Reliance A-B-C Pattern formation Expected target of 704 - 641

Reliance is forming A-B-C pattern formation and has retraced by 76.4% of the fall and is showing a confermation of reversal and on lower side expected target comes to 704 which is 121% of A-B from point C and further trading below 700 will bring to 641 which is 161.8% expansion of  A-B form C.

USDINR Elliot wave Pattern Target of 73.2 - 79.5

USDINR (Rupee) after the breakout above 54.5 which was symmetrical triangle pattern has given a sharp upside move where it has also shown the formation of the Elliot wave pattern. Currently it is trading in the wave five after testing the lower support of 55.7 Spot and is showing sigh of reversal. If recent support of 55.7 is holding then wave five will either test 100% of wave I which can test the level of 73.2 per$ and further if sustain above 73.5 is seen then my next expected target is 79.5 which is series rise from 100 – 142 – 185 where 185% rise is expected. Looking at the working shown below 185% comes to 79.5 per $ spot market in near to medium term.

Some fundamentals which will support the expected target of 79.5 $ are as follow.

            1: Expected Oil price to test 153$ from Current price of 114$ per barrel can check Blog update on 9^th Aug 13

            2: Fall in Financial Market where Nifty is expected to test 4500 soon which will bring outflow of FII.

            3: Expecting some Debt Default coming soon, this will hit Banking sector soon.

 

 

Principle of Elliot wave explained

 

Basic Sequence

There are two types of waves: impulse and corrective. Impulse waves move in the direction of the larger degree wave. When the larger degree wave is up, advancing waves are impulsive and declining waves are corrective. When the larger degree wave is down, impulse waves are down and corrective waves are up. Impulse waves, also called motive waves, move with the bigger trend or larger degree wave. Corrective waves move against the larger degree wave.

 

Three Guidelines

There are numerous guidelines, but this article will focus on three key guidelines. In contrast to rules, guidelines should hold true most of the time, not necessarily all of the time.

Guideline 1: When Wave 3 is the longest impulse wave, Wave 5 will approximately equal Wave 1.

Guideline 2: The forms for Wave 2 and Wave 4 will alternate. If Wave 2 is a sharp correction, Wave 4 will be a flat correction. If Wave 2 is flat, Wave 4 will be sharp.

Guideline 3: After a 5-wave impulse advance, corrections (abc) usually end in the area of prior Wave 4 low.

Three Rules

Believe it or not, there are only three rules when it comes to interpreting Elliott Wave. There are many guidelines, but only three HARD rules. These are unbreakable. Guidelines, on the other hand, are bendable and subject to interpretation. Furthermore, these rules only apply to a 5-wave impulse sequence. Correction, which are much more complicated, are given more leeway when it comes to interpretation.

Rule 1: Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.

Rule 2: Wave 3 can never be the shortest of the three impulse waves.

Rule 3: Wave 4 can never overlap Wave 1.

USDINR trading Call Support @ 65.5 tgt 70 again and 74 - 78

Yesterday buy call in USDINR @ 66.5 CMP is 67 tested tgt 3 ,,,,

* USDINR MCX BUY @ 67.00 STOP @ 66.85 TGT 67.15 67.25 67.35 - 9/3/2013 9:15


Market has tested support of 65.5 support now makret will revert from here and slowely will test 70 again and then 74 - 78 in near term,.. taking diwali for 78 lvl,., Gold is again a buy ,, Silver and Gold both will rock...

10 main reasons which are responsible for the Indian rupee

10 main reasons which are responsible for the Indian rupee -- which has depreciated as much as 16 percent this year -- to touch new lows each passing day:

-Widening Current Account Deficit: This is resulting in creating more actual as well as speculative demand for the dollar and other convertible currencies.

-Policy Inaction: Perception of lack of clarity on policy front is also fanning speculative demand wherein the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on one day said it will tighten liquidity and on yet another said it will inject $1 billion in the market.

-Low Forex Reserves: India's foreign exchange (Forex) reserves are enough to cover imports of seven month only. The forex reserves have declined in the recent months. Due to low reserves, the RBI can't intervene aggressively in the currency markets.

-Economic Growth Slowdown: India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth fell to a decade low of 5 percent in 2012-13. The situation is unlikely to improve much this year. Foreign investors are pulling money out of the Indian markets due to slow growth.

-Dependence on Foreign money: India's current account deficit was financed by foreign money for the last many years. Withdrawal of money by overseas investors is leading to the weakness in the rupee.

-Recovery in the US: The slow but steady recovery in the US is making the greenback stronger against other currencies.

-Stimulus Withdrawal: Indications that the US may withdraw or ease the fiscal stimulus package that has been on since a few years ago to tide over the economic crisis there, could potentially put the brakes on funds for developing economies.

-Capital Controls: The decision by the Reserve Bank and the government to impose temporary restrictions on capital flows has not gone down well with the markets, as it will not only discourage Indian companies from investing abroad, but also foreign firms from pumping money into India.

-Trends in other markets: The rupee is also following the trend seen in the currencies of other emerging economies such as Brazil, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa.

-Speculative Trading: Speculative trading in the currency markets is putting further pressure on the Indian rupee.

Aug. 31, 2013, 4:06 p.m. EDT Obama to ask Congress to approve strike on Syria President: U.S. can’t turn a blind eye to chemical attack on civilians Stories You Might Like Putin rejects U.S. claim on Syria chemical attack Unlikely allies in Congress question Syria moves Obama: will seek congressional approval for strike

Reuters

As Vice President Joseph Biden listens, President Barack Obama says he has decided the U.S. should strike Syrian government targets in response to a deadly chemical weapons attack, but would seek congressional approval of any military action.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- President Barack Obama on Saturday said he has decided that military action against Syria is necessary, but will seek congressional authorization on the use of U.S. force to retaliate for what he called “the worst chemical weapons attack of the 21st century.”

Click to Play

Obama: Ready to act against Syria, but will seek authorization

President Obama said he favors taking military action against Syria for the alleged use of chemical weapons against its own people, but he will seek authorization from Congress before acting.

“After careful deliberation, I have decided that the United States should take military action against Syrian regime targets,” Obama said in a speech in the White House Rose Garden.

Obama said he believes he has the legal authority to order the strikes without consulting Congress.

“But having made my decision as commander-in-chief based on what I am convinced is our national security interests, I’m also mindful that I’m the president of the world’s oldest constitutional democracy,” Obama said. “I’ve long believed that our power is rooted not just in our military might, but in our example as a government of the people, by the people, and for the people. And that’s why I’ve made a second decision: I will seek authorization for the use of force from the American people’s representatives in Congress.”

Congressional leaders have said they would schedule a debate and then a vote on the use of military force against Syria when lawmakers return from their current recess, Obama said. Unless congressional leaders call back members sooner, the House and Senate are scheduled to be back at work on Sept. 9.

Speaking hours after a United Nations weapons inspections team left Syria, Obama said the Aug. 21 attack that the U.S. contends killed 1,429 people, including at least 426 children, represents a national security risk, and poses a risk to nations bordering Syria, including Israel.

“I know well we are weary of war,” Obama said in the televised speech. “That’s why we’re not contemplating putting our troops in the middle of someone else’s war. But we are the United States of America, we can not and must not turn a blind eye to what happened in Damascus,” he added.

Reuters

House Speaker John Boehner

“We are glad the president is seeking authorization for any military action in Syria in response to serious, substantive questions being raised,” said a joint statement issued by Republican House leaders including SpeakerJohn Boehner of Ohio and Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia.

“In consultation with the president, we expect the House to consider a measure the week of Sept. 9. This provides the president time to make his case to Congress and the American people.” the statement added.

In the Middle East, the Arab League has scheduled an urgent meeting for Sunday to discuss the Syrian situation.

Many Middle Eastern nations, assuming the U.S. will launch military strikes on Syria, are advising their citizens to leave the country.

Obama would be the second Western leader to ask his legislature to approve military action against the Syrian government, which has been embroiled in a civil war for more than two years.

On Thursday, Parliament rejected British Prime Minister David Cameron’s call for action against Syria. 

Kate Gibson is a reporter for MarketWatch, based in New York.

EURUSD Bear Flag Pattern Formation first support @ 1.2750 then 1.1800

Bear Flag is a sharp, strong volume decline, several days of sideways to higher price action on much weaker volume followed by a second, sharp decline to new lows on strong volume. 
The technical target for a bear flag pattern is derived by subtracting the height of the flag pole from the eventual breakout level at point (e). 
Even though flags and pennants are common formations, identification guidelines should not be taken lightly. It is important that flags and pennants are preceded by a sharp advance or decline. Without a sharp move, the reliability of the formation becomes questionable and trading could carry added risk. Look for volume confirmation on the initial move, consolidation and resumption to augment the robustness of pattern identification.

Bearish flags are comprised of higher tops and higher bottoms. "Bear" flags also have a tendency to slope against the trend. Their trendlines run parallel as well.

• Sharp Move: To be considered a continuation pattern, there should be evidence of a prior trend. Flags and pennants require evidence of a sharp advance or decline on heavy volume. These moves usually occur on heavy volume and can contain gaps. This move usually represents the first leg of a significant advance or decline and the flag/pennant is merely a pause.
• Flagpole: The flagpole is the distance from the first resistance or support break to the high or low of the flag/pennant. The sharp advance (or decline) that forms the flagpole should break a trend line or resistance/support level. A line extending up from this break to the high of the flag/pennant forms the flagpole.
• Flag: A flag is a small rectangle pattern that slopes against the previous trend. If the previous move was up, then the flag would slope down. If the move was down, then the flag would slope up. Because flags are usually too short in duration to actually have reaction highs and lows, the price action just needs to be contained within two parallel trend lines.
• Break: For a bullish flag or pennant, a break above resistance signals that the previous advance has resumed. For a bearish flag or pennant, a break below support signals that the previous decline has resumed.

Targets: The length of the flagpole can be applied to the resistance break or support break of the flag/pennant to estimate the advance or decline.

Looking at the chart EURUSD is trading below the critical resistance of 1.3425 and is expected to give a sharp continuation of down trend from current level. If the resistance of 1.5425 is holding and sustain trading is seen below 1.3200 will continue in negative trend where on lower side it will move and test the lower level where it can test the level of 1.2750 support level.  It will given breakdown at 1.2750 where point E is expected to test and sustain trading below 1.2750 will confirm the down side breakdown of the Bear Flag

Pattern Height of the Pole is 950 Pips (1.3700 – 1.2750). Immediately it is expected to test support at 1.2750 and Bear flag pattern breakdown is expected at same level. Sustain trading below 1.2750 will bring lower level target of 1.1800[(1.3700 – 1.2750)-1.2750] height of the Pole from the Breakdown point of 1.2750 level.

NIFTY positional view First 4500 then 2500 Bottom to test then 10100 - 11600

NIFTY positional view: First 4500 then 2500 Bottom to test  then Bull flag patter formation for target of 10100 and 11700 level CMP is 5340
NIfty base 1 starts from 900 and base 2 starts from 2500 where i am looking at Bull Flag Pattern with Base 1 and ecpected to test 2500 flag base. point D @ 2500 and then uptrend will continue. Where Breakout will be seen  6300 with target of 11700 in 10 years time by 2024 - 2025. Befor looking at higher target lower level are confirm with 2500 by  3nd or 4rd Quarter of 2014.

Rupee i am looking at 78 - 80 in near to medium term..