since last eight months I have been concern about India. Today, again I decided to read detail Indian wave of nature/Astro cycle chart and too me they are giving most scary signal. In my recent book I clearly mentioned that India Market would underperform compare to world equity market. Investing in S&P and US stocks advised proven one of the best of 2012. Currently I am reading India’s Astro/Wave of nature cycles and prediction article will be ready within few days. Its’ looks like Indian economy can fall before Greece or Spain. I issue a warning to those who are holding investment in India, in Indian real-estate market, equity market, bonds and Rupee. All these assets can tumble over night. It can create havoc in world financial market. This is most scary story is developing in World Astro cycle, and India can take place center point and start taking world into big scary whole, I don’t know how world market will react to this so please give me few days before I complete my study and publish article in the next week’s weekly newsletter. I warn Indian investors to stay away for all investments class like, equity, Rupee, real-estate and metals as these all assets may collapse. Big corporate, banks or business houses may fail, most scary scenario can emerge. I will be watching next 48 hours very closely before I put everything on paper and release it. Last week on Wednesday we released alert recommending, staying away from all investments, like equity, oil and metals for the next five days. Tomorrow is fifth day and would like to see how next two days perform. Below here is alert. Thanks & God Bless, Mahendra Sharma

Things are not as bad as doomsdayers claim

Relax, things are not as bad as doomsdayers claim Doomdayers are having a field day given our current market conditions. Calls range from the collapse of the eurozone to a fall in China’s economy. India is receiving its fair share of dark predictions ranging from runaway inflation expectations, a sharp rise in interest rates and below-par growth. If the predictions actually come out right, three-fourths of the world’s population will be living in poverty for the next ten years. The small proportion of individuals that has managed to hoard wealth will be invested in US treasuries, which yield below 2 percent, and gold, which yields nothing. India’s poor run will stop sooner than later and it will be despite the government. Reuters But more likely than not, the doomsayers’ predictions will not come true and the world will get on with its life, albeit with a few hiccups. It is the market sentiment that is giving rise to gloom and doom predictions, and these predictions will disappear once markets get back to normal. One has to remember that the theme in the 2000-2008 period was the collapse of the US dollar, unfettered growth in BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations and an unstoppable rise in commodity prices. None of these bull market predictions have come true: the US dollar is gaining, commodity prices are falling and growth in BRIC nations has come off leading to negative returns in BRIC equities over the past four years. India is facing the worst market scenario since the 1990s. The Sensex and rupee are down over 15 percent from their peaks levels seen in late 2007, while ten-year benchmark bond yields are up by 350 basis points from their 2008 lows. GDP growth has come off from over 9 percent to below 7 percent, while inflation has trended towards double digits from levels of below 6 percent over the past four years. India was once seen as a country that could do nothing wrong; now, it is seen as a country that can do nothing right. Things will turn around for India India’s poor run will stop sooner than later and it will be despite the government. Take, for example, the IT sector. Infosys and Cognizant have guided for slower growth this year, but the fact is that their hiring plans are still robust with each of them planning to up the workforce by over 20 percent. The other majors of TCS, Wipro and HCL Tech are also having robust hiring plans. Why would IT majors hire if the outlook for business in the US and Europe are not good? The markets have punished policy makers enough for their follies. The fact that the government provided fiscal stimulus and the Reserve Bank of India provided monetary stimulus post the 2008 crisis, and their inability to roll back the stimulus quickly in the face of rising inflation is seen in the weak financial markets. The government and the RBI are now ultra-cautious in their approach to the growth-inflation trade off, and that makes for sounder policies that the ones that were made in the clamor for growth in the 2000s. The situation is similar to other sectors in the economy. Banks, especially the private sector banks have focused their attention of improving asset quality and the earnings growth rates of 30 percent and above for the biggies, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank, shows the effort. Smaller private-sector banks such as ING Vysya have also delivered 30 percent or higher earnings growth. Airlines are cutting costs and restructuring to become profitable. Consumer goods companies such as ITC and HUL are reaping the benefits of a ten-year competitiveness exercise and have shown earnings growth over 20 percent in the past year. Doomsdayers, put your money where your mouth is China has realised the folly of over-investment and directed lending after a property bubble and a stock market crash. China’s equity index is down 50 percent from its highs seen in 2007 and its growth has come off from double digit levels to 8 percent and thereabouts. China’s policies will now be attuned towards steady growth, driven less by exports and more by domestic consumption. The US is still holding on to its status as the global powerhouse despite its issues on debt. Dollar bashers have had to hold their tongues as the dollar and dollar-denominated debt are still seen as safe haven assets. Eurozone debt issues will persist, but will they lead to the collapse of the euro and the world? The questions each euro nation must ask itself is what will the consequence will be of leaving the euro? The consequence will be as bad as the ones faced by South American countries when their currencies were devalued, hyperinflation and economic collapse. Euro nations will strive to stay in the eurozone with help from Germany and the European Central Bank. Germany itself is seeing resurgence in its economy with unemployment at two-decade lows and consumer and business confidence holding strong in the face of many negatives. Investors should also realise doomsdayers will never be short on markets even if they are predicting a market collapse. The reason is that they themselves do not believe their predictions. A true forecaster will put his money where his mouth is and doomsdayers are not true forecasters or risk takers. Hence, it is better to ignore doomsayers and look beyond the present. Arjun Parthasarathy is editor of www.investorsareidiots.com, a web site for investors.

Trading Calls for the day with timing

Rajeev USDINR Buy @ 54.4100 tgt 54.5500 54.7000 54.9000 stop @ 54.2500 CMP 54.4100 10:03:54 AM Rajeev EURUSD Sell @ 1.2740 tgt 1.2720 1.2700 1.2680 stop @ 1.2755 CMP 1.2740 10:03:54 AM Rajeev Gold Sell @ 1546 tgt 1541 1536 1530 stop @ 1551 CMP 1546 10:03:54 AM Rajeev AUDUSD Sell @ 0.9940 tgt 0.9910 0.9880 stop @ 0.9960 CMP 0.9940 10:03:54 AM Rajeev NZDUSD Sell @ 0.7660 tgt 0.7630 0.7605 stop @ 0.7680 CMP 0.7660 10:03:54 AM USDINR sport is trading above 54.3 has already broken the resistance of 54 level on closing basis indicates upternd to continue and will test 55 - 56 - 57 on higher side in near term 10:06:16 AM