One Pager Positional Report on AUDUSD.

AUD/USD SELL @ 0.9230 stop @ 0.9500 TGT 0.8850 – 0.8500 – 0.8150 - 0.7700

            AUSDUSD after giving breakdown below 1.0010 which was the support trend line of the Symmetrical triangle has tested the support level of 0.8850, where this fall can be considered as wave I of the Elliot wave theory. After testing the support at 0.8850 we have seen a short pullback in price and tested the level of 0.9755 which was 50% retracement of wave I from point of 1.0580 to 0.8850 testing the level of 0.9755. Sharp reversal is seen from the wave II and it’s in the continuation of the wave III, this wave III is in formation and is in inter wave. Currently it’s in inter wave iii where reversal is seen from 0.9460 which has retraced by 61.8% of inter wave i and is in inter wave formation of wave iii where lower side is expected at 0.8400 to 0.8170. This is calculated by a-b-c pattern of 61.8% retracement theory where 0.8400 comes to be the 100% expansion and 0.8170 comes to 121.8% expansion of inter wave i. This level of 0.8170 – 0.8400 will be the completion of wave III in larger wave cycle and will give a short pullback in form of wave IV but not beyond 0.8800 and reversal in price might be seen from 0.8500 – 0.8600 range and will enter in wave V of the downside wave pattern formation.

            Taking the height of the triangle which is from 1.1080 to the bottom of 0.8770, difference of which is coming to 2310 points and breaking below the support trend line at 1.0010 expected target as per breakdown is seen at 0.7700 level in long term. 

USDINR bottom out npt expected below 60per$

USDINR bottom out not expected below 60 per$

NIFTY and BANK NIFTY chart Updates

Bank Nifty April if holds the higher level of 12700 on closing basis will test the lower level of 11500 - 10500 - 9500 on lower side. CMP is 12580 

Nifty is forming Bullish pennant formation after the uptrend and is showing sign of hhigher to and higher bottom formation. if the higher resistance level of 6610 is holding with stop loss of 6640 can wait for lower support of 6520 as first support and further trading below 6520 will confirm the down trend where it will test the level of 6300 - 6220 on lower side. 

One pager report on WTI OIL Positional Buy for 107.5 - 110.75

WTI OIL Buy @ 99.6 CMP Stop @ 98 TGT 102 – 104.5 – 107.5 – 110.75

Looking from the above chart WTI Oil has fallen from the level of 112.2$ and tested the lower level of 91.75$, where after a short pull back in form of profit booking till 100.7$ retested the lower level of 91.40 which has given a formation of Double bottom. This pattern indicated reversal in price and taking a small resistance at midpoint at 100.7 continued the uptrend and tested the level of 105.2$ from where reversal in prices were seen. Generally when the pattern formation is formed and thereafter directional movement is seen it indicates the movement of wave pattern formation, either this might be in the form of a-b-c wave or can show sign of 5 wave pattern formation. Initially we will take it as Elliot wave pattern  of impulsive wave as its just completing the wave (ii) which has retraced by 61.8% of the wave (i) and is showing sign of entering in wave (iii) where we can look at minimum of 107.5 which is 76.4% of wave (i) from bottom of wave (ii), OR might test the level of 110.75 which comes to 100% retracement of wave (i) on higher side. After testing the higher level of 107.5$ to 110.75$ which is near the top of 112.2$ where the market has started falling, slight correction can be expected in the form of wave (iv) and then reenter in uptrend in the Elliot wave pattern formation.

Pattern refers to the wave patterns or formations, while ratio (the relationship between numbers, particularly the Fibonacci series) is useful for measuring waves. To use the theory in everyday trading, the trader determines the main wave, or supercycle, goes long and then sells or shorts the position as the pattern runs out of steam and a reversal is imminent.

·         The Five-Wave Pattern:     In its most basic form the Elliott Wave Theory states that all market action follow a repetitive rhythm of a five waves in the directions of the main trend followed by three corrective waves (a "5-3" move)

·         Fibonacci Price Extensions

Fibonacci price extensions are used by traders to determine areas where they will wish to take profits in the next leg of an up-or downtrend. Percentage extension levels are plotted as horizontal lines above/below the previous trend move. The most popular extension levels are 61.8%, 100.0%, 138.2% and 161.8%.

Rajeev Darji; +91-9820987859 : Blog – rajeevdarji.blogspot.com

Gold Positional Buy for 1936 - 2186 Level CMP is 1358

Russian Flag Raised as Gunmen Seize Ukraine’s Crimean Parliament By Henry Meyer and Jake Rudnitsky Feb 27, 2014 1:35 PM GMT+0530

Pro-Russian demonstrators wave Russian flags during a protest in front of a local government building in Simferopol, Crimea, Ukraine, on Feb. 26, 2014.

An armed group occupied the parliament and government buildings in the capital of the Crimea region, replacing the Ukrainian flag with Russia’s tricolor.

The occupiers have yet to make any demands, Lilia Muslimova, a spokeswoman for the head of the Crimean Tatar council, said by phone from Simferopol, the regional capital. While the situation is “crisislike,” the attackers aren’t acting aggressively, Crimean Prime Minister Anatoliy Mogilev said on ATR television today.

Interior Ministry troops and police are on alert and have cordoned off the block around the Crimean parliament building, Ukraine’s acting Interior Minister Arsen Avakov wrote on his Facebook page.

Events in Kiev that led to last week’s ouster of Viktor Yanukovych are rattling parts of Ukraine’s Russian-speaking east and south. Hundreds of pro-Russian protesters faced off yesterday against thousands of Ukrainian Tatars in Simferopol, with fistfights breaking out. Russia’s Black Sea fleet leases its main base from Ukraine in Sevastopol, 80 kilometers (50 miles) from the regional capital.

“Provocateurs are on the march,” Avakov wrote. “It’s time for cool heads, the consolidation of healthy forces and precise actions.”

Talks with the gunmen were scheduled to begin at 9 a.m., Mogilev said.

Photographer: Darko Vojinovic/AP Photo

Barricades stand in front of a local government building with a banner which reeds:... Read More

To contact the reporters on this story: Henry Meyer in Moscow at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net; Jake Rudnitsky in Moscow at jrudnitsky@bloomberg.net

Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014 Wednesday, 26 Feb 2014 03:58 AM

It is only a matter of time before the stock market plunges by 50% or more, according to several reputable experts.

“We have no right to be surprised by a severe and imminent stock market crash,” explains Mark Spitznagel, a hedge fund manager who is notorious for his hugely profitable billion-dollar bet on the 2008 crisis. “In fact, we must absolutely expect it."

Unfortunately Spitznagel isn’t alone.

“We are in a gigantic financial asset bubble,” warns Swiss adviser and fund manager Marc Faber. “It could burst any day.” 

Faber doesn’t hesitate to put the blame squarely on President Obama’s big government policies and the Federal Reserve’s risky low-rate policies, which, he says, “penalize the income earners, the savers who save, your parents — why should your parents be forced to speculate in stocks and in real estate and everything under the sun?” 

Billion-dollar investor Warren Buffett is rumored to be preparing for a crash as well. The “Warren Buffett Indicator,” also known as the “Total-Market-Cap to GDP Ratio,” is breaching sell-alert status and a collapse may happen at any moment. 

So with an inevitable crash looming, what are Main Street investors to do?

One option is to sell all your stocks and stuff your money under the mattress, and another option is to risk everything and ride out the storm.

But according to Sean Hyman, founder of Absolute Profits, there is a third option.

“There are specific sectors of the market that are all but guaranteed to perform well during the next few months,” Hyman explains. “Getting out of stocks now could be costly.”

How can Hyman be so sure?

He has access to a secret Wall Street calendar that has beat the overall market by 250% since 1968. This calendar simply lists 19 investments (based on sectors of the market) and 38 dates to buy and sell them, and by doing so, one could turn $1,000 into as much as $300,000 in a 10-year time frame. 

“But this calendar is just one part of my investment system,” Hyman adds. “I also have a Crash Alert System that is designed to warn investors before a major correction as well.”

(The Crash Alert System was actually programmed by one of the individuals who coded nuclear missile flight patterns during the Cold War so that it could be as close to 100% accurate as possible). 

Hyman explains that if the market starts to plunge, the Crash Alert System will signal a sell alert warning investors to go to cash. 

“You would have been able to completely avoid the 2000 and 2008 collapses if you were using this system based on our back-testing,” Hyman explains. “Imagine how much more money you would have if you had avoided those horrific sell-offs.”

One might think Sean is being too confident, but he has proven himself correct in front of millions of people time and time again. 

In a 2012 interview on Bloomberg Television, Hyman correctly predicted that Best Buy would drop down to $11 a share and then it would rally back up to $40 a share over the next few months. The stock did exactly what Hyman predicted.

Then, during a Fox Business interview with Gerri Willis in early 2013, he forecast that the market would rally to new highs of 15,000 despite the massive sell-off that was haunting investors. The stock market almost immediately rebounded and hit Hyman’s targets.

“A lot of people think I am lucky,” Sean said. “But it has nothing to do with luck. It has everything to do with certain tools I use. Tools like the secret Wall Street calendar and my Crash Alert System.”

With more financial uncertainty that ever, thousands of people are flocking to Hyman for his guidance. He has over 114,000 subscribers to his monthly newsletter, and his investment videos have been seen millions of times.

In a recent video, Hyman not only reveals the secret Wall Street calendar, he also shows how his Crash Alert System works so that anybody can follow in his footsteps (click here to watch it now).