USDINR Falling Wedge (Reversal) Uptrend after crossover above 61.7 per$ in spot market.

USDINR Falling Wedge (Reversal)

The Falling Wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bias, falling wedges definitely slope down and have a bullish bias. However, this bullish bias cannot be realized until a resistance breakout.

The falling wedge can also fit into the continuation category. As a continuation pattern, the falling wedge will still slope down, but the slope will be against the prevailing uptrend. As a reversal pattern, the falling wedge slopes down and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), falling wedges are regarded as bullish patterns.

1.        Prior Trend: To qualify as a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. Ideally, the falling wedge will form after an extended downtrend and mark the final low. The pattern usually forms over a 3-6 month period and the preceding downtrend should be at least 3 months old.

2.        Upper Resistance Line: It takes at least two reaction highs to form the upper resistance line, ideally three. Each reaction high should be lower than the previous highs.

3.        Lower Support Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower support line. Each reaction low should be lower than the previous lows.

4.        Contraction: The upper resistance line and lower support line converge to form a cone as the pattern matures. The reaction lows still penetrate the previous lows, but this penetration becomes shallower. Shallower lows indicate a decrease in selling pressure and create a lower support line with less negative slope than the upper resistance line.

5.        Resistance Break: Bullish confirmation of the pattern does not come until the resistance line is broken in convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait for a break above the previous reaction high for further confirmation. Once resistance is broken, there can sometimes be a correction to test the newfound support level.

6.        Volume: While volume is not particularly important on rising wedges, it is an essential ingredient to confirm a falling wedge breakout. Without an expansion of volume, the breakout will lack conviction and be vulnerable to failure.

As with rising wedges, the falling wedge can be one of the most difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. When lower highs and lower lows form, as in a falling wedge, a security remains in a downtrend. The falling wedge is designed to spot a decrease in downside momentum and alert technicians to a potential trend reversal. Even though selling pressure may be diminishing, demand does not win out until resistance is broken. As with most patterns, it is important to wait for a breakout and combine other aspects of technical analysis to confirm signals.

6 ways a default could hurt the world : By Maureen Farrell @CNNMoneyInvest October 15, 2013: 4:28 PM ET

A real U.S. debt default is expected to lead to financial Armageddon.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Top execs at big U.S. banks have said that a debt default by the United States is unthinkable and probably won't happen.

But many financial institutions have admitted that they're still engaged in debt disaster planning.

Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) CFO John Gerspach said Tuesday morning that the bank "remains hopeful" a deal can be worked out to avoid a default. But he added that "hope is not a plan" and that the bank has prepared for different contingencies over the past few weeks.

So what could happen in a worst-case scenario if the U.S. actually defaults? It's impossible to predict. But here are six ways that financial markets could respond if the U.S. stops paying all of its bills -- even briefly.

Two words of warning though: Thursday's widely quoted debt ceiling deadline may not really be the drop-dead date to get something done. Congress and the Treasury Department could have some wiggle room.

Second, reader discretion should be advised. These outcomes are all pretty terrifying.

Related: Reid says downgrade could be imminent

1. A global stock market crash: Investors have been mostly ambivalent about the government shutdown and the looming default. The Dow is up about 0.5% since the shutdown began earlier this month.

But nearly all analysts and investors I've interviewed over the past two weeks say that if the U.S. fails to make an interest payment on its debt, stock markets around the world will immediately crash. Some fear a quick drop of 1,000 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Stock markets in Asia and Europe would likely be hit too. No stock market would be insulated.

2. A global recession: Plunging stock prices do not necessarily cause economic recessions. But in the worst-case scenario of a technical default on U.S. debt, the blow to world markets would be so extreme that some fear an almost immediate economic slowdown.

"If there's a one day fall in the markets, that can be reversed. But a fall in the world's stock markets and the dislocations that would be caused by non-payment on U.S. debt, that cannot be reversed," said Komal Sri-Kumar, President of the global consulting firm Sri-Kumar Global Strategies. "You will see global growth come to a halt."

Related: The real debt ceiling risk

3. Money market funds collapse: Investors once considered the assets in money market funds as safe as the deposits they put in bank coffers. But the 2008 financial crisis taught the world scary lessons about this market.

After Lehman Brother's unraveled, one money market fund, the Reserve Fund, suddenly didn't have enough cash to give money back to all its investors. In financial parlance, the Reserve Fund "broke the buck" meaning that it didn't have a $1 on hand for every dollar invested.

Get ready for a replay if the U.S. defaults. How would it happen? Andrew Lo, a finance professor at MIT, said that if the U.S. defaults and stock prices drop, investors will race to pull out cash from money market funds. The drop in asset prices from a stock market plunge combined with redemption requests will cause many money market funds to have a funding shortage.

"The consequences could be dangerous for many banks if cash leaves money market accounts and goes out of the financial system entirely for even a short period of time," said Sri-Kumar.

4. A run on the banks: If money market funds are forced to tell investors they can't take out cash while they rebalance their portfolios, investors will immediately race to get their hands on money from wherever they can find it. Major institutions will be forced to protect what they have on hand and will start hoarding it.

The U.S. government guarantees deposits of up to $250,000 through the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. But just like in the financial crisis, that safeguard will quickly feel insufficient.

5. Some financial institutions will fail: Only the strongest will survive. The government will only bail out so many institutions. In 2008, huge savings and loan Washington Mutual failed and was sold in a fire sale to JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500). Another huge bank, Wachovia, survived but needed to be rescued by Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500). Lehman didn't make it.

If a U.S. default happens and sets the dominoes we've already described in motion, more institutions will probably fail. Most banks have been preparing for this crisis, but there's only so much that contingency planning can do.

Another key wrinkle is the potential collapse of the so-called repo market. Banks and broker-dealers use Treasuries as collateral for most short-term lending, usually overnight loans. Repos are used as the financial backing for most types of trading and derivative contracts.

If the value of short-term Treasuries suddenly plunge and interest rates spike, this market could become destabilized quickly, leading to major losses or a cash crunch among broker-dealers.

6. Lending seizes up: The best FICO score ever will be unlikely to get you a mortgage, auto loan or small business loan if the U.S. defaults. If investors and corporations clamor to redeem cash, banks and other financial institutions will hoard the cash they have and will be wary of lending it out.

Rates of long-term Treasuries might actually fall in the wake of a U.S. default. But that won't mean that consumers will pay less to borrow.

In the fall of 2008, investors raced into U.S. Treasuries, which were seen as the only safe haven. Oddly, many analysts and bond traders expect a similar response to a debt default because there's no clear safe alternative to Treasuries.

But after Lehman Brothers collapsed, only U.S. government intervention got banks to start lending again. 

First Published: October 15, 2013: 4:28 PM ET

NIFTY TOPOUT @ 6100 SPOT AND fUTURE @ 6150

NIFTY TOPOUT @ 6100 SPOT AND fUTURE @ 6150

INFY result update chart formation Inverted Flag

Expectation : If INFY is failing to trade above recent high of 3200 today and at the end of the day closing is seen around 3050 and below the same around 3020 its confirm market is going to give a gapdown opening and will test 2850 - 2750 level immidiately and in near to medoum term it wil test lower support level around 2200 where multiple support is seen. 

Scenerio 1 : Inverted Flag pole difference is seen from 3500 to 2160 = 1340 points, support breakdown is seen at 2180 and sustain on weekly chart below 2180 will give target of 840 level on lower sdie in long term. 

Scenerio 2 : If we take rectangle pattern formation where the trading range of rectangle is from 3000 higher resistance to 2600 support where the height of the rectangle is 400 points and breakdown below 2160 weekly clsoing will bring level of 1760 (3000 - 2200 = 400) (2180 - 400 = 1760) as medium term level. .

Contra : If sustai ntrading is seen above 3200 on clsoing basis will retest higher level of 3500 in near to medium term. Tille the time below 3200 on weekly clsoing expectation it will give a sharp correction as might get a hard hit due to rupee fluctuation which has hit the Profitability as this is just a personal view.

Trade on with stop of ressitance and support given, and its investors call at the end of the say. 

Happy Trading.
Jai Mata Dee... 

Black Friday expected on 11th October 2013, infy result CMP is 3145

* INFY SELL @ 3145 STOP @ 3165 TGT 3100 3050 3000 - 10/10/2013 13:34
result tomorrow @ 8.30 :: lookng at sharp correction ...

* Bank Nifty SELL @ 10400 STOP @ 10460 TGT 10330 10240 10150 - 10/10/2013 13:37
Positional...

* Nifty SELL @ 6055 STOP @ 6085 TGT 6020 5980 5930 10/10/2013 13:38
Positional ... 

GBPUSD Head & Shoulder pattern formation

A Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forms after an uptrend, and its completion marks a trend reversal. The pattern contains three successive peaks with the middle peak (head) being the highest and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being low and roughly equal. The reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form support, or a neckline.

As its name implies, the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is made up of a left shoulder, a head, a right shoulder, and a neckline. Other parts playing a role in the pattern are volume, the breakout, price target and support turned resistance. We will look at each part individually, and then put them together with some examples.

1.        Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior uptrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior uptrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (or any reversal pattern for that matter).

2.        Left Shoulder: While in an uptrend, the left shoulder forms a peak that marks the high point of the current trend. After making this peak, a decline ensues to complete the formation of the shoulder (1). The low of the decline usually remains above the trend line, keeping the uptrend intact.

3.        Head: From the low of the left shoulder, an advance begins that exceeds the previous high and marks the top of the head. After peaking, the low of the subsequent decline marks the second point of the neckline (2). The low of the decline usually breaks the uptrend line, putting the uptrend in jeopardy.

4.        Right Shoulder: The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline.

5.        Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two low points, the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bearishness—a downward slope is more bearish than an upward slope. Sometimes more than one low point can be used to form the neckline.

6.        Volume: As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV,  Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. This decrease in volume and the new high of the head, together, serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder.

7.        Neckline Break: The head and shoulders pattern is not complete and the uptrend is not reversed until neckline support is broken. Ideally, this should also occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion in volume.

8.        Support Turned Resistance: Once support is broken, it is common for this same support level to turn into resistance. Sometimes, but certainly not always, the price will return to the support break, and offer a second chance to sell. 

9.        Price Target: After breaking neckline support, the projected price decline is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the top of the head. This distance is then subtracted from the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered as well. These factors might include previous support levels, Fibonacci retracements, or long-term moving averages.

GBPUSD has given a confirm breakdown below the neck lint in 4hr time frame at 1.6020 and till the time this resistance of 1.6020 is holding on closing basis I am expecting GBOUSD to test the level of 1.5700 – 1.5550 level in near term. First resistance at 1.5620 and major resistance and stop advice at 1.6130 above the right shoulder.

Bear Flag Pattern Formation Breakdown @ 29900 and 29500 closing basis tgt 27275 - 24650

Bear Flag Pattern Formation Breakdown @ 29900 and 29500 closing basis tgt 27275 - 24650